Good Evening
I understand what your saying,And i know that earlier in the summer,You backed Kazzia which was 16/1 lto,I would never question your authority on this subject,More to the point i can,t,The thing that strikes me more than anything is,A good percentage of the time i can relate to your selections,It is mainly from your posts that i began to understand vdw (well i think i understand it) But over the last week or so you seem to have made some decisions that seem a little uncharacteristic,Maybe i still have a long way to go and it is me who is misunderstanding the situations regarding vdw,The strange thing is i'm getting it right,Please don't view this post as some kind of defamation of character,Because it most certainly is not,it's more out of confusion That i am posting

if i could have got 1/2 or better i would have backed T.C without any shadow of doubt,I watched the race and i believe they have got something in mind for this one,It was strange how it didn,t find much at the end after being hard held for most of the race,A bit smelly if you ask me.

Investor - I think the best way to approach the sp factor is to ask why was a horse such and such a price last time. If a well exposed older horse such as Cyfor Malta is sent off 16/1 in a handicap, it is unlikely to be a particularly consistent performer. If a younger horse switches from novice hurdles to handicap company and shows improved form then the sp is less of a factor as the horses true talents have probably been hidden from the general public gaze. This can only be sorted out by viewing it's overall form though.

It is interesting though, as ever, to note that by and large winning horses eventually get overbet in the future markets and fail to deliver. Your right to a certain degree with those such as Sir Desmond. They surprise us, then disappoint us next time.

One thing that has been noted in this bleak run is that an unusual amount of my selections have been backed off the boards and lost. This merely suggests that I have been falling into those pitfalls VDW said were there a bit too often recently. I actually dread being on over popular selections,especially when the tv experts make them certainties also. The sheer weight of money seems to slow the horse up

Who says weight doesn't matter?

Of course weight does matter,Iv'e mentioned just lately infact i keep banging on about it,Over the past couple of weeks a pattern seems to have emerged,Which i have classed as the second numerical picture,Wether it's the one vdw meant,I don't really know,It's based on mathematics,Percentages,Form and of course logic,Iv'e had a great month up to now using this formula,But i'm not sure wether iv'e systemised it,Obviously the very nature of this thread,Being the way it is i'm never really going to find out,And i won't put my thoughts up,Because i may be totally wrong and spoil it for those who have done a lot of research,e.g Fulham (bless him)But i must say what i have gleaned over the last fortnight is uncanny,Iv'e been told by a good source it's not vdw,If it isn't it's on hell of a crosscheck,Iv'e made a tidy sum of money this month But because of selections put up iv'e decided to stop betting for a while,Until i fully understand what iv'e found or researched it more thouroughally

Investor

Please feel under absolutely no inhibition on my account - if you want to spell out your thinking on second numerical pictures, just go right ahead. I shall be as interested as anyone to read it.

Since there has recently been talk of G.Hall and the early letters, I thought I would point out a couple of things that never seem to get mentioned.

It is clear from the dates that G Hall had made his further discoveries due to the letter involving Celtic Pleasure,Rifle Brigade,etc.

In this letter VDW uses the phrase "by my calculations.." and he also suggests that in Derrylins race we should note the 2nd Weth Nan and in Orchestras race the 2nd Welsh Dancer and also ponder the Scottish National on the same day.

The first thing that should be apparent with Welsh Dancer and Weth Nan was that they were both outside the first 5 in the forecast, but one of the 3 most consistent in the entire field. Both had also won on their last outing.

Before exploring any further into their significance, it is perhaps worth considering why in relation, Banswara was not mentioned in the Prominent King example. He was also outside of suggested area of the forecast, in fact he wasn't mentioned, but he had a consistency rating of 4 and therefore was one of the 3 most consistent in the entire field and had also won it's last race which was a class 4 event. Weth Nan had won class 49 LTO and Welsh Dancer class 6 LTO.

In Derrylins race there were 4 horses who had won their last race. They were in race class order - Derrylin 54, Weth Nan 49, Solanum 46 and Double Form 28. Their ability ratings in order were Solanum 41, Derrylin 31, Double Form 28 and Weth Nan 27.

In Orchestras race there were 3 horses who had won their last race. Greenjacket class 27, Orchestra 14 and Welsh Dancer 6. Their ability ratings were Orchestra 31, Greenjacket 17 and Welsh Dancer 15.

Prominent Kings race had just 2 winners last time out and they were Mr Kildare class 14 and Banswara class 4. Their ability ratings were Mr Kildare 11 and Banswara 7.

Hopefully enough data there for anyone without the full form to get their teeth into.

Nothing would give me greater pleasure than to put ALL my thoughts on this thread,I really mean that,But the one thing i don't want to do,Is spoil posters enjoyment of it all,Iv'e never really wanted it all spelling out,As i'm sure you haven't,And i certainly don't want to come across with the i'm better than you attitude,That johnd did recently,What i have gleaned is quite revealing,And may sway a lot of posters interpretation of vdw,Like i said to Guest I will research my findings,If they carry on in the same vein i will most certainly post the selections on here.If they do not i would most positively e.mail them or how i arrive at them to certain posters,For them to check out the credibility of them, yourself included,If it was found they were not vdw then they could most definately be used as a crosscheck.

Regarding JohnD,
I would like to correspond with him because he appears to know what he is talking about to me and swapping information may be rewarding to both of us.
He only has to look at "THE ANSWER TO GARY DUTCHING" thread started around January this year,"SWISH PAST THE POST" thread that succeeded that thread and later "SWISH'S LUSCITANIAS", where I proved I can pick winners at all prices and did very well naming losing favourites.
Addmitedly my recent attempt at forecasts was a bit of a disaster.
Anyway as you say, he can decide for himself,
Swish
p.s. if you think that backing horses like TEES COMPONENTS even if it had been as high as 1-2 and even if it had won, is a good idea, you're on the wrong track completely. Don't you realise that you have to get 90% strike rate at 1-2 to make 35% profit?
The amount of people who have tried and failed (including myself) must number thousands.

that was quite pleasant,I was expecting a bit more than that,You must be mellowing in your old age.R.E Tees Components that was only ONE example,There are of course plenty more at much better odds.

Swish may have mellowed but I've not. I see your still a lying sack of shit. And for God's sake learn to spell.

Ha HA HA

Jimmy
I think you could start a fight with a nun.

Well 4 bets last week and three lost, the only consolidation is that 2 came 2nd and one fell.

Investor
May i ask a polite question? Did you go to school or did you prefer to stay at home and work it out yourself? I for one would prefer to be tought. Also i don't understand why after making lots of money on your cross checks you have decided to stop betting.

And while we are asking questions?

Which was the better bet tees components or limestone lad?n I know.

Hope everyone is fine

Swish
hows your spreadsheet coming along, what info do you keep about each race and how long does it take to input the info?

Titus

When Guest mentioned "weight doesn't matter" in his last post, he was making a joke........about the weight of money..............
Read it again,
Cheers
Swish
p.s Hi Jimmy, nice to see you posting!

Hello mate.
On my main spreadsheets the columns go like this across the sheet:
DATE, COURSE, DISTANCE, GOING, CLASS (A,B,C,D,E ETC), CLASS IN PRIZE MONEY, NAME OF HORSE,POSITON LAST TIME OUT, HIGHEST RECENT SPEED FIG, HIGHEST SPEED FIG OVERALL, DIS WHERE SF WAS OBTAINED,CHANGE IN DISTANCE, CLASS AND PRIZE MONEY, GOING WHEN OBTAINED,CLASS OBTAINED (ABC ETC ) PRIZE MONEY WHEN OBTAINED,, HOW MANY RUNS AGO SF WAS OBTAINED, HOW LONG AGO SF WAS OBTAINED, OFFICIAL RATING (IN HCPS) AND SIMILAR INFO ABOUT WHEN GOT ETC, PRICE, RESULT, BANK, PROFIT/LOSS, NEW BANK.

It takes bloody hours!!!
Cheers
Swish

that is some shit vdw worked out,

look at aelred it beat all those classy horses.

cant wait to find one that is c/f!

I will post it as soon as i see one.

I missed off type of race, and type of race named horse got its best figs,
Cheers
Swish

Swish

You deserve all the success you receive .

titus

Now why the hell would I want to pick a fight with a nun? LOL
Most nuns I have met are basically honest, forthright people. Unlike Investor who's a lying sack of shit and so full of bullshit his shoes squelch when he walks, that's when he's not crawling. The guy is so low he could crawl under a snakes belly wearing a top hat. Why is he back here? Has even raceman had enough of him?

I sincerely hope you are a better judge of horses than you are of character.

Swish, I will be in touch, please be patient.

I agree with Titus you deserve success. That is one hell of a lot of work.