No need to apologise epi, hope your ok.

walter p wrote "The ratings themselves are not important in themselves but bear in mind that trainers must have something to go on. Whether it be an ability rating , a speed rating, or any form rating that one could use."
Surely a trainer goes by the o.r given to his horses by the official handicapper. He also has many horses in his yard to compare with each other.

Walter: Thanks.
Is anyone interseted in discussing how VDW theory accounts for Londoner? It's running in the 9:00 at Brighton.

We can discuss it now EP cos it won

VDW theory has nothing to do with Londoner in the 9,00 at Brighton. He would not have considered the race.
But don't let that stop you from having a discussion.

Garstonf: Look at the horse's history.

This is a horse who's always had ability, but it's been hidden for a bl***y long time. They seem to have found the key (oops, possibly a poor choice of phrase!) around 7/8f on firm ground. It does help that he's now running off 53 having run well when rated in the 90's not that long ago.
Londoner was consistent (ly moderate) for a long spell but has put together four decent runs.

Rob

I think that the 2yo list method demands that after winning, the candidates be removed from the list?

If they are removed then Castlton 345A is not a bet. Neither is Peeress 400T.

JIB,
That is correct,although I am interested in how Peeress runs today.It is an interesting little handicap.

Ascot today,and I would have Haafhd as a good thing.

I also think Six Perfections is the most likely winner,in her race.

Pipedreamer
I also had Haafhd, as my only bet of the day.
R Hills said after the race that he was mystified as to why he didn't win. IMO he just didn't stay over this c/d at this level.
Although some pundits called it a steady early pace, the time was only 0.5 secs outside the course record, and he was still in front 1/2 a furlong from home.
After the race I know, but the writing was on the wall from his last 2 races, both over 8f, he had them won before the 7f pole.
He has an Eclipse entry, but hopefully he will run in the Sussex Stakes.

See what happens when you post them up before the off?!

I looked at Pipedreamer's trio, and backed Peeress and Haafhd.

Johnd,Black cat,
I backed Haafhd,my thoughts on looking again,are perhaps Azamour has improved more,as he hasn't ran as often as Haafhd,but you could be right,it did look that way.

Six Perf,well you would imagine it should be in front of Soviet Song,but still there you go.

Black cat,it's much easier to put them up afterwards lol.

Although Haafdh was the VDW selection, I left it alone because of Barry Hills' poor record at the course.
I will almost certainly leave Rakti alone on Wednesday, but Thursday could be promising with the obvious Punctilious.

Haafdh
Did not reach out on the going.I have followed him from last year, he needs good going to show himself, & his acceleration.
Bio

quote:

---

Originally posted by Lee:
JIB,

Here's a few to get your teeth in to:

Castleton
Capped For Victory
Poise
Mountain meadow
Dakota Blackhills
Take a Bow
Latif
Cape Vincent
Maaloof
Notable Guest
Buckeye wonder
Maraakeb
St Francis Wood
Hills Spitfire
Peeress

---

I see you had a 8/1 winner in the last race at Goodwood tonight.

Midnight Ballard romps home at 6/4,and I didn't get an opportunity to back it,see page 643 and 644,I couldn't believe how bad it ran last time,and can't believe I missed it today.

Pipedreamer
I didn't have a bet today, but I did consider MB the likely winner. (The only reason I even looked at this race was the lack of opportunity elsewhere!).
Some of my reasoning;
In the context of this race he was consistent,(Top - if you ignore his last run).
He had the best form in the race, (Clear on ratings, and in the best class).
He had shown capability. (His best form this season had been on a R/H 7f, g/f with an uphill finish, very similar to today.
He was also dropped well in class and placed to win in almost ideal circumstances.
His lto run was poor, but was completely out of context with his previous form. His jockey also took the unusual step of informing the stewards that he didn't act on the g/f ground on that day, which is open to a number of interpretations, but does suggest that connections had an eye to the future.

There were other aspects which I am not prepared to discuss on here, and while not strong enough for a bet in my view, surely a reasonable bet for anyone supporting horses from a list to follow?

johnd
if his last run,had seen him beaten fair and square,then fair enough,but through a number of vdw's examples,he was prepared to forgive a very bad run.As you point out the jockeys comments last time were also significant.I was at a funeral this morning,and did not have an opportunity to look at the racing.

This evening,Topkamp looked to be a vdw selection,except for the prohibitive price,but the race was a farce,developing into a 2.5 furlong sprint.I notice that vdw hardly ever seemed to have a selection in sprint races.

Tuppenycat:
This has just been posted at RSUK "My advice to anyone seeking the 'key' is to study the VDW letters prior to the G Hall letter Jan 11, 1979 as the solution is there in the text staring you in the face you just have to read what is written." Is all the relevent material already on your "new EXTRA" thread and if there's any missing are you able to add it?

BlackCat:
Before getting carried away by Fulham's eulogies of Guest have a look at the "80% challenge" thread.