MTOTO
I hadn't realised that Gummy's largesse had extended itself to a pardon for former deserters, particularly in view of the nature of their abscondment. I will, however, answer some of your points, but will, in future, be even more careful what I post on this thread.
Point by point:
The need to study former examples is superfluous to understanding his basic method, as he himself pointed out, the answer is simple. It is a case of an ounce of wisdom being worth more than pounds of intellect, and those that fail to appreciate that are lost before they begin.
Gatwick would have been a VDW selection, Mine wouldn't, something I can be sure of, but you obviously can't.
As for the people who have written in far more detail than I, they may have written far more than I, but, as JIB points out, much of it meaningless pap, done to cover their own ineptitude with the method.
I defy you to find, anywhere on this thread, separately or collectively, anyone who has given more detail on the Roushayd example than there is is my one reply to Walter P. You won't, because that is not the nature of you or your colleagues, you are takers, not givers.
I have shown a willingness to share some of what I know, without all this tripe about buying old form books and spending years dissecting races. I have indicated quite clearly where to look,what to look for, and even how to look at it, along with providing recent examples that anyone with a computer can check. Far different from those of you who thought you had some of the answers, and decided to keep them to themselves by forming a private club.
I presume, by your return to this thread, that you are no nearer to the answer now than when you took your selfish actions, maybe there is a God in Heaven?

Lifes a bitch and all that,stone bonking last,can't believe it.

Selected via the vdw 2/3 year old method,as outlined in Systematic Betting,thought he was placed to win today,but obviously I was very WRONG.

Nofinepix -

This link, is just the Kiddys section of VDW there is some serious horse racing study fully atavailible from his other (and later) writing -

johnd has put a lot of work into the subject ,and you should look carefully at his contributions !!


Now that this thread has been opened up to a wider membership - I should warn you that it should come with - A COMPULSORY HEALTH WARNING !!

Watch out for Fireworks !!

The vdwers of these old arguments replied that the AR was not to be used on its own being part of a more complex structure, without being immodest I think my reply to that was quite good:

"Fulham,

If I accept that despite its demonstrable inaccuracy the AR works perfectly when a component part of the vdw methodology then I must also accept that I can get a thief to guard my property.

Whilst the arrangement may work satisfactorily for a certain period giving the illusion of tranquility, circumstances will arise where I am at grevious loss.


And please do not think me flippant when I say that the last time I read of anyone using flawed parts for their creation it was in a book by Mary Shelley."

Nofinepix,

In no particular order and not exhaustive:

Baronet - joint 10th of 19
Swiss Made – 2nd of 10
Battlement – joint 7th of 10
Little Nugget – last of 10
Orchestra – 4th of 10
Derrylin – 4th of 11
Celtic Pleasure – 2nf of 12
Rifle Brigade – 3rd of 5
PROMINENT KING – 7th of 16
Love From Verona – 11th of 14

I apologise for using VDW’s examples as proof that not all his selections were top-rated on ability, but thought they would bear out the point more conclusively.

What the above do have in common though is that they are all consistent on his consistency rating, however, not all his selections were!

Make sure your mind is completely open where VDW is concerned.

JonhD,

It is obvious by your tone you really don't want this thread to progress. I didn't want to leave this thread, why would I as I helped start it.

You seemed to think when we left the thread would resume. I think the last few months have shown you to be very mistaken. I do wonder if that was your hope, and you would become a big fish in a very little pound.

John if you think Mine wasn't a VDW type selection, I'm afraid you know less than I thought. Perhaps you would like to explain why you think he wasn't. Then again by saying nothing you can never be proven wrong.

Re your outstanding post, it says nothing that can't be found in Systematic Betting. By your lack of an answer about the course I take it you have none.

You are correct my return to the thread is to learn as much as I can from you. I just hope you don't lose the scrape of paper your knowledge is written on. The reason I returned is because of your stupid remarks about not looking at, and understanding the old examples.

In all fairness I think JIB has a better grasp of VDW than you!

Be Lucky (although I think you will need more than luck)

JIB,

Thanks - how are things with you? Well I hope.

JIB,

This, I reckon, is (probably) what VDW meant by looking for a winner in the race, and not of the race. It makes you think completely differently and it forces you to start asking questions why!

I’ve got My Renee listed to run tomorrow at Leopardstown first time out against the opposite sex. I’m expecting her to improve at 4.

PKBOY
"Trojan,
It is not correct to state that Pre-race selections have not been freely posted on this forum."

Where did I state that?

I said "It is indeed refreshing for someone to post a VDW selection BEFORE race time."

Which it is in recent terms. I have not read all 644 pages - so undoubtedly there has been some ante post discussion in the past.

Besides, my comment was meant to be a positive one, hopefully to encourage Pipedreamer. Not a negative one.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Trojan,

I wish that Three Legs would come back as he used to be a great help on this thread with his bucket and mop cleaning up all the bad blood that is spilt.

Dont use the pesticide spray just yet Gummy !

We are getting some entertainment from all of this .

Thanks Lee, I ve got Vanderlin 745G (having run a quick time last season) on my list. Kalamans breeding says that he was more than twice as likely to win at ltos 9f than tomorrows mile.

JIB
An excellent summary of Rooster Booster's career, and a telling blow against ability ratings as a basis for selection.

Mtoto
I think it is plain that I do wish this thread to progress, which is why I am so worried about the return of you and your fellow thieves.
The only 'outstanding' thing about my reply to Walter was that it gave a straight, uncomplicated, and honest answer to his query about Roushayd, find me a post from any of your band that did the same. You won't!

JIB,

I had a look at the 7.45 G as Kalaman is on my list from the St james’s Palace Stakes. My view is that it was more to do with the track, both last time out, and on previous starts, rather than the distance – I think the flatter Goodwood run-in will suit much better. Not for backing though.

JohnD,

Could you explain exactly what was stolen to award me the title of thief? As for showing you the postings that go into detail, I can't not because they are not there. Because I can't get the search facility to work?

I'm a little puzzled are you saying the ability factor doesn't work? There can be little doubt that JIB doesn't think so. I think you will find I queried this a long time ago, in fact I doubt if it was even the ability rating VDW used.

Re Rooster Booster, I think Guest did have him as the c/form horse for the 03 champion. I didn't, why because he failed on ability for me. This is because I use a different a/rating, why because I argued a long time ago that it was a mistake to take only winning performances as a guide to ability. I still had him lacking in ability, even taking some of his placed performances into account.

I'm not sure why so much is made of his win, in fact I think it must be down to the Racing Post. The Top Speed and Postmark figures are inflated because it was the Champion hurdle. The figures I use didn't have the s/f as that high, and the placed horses in the race were only novices. So this year I made a few bob by laying this overrated horse. Overrated by the VDW ability rating, as well as other ratings.

As I have said before if you take the trouble to read the posts on this thread I think you (and anyone else) will find many things of interest. I think I have even explained why I use a different a/rating. It was discovered by reading the VDW literature, and going through the first example, until it made sense. This was done because I wasn't happy with the reasons (although plausible) others gave for the finding the VDW. selection.

I have also said I'm not convinced by the way some arrive at the form horses in a race. I'm still working on that. However I'm not prepared to just dismiss the thoughts of others out of hand. They have worked long and hard to come to these conclusions, and they MAY be right.

Finally, I'm not a thief, (what do you think I stole)? or a deserter. I stopped posting because the thread was becoming chaos and going no where. I have tried privately to help anyone that was interested, there is no way I am prepared to give away my hard work on a public forum. I have posted selections before the off, and put a lot of my thoughts into posts, admitted I haven't put everything into one post. Would you?

Be Lucky

All,

Please stop the personal grudges, however deep they maybe.

I'm relatively new to betting. I have an open mind and want to learn, and being new probably have less prejuices than others. I have previously looked in on this thread (bugger that may counter the "less prejuices"), (and others herein - so far Pipedreamer has the most credability), stopped looking due to the slagging contests - whilst amusing didn't teach me anything and got fed up trying to find the nuggets.

So basically - teacher wanted, pupil willing and not totally feeble minded - though be gentle.

With tongue firmly in cheek - was going to post earlier:-

Would Spectrometer be a VDW horse. Consistent on going, distance and at a higher class (as in money and in E). The snakes in the grass (see I have read some of this thread!) being Avebury consistent at going, distance, class (as in class E, not to do with money won) and Shayadi consistent at distance, prefers softer going but has won and placed on todays going, very consistent at class (as in E) but has also contested higher class (as in money) than Spectrometer. Probably not even a VDW race from what I've read so far - but are the principles I've put up correct? No jibes about after the event please. For the record I didn't bet, just wanted to use this as an example.

For the record Shayadi won 11/2, Spectrometer 2nd (8l) 1/3.

The theft of 'intellectual property' is considered theft in law, I believe, and I think your group would be hard pushed to defend themselves against this charge if they were honest. Fulham's "The swamp has been drained" posting says it all.
I have long held the view that ability ratings can mislead, for reasons that I have made clear many times. I note from another website that a former member who has gone to great lengths on here to stress they are the foundation on which the method is built is now having second thoughts.
I believe that Guest had Intersky Falcon as the c/f horse for the 03 Champion Hurdle, though I haven't bothered to check.
Rooster Booster has 3 times proved himself to be the 2nd best 2m hurdler in training this season, which hardly supports the view that there was some sort of fluke about his win.

Nofinepix
I have had a quick look at the race, so will give a brief synopsis.
A low grade novice chase at a low grade track, so a race to avoid from a VDW perspective. Spectrometer, although a decent hurdler, has won 1 completed chase, comfortably beating some very modest horses, hardly the standout on class and form that would inspire a bet. Keep looking though, but set your sights a little higher.