Mtoto
In essence, what you are saying is that horses are given prep races in lower class races, but in better class races, all are trying for their lives. Must be a lot of fun sorting out which is which?
Just a few of the many that were given prep races in high class races this season:
DOYEN
SULAMANI
SOVIET SONG
MILLENARY
And last, but not least, the aptly named,in your case, REFUSE TO BEND.

Regards Ahoy - Several questions to ask such as why did the trainer step a maiden up not only a long way in class, but also 3f in trip in the Chester Vase?

How did the opposition in Ahoys first 2 races of 1988 compare to him?

And the same question for his class 18 Maiden victory at Salisbury on his 3rd start?

Exeter 3.50
Code Sign,would seem the most likely winner,but the price may be prohibitive.It is difficult to see it beaten.

TC was asking about Trilemma, 410 Nottingham, Wed, 28 Sept.

I've had a look at the race, which, though the most valuable flat race of the day (£10.5K), is only a class D2, so, a la Charlie Anderson, I reject this race as a VDW qualifier.

I don't know the answer re speed figures, Tuppeny, but I expect Trilemma to be well backed.

Myself, I'd go for Richtee, ew.
This critter has won a £6.8K race this season, but not at the distance.
Maybe Hamilton is tougher than Nott. and Fahey knows that she'll stay the extra?

Prescott's will be fit and will probably run well.

If you're still looking for another contender, my outsider for 2nd place (only 7 go) is Tudor Bell.

Nessie

I bet you are feeling really frustrated at the moment. You asked a simple question “What is the common denominator?” but the person or persons who made the statement originally will not answer the question. They will not give you an answer because they are afraid somebody will come up with an example that does not fit.

The only common factor I can see is that all were carrying less weight than last time out, Jock Bingham picked this up. Carrying less weight usually means, especially in handicaps, that the horse is now going UP IN CLASS, Which is why this method is not to be associated with Roushayd.

Anybody who knows of any example that was not carrying less weight PLEASE SAY, as I have not looked at ALL examples.

"
Horses are not machines.

Sport requires deception.

Owners want prizes.

Everyone loves a tickle.": JIB.


I agree largely with your post, JIB.

However, I think it is important to remember that, at the lower levels of horseracing (where VDWers do not go), trainers want to fill their horse boxes. They need about 70 animals to make the thing pay (Owners pay for everything).

This is why whenever an upandcoming trainer is interviewed on TV he/she always get the plug in, " I want more horses".
The big yards don't do this; instead, if you ring them up to see will they train your beast, they'll quote some astronomic fee which is just a businesslike way of saying fk off!

With transport costs, we should not forget that these are claimed back as a business expense for tax purposes.
In fact, I've got an old RP in which one female trainer states that she never pays much tax and that's why she doesn't want her animals to win too often!
She's got one out today that's owned by a well known ex-bookie. They have one nice touch most years, and run terribly for the rest of the time.

We see it all on the AW! Mind you, I've lugged in to some top trainers in the paddock at Royal Ascot and heard some interesting snippets there too!

The key word, as you said, is deception, and the owners get deceived as much as any if they're the "sillybollocks" type.

Best advice I can repeat is this: " always remember, that in business, the other side will do you if they can".

This is particularly true in racing where I'd say at least 75% of the participants are thorobred bastards and first-class ****s.
Dunno where that fits in on the VDW scale, but the motto is "be aware!".

Trilemma's well ahead on these ratings:

"28/09/2004 - Nottingham - 4.10 - Roseland Group Autumn Handicap (Class D) - (3yo,0-85) (2m 9yds) (7 Runners)
Trilemma 78
Race The Ace 45
Richtee 33
Tudor Bell 30"

Garstonf,

Ignorance is bliss.

“They will not give you an answer because they are afraid somebody will come up with an example that does not fit.”

Well there’s no chance of that person being you as there were several that were going up in weight, ones that spring to mind are Stray Shot, and Zamandra, Wayward Lad, Buckskin, Sunset Christo, Urther Pendragon.

I’ll leave the rest for you to sort out.

sean

Contradicted by Massey

4:10 Nottingham 28 Sep Handicap 3yo 2m 7 Run details
No Horse Form Odds Weight Draw Days Runs Lst Yr Min Max Rating
3 RACE THE ACE 452331 9-1 6 31 6 0 454 614 612 ***
6 RICHTEE 1251314 8-10 2. 29 7 492 509 658 601 (11)
5 TRILEMMA 6-90611 8-10 1. 22 5 437 318 608 596
7 GARNETT 43393 8-8 7 21 5 0 547 609 579
4 MARINE CITY 0-16634 8-10 5 12 5 399 399 638 575
1 QUARTINO 521-098 9-7 4 6 3 549 519 568 552
2 TUDOR BELL 1162130 9-5 3 12 10 513 479 644 503

my ratings have race the ace above the prescott horse , but im always wary of his runners and at the prices i won't be getting involved.

Lee,

Thanks for the information. While it is still fresh in your memory can I ask, did these of horses qualify for the original list? If they didn't would they have if the same criteria was applied to their 3 year old races. ie no more than 3 runs, runs at 7f + on any of the courses mentioned?

JohnD,

What I'm saying is treat all horses running in these top races as being there to win. Check their profile to see if you agree they stand a good chance. ONLY back them if the profile agrees with the conditions of the race, class, track, etc. If the horses runs and there is a doubt about the going and distance trust the trainer. If a trainer runs a horse who's profile doesn't look right ask why did he bother? If you assume the reason for every poor run is that it was just a prep race. That may be another reason why you are lost. Yes, it is a lot of fun.

Boozer,

Agreed in these top races more than one trainer is trying to win. That's where a good set of ratings is a help. If you keep to the top few in the rating AND the profile fits you have increased your chances of finding the winner. If the horse is consistent the chances are the profile is accurate, and doesn't it say something about the horse if he runs well every time? (even when conditions don't suit) Trouble with a lot of ratings you don't know how they are compiled.

Be Lucky

Lee
The following may sound cynical, that is not my intention, but a genuine wish to understand what you are trying to convey. If you choose to answer my query, please bear that in mind.
One thing that puzzles me greatly, is that,if,as you imply, the method as you see it is so cut and dried as to leave one with a clear selection, why do others, who use a similar approach, not only do not come up with that same selection, but often, can't even agree on the contenders?

JohnD,

I'm confident that of those who I've conversed with on the subject of VDW, none are not using a similar approach.

Lee
Can I run that one by you again, or was the double negative intentional?

blah blah bloody blah. round and round in circles. I know the answer but I aint telling. but heres a clue. no you werent close enough. heres a example. no that didnt fit either. ooh but wait this one nearly fits. no it dont. I still no more than you though. bollocks.

John,

??

nessie - 'twas ever thus

The Leopard dosn't change its spots !

I don't think that any of them actualy ever place a real bet !

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

TC,

As I've stated before, put your money where your mouth is and further proof will be furnished to you. Failing to take up my last 'winner takes all challenge' I feel speaks for itself, don't you?

Nessie,

The same applies to you - my email address is in my profile.

Lee
Does "none are not using a similar approach" mean all are using the same approach?
If so, that would beg the question,why aren't they meeting the same success?

John,

Apologies, no, it means that bar the basic numerical calculations that were spelt out in black and white by VDW I have yet to meet anyone who applies the method as I do, or achieves the same results.

Please bear in mind here that there are many people that I talk to, such as yourself, who I haven't the foggiest about how or what they achieve, this statement is purely bases on those whom I've discussed these issues with.