BB2000/Mtoto - One of the reasons I don't put much faith in ORs is due to the scenarios like the VC Hcap Chase. BB, you refer to Get Real not running up to it's mark in comparison with speed figures, but for me it is the actual weights carried and the opposition that affects how fast a horse runs along with other factors such as distance , course , going , etc. Get Real did perform very badly as did Wahiba Sands on Saturday, but it really was there to be seen beforehand that they were not probable winners. The official handicap ratings are just someones opinion on how good a horse is. Using the guidelines VDW provided it was apparent that Wahiba Sands was likely to struggle but was possible, Get Real would have to do something he hadn't before and Turgeonev was most likely to run up to his best. Exactly the same procedure showed Wahiba Sands as a good thing when beating Get Real at Ascot before Christmas in a lower class race.

If the above horses met again, I agree the roles may be reversed, but this could be determined only after evaluating the race in question in full.

I mentioned Ekbalco because it was one of two good things VDW gave the week following Little Owl and Sunset Cristo. Whilst the latter two have recieved much attention from those interested, Ekbalco and Justafancy seemed to have been overlooked by many. Ekbalco had finished 1st then 3rd then 7th (down the field) before winning the Imperial Cup in March 1981. Many a so called "good thing" or popular favourite fails to deliver only to be found in the winners enclosure next time when nobody wants to back it. It's another area worth looking into.

ichi beau has everything going for it based on chase form

Guest,

I found this forum by accident after reading & posting to the VDW Egroups site ( now essentially 'dead'). I have read your posts with interest ( and others ) but it was one of your last 3 posts that really caught my eye as you mentioned something that i have yet to see anyone else mention with regard to 'VDW'. I would not like to post what this 'factor' is for all to see as i myself consider it to be 'key' to VDW's method and therefore think that only those who have put in the hard work of studying VDW's examples ( or prepared to ) should be the ones to benefit. With this in mind i would very much like to correspond with you by email in order to discuss this 'factor' and a way of presenting this to the forum in order that those who have or are willing to put in the work should benefit.

Many thanks to 'all' for a very enjoyable group/forum.

BLUE.

Hello All,

Guest - Your recent posts have been very helpful. I have not spotted the factor pointed out by BLUE but if you keep on contributing this useful material I live in hopes.

All - Has anyone looked at the 2.15 Wincanton? Looks Like Trouble stands out on consistency, ability and highest winning class. It's form is great. The weight is no problem.

But its a very good 3miler.

Why would a trainer bother to go for £13.5K at 2M5F with a horse that can and has won much better at 3M+. I'll probably get this wrong but I think this is one to oppose.

All the best
hedgehog

Blue - Glad you have spotted something new within VDWs methods, and as I have mentioned before there are many factors to give due consideration some of which were detailed by VDW and others which were not deliberately pointed out. I take it you are referring to one of the factors in the latter group. Whilst I would be interested in hearing about what you have gleaned, I am afraid that I'm not about to publicise my email address within the forum. I would say though that there are certain undisclosed factors that should remain so in order to protect the methods profitability. I have given some hints as to other factors to consider and some have taken them in the manner they were offered and others have tried to take me to task. This is as I would expect, because not everyone thinks along the same lines.

To add to my comments about the VC Hcap Chase last week, it was interesting to watch the Peter Marsh Chase today where Banker Count showed how weight will stop horses at a certain level of class. If he couldn't win a similar race with a low weight two runs back and on the same course , how could he win today with top weight ?

There were plenty of false favourites today. There was also a stand out fav to be backed at Kempton.

Guest,

Actually as it happens, this 'factor' is something i have been using for quite a while. What i ment was that i hadnt seen it mentioned by anyone else until your post of a day or two ago.

I agree that posting your email adress to all 'n sundry would be risky, and therefore in the spirit of goodwill, now post mine.

mypost67@hotmail.com

Regards,

BLUE.

last time out good thing,short price,2 mile,lost
trainer reported as saying that the horse has lost his speed.

this time out not a good thing at wrong distance?? won good price.

did vdw name any examples of horses detailing their natural progression or any trainers techniques to indicate that the horse was being prepared for a new distance??? or how do we know ??

Barney - RE Jair Du Cochet. Can I refer you to the final comments I made on 18th Jan in the post "ORs".

Dear Barney,
I also had this horse as easily the class act in this race, but as you will see on "the reply to Gary dutching" thread I altered it to second choice, like you, because of the distance. The more my notes build up the more we will be able to see how they perform at the wrong distance.
With hindsight STRUGGLES GLORY (w5-1) was a VDW certainty. (I know it's easy for me to say that now now we know it won) but it was!
Yours
Swish

Hello again Barney,
I have just been re-reading the thread and I totally agree that Ichi Beau looked a certainty on chase form and I thought it would win. It is hard to know whether or when they can change disciplines and still succeed. Again with the help of notes I shall try and build up a picture over a period of time,
Yours
Swish

guest when i first read that post it immediately brought to mind jdc and i looked long and hard at it.

it must be easy for you to say that they win again next time out as you have been watching them for years but for me that distance change seemed to big a step up,is that factor the only way of knowing when they are changing distance or can a consistent class horse be trained to run any distance.

anyway i hope you got your money back from last time,becuase from my limited knowledge it wasn't a certainty.

swish i still cant get stuggles glory to be a bet even after looking at it again.up 8lb in same grade after a 20l defeat i thought this was another prep race.with a process of elimination i only end up with a muddle.

re ichi beau thats the second time that hurdles/chase mixing form has cost me dear i will give those a miss in future.

overall though i was expecting a little bit more from yesterday with only 1 or 2 good things and 1 cert the one i thought was the best bet was golden rambler.

Barney,

A study of 10 years results with RSB shows that horses running in handicap hurdles whose last run was in a chase win only 1 in 20, a very poor return. There were 182 winners from 3283 runners, a 5.54% strike rate. Comparing this with horses whose last run came in a handicap hurdle shows just how bad this statistic is as they show 3649 winners from 30,378 runners for a 12.01% strike rate.

Even if we eliminate those who failed to complete last time as obviously going on a confidence building mission, the strike rate rises only marginally to 6.52% with 110 winners from 1687 runners.

Cheers

Barney - RE JDC

It depends on the horse and what stage it is at in it's career when considering new distances along with the opposition of course. The others in the race all had clear signs they were likely to come unstuck. JDC was a flop first time out this season and subsequently had not be seen since. He was a very good novice last season as we all should know.

It Takes Time wasn't the only false favourite on the card. I'm sure those who have understood VDWs methods would have seen the likely fate of The French Furze before the race.

Swish.

Been watching your results with interest. Glad to see your are getting to grips with the handicaps, they are usually more rewarding when you find the winners. When you stick to the IMPORTANT elements they are easier than they look. I notice you where worried about the distance for Jair Du Cochet. I was far more worried about the record of Teaatral going left handed!!

Regards

re jdc

guest regarding the flop,which was at the right distance,and the trainer's statement that he was ok and a close friend o'sullivan stating that it was ok, it lost.

is the fact that it lost,enough evidence to conclude its been readied for a new trip.

i also saw the faults in ff but wasnt prepared to gamble on rodock getting round.


crock thanks for that information I am now not even going to consider these horses in the race
thanks very much!!

Barney, I see you have a penchant for betting in novice hurdles and while you seem to be successful, selecting this type of race was not deemed to be wise by vdw. Don't let me put you off this practise though, as they say, a winner is a winner and a method whatever it is has to suit the individual at the end of the day.

Jair Du Cochet, although a very classy and talented animal, was not even a consideration for me as no inexcusable reason was found for his apparent 'flop' lto. I agree that The French Furze was a poor fav., you only have to look at its overall form for the answer.

After reading my last post, I may have inadvertantly confused the issue with regard to Jair du Cochet. I'd just like to say that the excuse given by the trainer was not good enough for me when I first analysed the race. However, in the light of the result, it looks like he was saying it how it was. Regards the distance, I felt I would have been guessing at that also.

Dear Barney,
First of all I am only learning and shall be for a long time yet.
The first thing about this horse was the form figs of 4-56. I know not every one agrees but in my opinion this counts for nothing at face value. I think adding up form figures is complete rubbish as I have said many times before so it mattered not a jot to me that Menesonic had 5-14, Ross Minster had 123 and Judaic ways had P12.
Secondly also as I mentioned before the last run is NOT the most important (although it can be).
I also thought the last run was the most important till recently but in handicaps, anyway, it isn't.
If you go back to 24/2/01 you will find this horse ran in the RACING POST CHASE HCP Class A for £46000. It was favourite that day so we can assume a lot of people thought it was capable of winning such a high-class race. However it only managed 4th .BUT the winner, Young Spartacus beat the standard time buy a massive 6.6 seconds. Struggles Glory only lost by 3 lengths. So it proved even in defeat that it is capable of running very fast indeed.
Ok since then it had had 2 bad runs one over 20furlongs. But today it is in a class C for only £8500. When I compared it to its rivals today well to me it stood out a mile, even though it was top weight.
Of course I find others that lose, that's the way it is, but I hoped this has helped to explain why I liked it.

Crock,
Thank you for that info regarding chasers changing to hurdles. I am sure it will be very useful, but what ratio would we get if we looked at only horses that had proved they were absolute class in the other discipline, (like Ichi Beau) a lot better strike rate of 1 in 20 I'll warrant!

Mtoto
Nice to hear from you. Yes I am finding handicaps a lot easier now. I can see a much clearer picture than I could before, cheers. I still have a lot to learn though. I am making notes of all races I examine and recording the details on a spreadsheet, so I reckon I can only get better. Hope so anyway. I put TEEATRAL top because of Jair du C, my worry about the distance as we have said. I never even considered that Teeatral needs a left or right hand track. I told you I have a lot to learn. May I ask, do many horses only perform on LH or RH?
Also did you pick Struggles Glory? And if so do you think I went about picking it in the correct way? In fact even if you didn't examine that race I would like to hear your respected opinion,
All the best all
Swish

Swish,

Whilst class does have some impact, it is not as great as you think. If we only consider horses going from a class C or above chase last time the strike rate is 8.63%, class B or above chase last time gives a strike rate 8.29%. Both these fall well short of the base strike rate of 12% from horses remaining in handicap hurdles. To better the base strike rate of 12% you would have to consider horses coming from a class A chase which would give you a 16.13% strike rate but that is from 10 winners out of 62 runners. In other words 1 winner per year from the last 10 years. We are getting dangerously low on our sample for it to be meaningful now.

Cheers

Dear Crock,
That is most interesting and surprising, how does it look when they are going from hurdles to chases?
Yours
Swish