Thanks Hedgehog.

JIF

Just a quick response to Mtoto who raises a good point re overseas prizemoney. Irish racing does now offer better money for certain races especially in the novice or maiden races. To be fair to VDW, he did warn us that some changes in racing would force successful punters to adapt likewise. The Euro raising it's head has already affected the calculations and whilst the Racing Post still list money won as sterling, they seem to have abandoned their practice of showing Euros on the card, but sterling within the race info box above the form. Surely they will have to convert as per French racing.

The point about the better prizemoney levels though is that if it was easy pickings, why don't our horses go and pick them more often ?

Re the opposition in the VC Hcp Chase, I reckon you already know the answer there Mtoto.

Hello Hedgehog

Ref your post "odds as a guide"

Would you be kind enough to post up the www details of Odd site5, I`d like to have a look at it.

Thanks

111
.

Hello All,

here's the address of that site

http://www.0dd5.com

All the best
hedgehog

hedgehog

if you e-mail gummy the table he will put it on the tables page.

wnbarnes@hotmail.com


gary

i am dutching more than ever with vdw i hardly ever get it wrong.in races with only one winner i now only back the winner see 150d,240p


there have been a lot of posts since last night not all good though.

Hello All,

Barney - thanks for the email address.

I've sent a copy of the article to Gummy to post.

John in France - If you going to use the method I've outlined beware of the high class donkeys! You'll recognise them because they will have great ability and highest winning class ratings and really poor consistency. A perfect example is Beau on Saturday. Very classy but running like a donkey.

My advise is to look for CONSISTENT horses.

Hope you find it useful.

All the best
hedgehog

Guest
You say that winning punter will be Knocked back
but if this is true how do the professionals get
money on.How do people like Alan Potts get money
on.I know for a fact that he gets big bets on.
many of the big bets at the festivals aren`t
from pro punters.many pro punters only have a
20% strike and make as little as 3% profit
on a large turnover of money.Some oncourse
bookies will stand big bets and some will not.
Bookies oncourse are more intersted in balancing
their books.

Regards


Maggsy

This is a test as I tried to post a table from Hedgehog and lost the entire VDW thread in the process three heart attacks and a nervous breakdown later I have managed to get it back.
the Hedgehog article will appear on the articles page on Tuesday.
I'm off for a lie down.

Gummy

John in France
i can`t see how Out of the Shadows could be the
selection because its not in the 3 most consistant.It has a form figure of 15.


maggsy

Maggsy - I did say continually placing large bets AND continually collecting. No bookmaker will continually let a punter take large amounts out of his book.

Anyone who does make the game pay certainly has my respect, but not everyone works in the same manner. Some can survive on large turnover/small takes but I assure you there are ways of getting considerably better strike rates. With a higher strike rate there is no need to bet in lumpy amounts. Steady profitability is the name of the game not greed.

The point of my mentioning the big festival bets was that they are accepted because the majority lose.

Dear Maggsy.

i am sure you are right, but I am very much a beginner a propos VDW etc. so it is easy for me to get things wrong. It did win though!! JIF

Hello All,

Just finished reading Guest's postings to the VDW_continued thread. There are quite a few hints in them. Enough to give me food for thought.

A while back Fulham gave the hint that SP position may be used as a measure of final position by some.
I contacted the 0dd5 site, as they have done the work on winners against SP position, hoping to get the data to check this out. They thought it such a good idea that they are going to post the graphs for other finishing positions against SP position in a few days time.

All the best
hedgehog

Hedgehog

In your recent post you refer to me as having given a hint re SPs as a measure of final position. I can only assume that you are referring to comments on one or other of VDW's early examples where, in my examinations of the races, I have on occasion (particularly as regards Prominent King) concluded that the SPs of races might well be indicative of when connections "expected" a result.

Being in the early stages of examining the VDW examples in detail, my comment re SPs was simply an observation of fact and my tentative conclusion on the facts, and absolutely nothing more. I will be watching for similar as I work through later examples, but reference to it was certainly not intended as a hint that I had found something of real value which others would do well to follow. My position as regards mastering VDW's approaches, and therefore my capacity to offer anyone useful hints, is very different to that of experts, such as Guest.

If its something else I've posted to which you are referring, if you could remind me of it I'll try to clarify.

Cheers.

Hello All,

Fulham - yes it was the Prominent King reference that I took as a hint. Looking at the Marchwood article on PK it seemed to me that PK came exactly were it was expected to in the 2 races leading up to the Erins. This was reflected by its SP position. Hence my taking this as a hint. In a few days we'll know if that misunderstanding has some basis in fact.

JIF - you are right about Out of the Shadows. It had a consistency rating of 8. As far as I understand VDW, you ignore F,P,U and B and look at the previous race instead.

All the best
hedgehog

Hello Guest
Its not so much about strike rate as roi.
Some may have a 70% strike rate but at
very short prices.i don`t know what the
average price of your winners are but if
you have a 85% srike rate then maybe you
would have problems getting large bets on.
But i would have thought that with betting
exchanges you wouldn`t have much problem.
They have no reason to shut an account
however succesfull you may be.In fact the
more winners you have the better it is for
them because you only pay commision when
you win.Also it has been said before that
£50 wagers or less can be spread around .
Its eisier to get a bet on than ever now
that we have the internet and no tax in
betting shops.


Regards


Maggsy

Mtoto
You say that Lisaan ran in a handicap in its
last 2 races but the winner did also.Its clear
that this was a better handicap than lisaans
but it only came 5th and lisaan won its handicap
and it could have won doing hand stands with
a better SF than Got one Too but with out this
information how do you Know.VDW said to deal
with facts and not to let any element of a gamble
come into out decisions.

Regards


maggsy

Dear Guest,
Jimmy once told me I was too touchy at times. He is right I am. Sometimes I do it because I feel letters/articles/people are not acting in the right spirit of the board. Sometimes because I feel it is not right that a lot of people help each other with good/sound advice etc whilst others do not. Sometimes it is because I am just interested to see how people will reply to what I say. It isn't really anything personal. I don't know you obviously, you are maybe a great chap for all I know. Let's forget it. I shall not bother you again.


Dear Gary,
I shall have a go at putting up dutching tips on another thread, both handicaps and non handicaps when I feel my tips are worthwhile. As you know I aren't always sure myself and I am bound to get some wrong, of course.
Today using my limited VDW knowledge, what Mtoto has taught me, what I know or have learnt myself and what I have learned from people on the board:
MAXIMUM NON-HCPS 2
MAXIMUM HANDICAPS 3
CARLISLE
12.45 BETS 2 L L
1.15 BETS 2 W12-1 L
1.45 BETS 2 W6-4 L
2.15 BETS 3 L L L
2.45 BETS 0
3.15 BETS 3 L L L
3.45 BETS 2 W9 L
FOLKESTONE
1.25 BETS 2 W10-11 L
NO MORE BETS AT FOLKESTONE
SOUTHWELL
3.05 BETS 2 W8 L
NO MORE BETS AT SOUTHWELL
I didn't back all these its just what I put in my notes,
Yours
Swish

Hello All,

Fulham - have you received your Little Owl form books yet? If so can I email you for contacts?

All the best
hedgehog

Hi Hedgehog

Yes, email me whenever you like.

Cheers for the info on the books Guest/Crock.
I shall take a look.
I have been looking at several articles and comments on VDW from various sources on the internet but it does seem very confusing,so many different points of view and often conflicting views.
I just thought its probably a good idea to start with what he initially had written,the basics and then go from there.

Gary