Investor

A very pertinent question, and one that I ask myself whenever I do it.

On one level there are specific answers, ie we have info. readily to hand that was all but unavailable in VDW's day (eg exact ORs), so why not use it. So for a while I used the OR of the highest rated horse in a race as a measure of race class, and later the average OR of the runners, instead of VDW's win prize money measure. Naturally, from time to time one or other OR based approach worked out better than the win prize money one, but overall not, and I've long reverted to VDW's method.

However, the fundamental reason is, of course, a persisting conviction that I must be cleverer than VDW and therefore able to improve on his approach, which leads to all sorts of "experimentation". However, I'm coming to accept the overwhelming evidence that this conviction is wholly unwarranted, and that the sane course is to wait for the right opportunities, apply the approach as I understand it without any modification, and be grateful to VDW for the income stream that flows. (I've printed out a sign "Remember Hug's Dancer" in case the conviction shows any sign of re-emerging!)

Fulham
Guest said something a while back,"once known all it takes is time and patience" Iv'e had 3 bets this week 2 of them today,And guess what.I may have missed a few more,But i'm more than happy with my weeks work.

Just to set the record straight, I was not hinting at any bet today at Beverley, merely highlighting a point in relation to yesterdays discussion on the draw at Lingfield seeing as the Beverley meeting always attracts the draw debate.

I made one bet this afternoon in the 3.45 at Lingfield. It was on the class/form horse cross checked with the merit ratings who won at 100/30. This was a horse the experts said was badly drawn and the trainer said shouldn't beat Move It.

The form, read the way VDW suggested, showed that Bonus had improved significantly since beaten with 5lb more at Windsor by Move It. Raised in class and improving on it's last few runs and the closing stages last time shows his race was more of a test than the other 2 market leaders in a fast time.

Has anybody had any success with the Hurdle system that vdw mentioned in his books?

I am not sure but I thought Allude in the first race at Worcester today may have been a qualifier,but I can't say for certain even though it was a Novice hurdle,does anybody have a view on it?

I thought todays racing was pretty poor in general.

Guest
Well that was a bonus then
Swish

Pipedreamer
I don't know what VDW's way of hurdles was, but it looked a certainty to me. Trouble was it looked even more of a certainty when it got beat when 2-9.
I was forced on it at that price because I had already backed it at 6-4, but there was a non runner so it lost at 2-9 instead of 6-4.
Bearing all that in mind I had a small bet at 11-8 today.
In general I think Nov Hurdles are risky bets, (although I did have success with them at odds against last year).
What is this hurdle method?
Cheers
Swish

Thanks for the reply Swish,I don't think he ever explained it but he listed some examples,no doubt you were on Cenkos in the 8.00 at Warwick this evening.

Guest any views on Class/Form horses at Leopardstown tomorrow?

Only one today Guest? Now didn’t you do well a 100/30 winner. This is what amazes me about VDW. After years of study learning how and then I suppose a few hours poring over today’s racing and you manage one bet and one winner at odds like that. Then here is little old me. I bet two today and they both win, one at 5/1 and the other at 20/1, and all it took was 10 minutes. Both races 7f handicaps at Lingfield, both distance winners. In my humble opinion 7 fur is a bit specialised which is why I chose it. And the main pointer? Both top rated by “The Times” Timekeeper. There are a couple of other things I check but it only takes as I say around 10 minutes. Add this to the very successful week I’ve had so far and it is a good life, far too short to waste poring over form. I’d rather do it my way and use the time saved to spend some of the winnings.

Pipedreamer
Yes I was on CENKOS it was a cert. How did you know that??????
In fact it was the only main bet I had
Cheers
Swish

Pipedreamer
As you know CENKOS was not a hurdle. it was a chase.

So noone knows this VDW hurdle method then, including yourself. Well I don't understand then.

Jimmy
The difference is is that you make your living betting, whilst most of these do not,
Cheers
Swish

Determined - It was a method for handicap hurdles only. VDW never expanded on his list of selections, but a study of the examples shows up many common traits.

Jimmy - Bully for you, but what has your selection process got to do with VDW. And why don't you prove your long term success by posting these selections?

Pipedreamer
May I ask you a question?
I know you are a modest man, so I shall ask you in amodest way. What do you mean when you say that racing was poor in general?
HHere is how I thought it.
Racing was DIFFICULT in general.
There was one NAILED ON BET CENKOS which was 4-6 on betfair.
There was another bet that became a certainty as soon as the only danger was withdrawn. This was BELLA BOY ZEE 6.10 THIRSK (drawn 12 of 12)
Won 6-4jf.
There was another one as well, but I confess I ummed and ahd about it. This was MILK IT MICK which was drawn 15 of 15 at Beverley. In the end I had a small bet on it but these draws are vital and I should have gone whole hog. on it.
If you really want to win at this game you HAVE to study figs and draw an d forget all about the idiots like................. well I'll let you work that out yourself
Cheers
Swish

I notice this thread is upto 500 pages now and much water has passed under the bridge. In addition there are sub threads that seem on the increase, mainly by the hecklers keen to divert attention away from the main thread. They have always despised it's popularity for what reason I don't know, but they have made no secret of their views on VDW followers, of which there are many.

Anyway, I am personally going to take a break again from the thread. I will return just once more on Derby day where I expect there will be a winner in the big race that can be found via VDWs approach. After that, I am going to call it a day. There really is little more to say, but given a usual sort of Epsom Derby, I'm confident I'll be able to use VDWs methods to find it and name it on this thread before the race just as I did so last year.

Luck to all.

Promises, promises, promises. How many times have you said that Guest? You know you’ll miss your adoring fans. It seems you can’t live without the adulation. The last time you said this I had to reassure poor barney, he thought he had lost you but I told him you would be back soon and as usual you proved me right.

Guest
Well thats a relief then,
Cos you know absolutely JACK same as FULHAM
Mind you you would already know that since you are him.
You are not telling me that there could be so many different idiots on one thread?

I don't think so!
Cheers
Swish

Swish, check your e-mail.

And by the way Guest, as to proving long term success I have already done so. More than can be said for many on this thread. Another thing, what has your last post got to do with VDW?

Oh by the way if you aren't happy about any of this blame it on Investor and Barney because they persist in having a go at me,
Swish

Jimmy
Your e-mail is answered