LLL
This is you all over a grown man with the brain of a child,And you call me dim witted,Plus all the other bits and bobs LOL.

Mimas,

Not heard much from you in the past 3 - 4 months. I guess you have been busy researching the old examples.

I agree that many people on this thread are very helpful and hopefully one day I will be able to return the compliment by helping them.

With regards your question, I`ll do my usual and leave it to those far more advanced then me to respond.


Andrew,

I will respond re` K.Road once I`ve had time to look at the race in more detail.

On the weight issue, I`m of the opinion that unless the horse in question has previously performed well with the weight it is set to carry in comparable class then it is not considered a form horse for the race.

Recent examples would be Faithful Warrior yesterday and Korolo at Sandown in February.

That said, Dubian Gift had not carried such a big weight until today but it didn`t stop her.

I have mixed feelings on the subject. Trying to give 28 lbs over 3 miles on heavy is one thing and trying to give the same weight on good ground over 5 furlongs is another ????

Mtoto,

Would you be kind enough to give me/us some of your thoughts on tomorrows racing?

In the 2.30 at Beverley whom do you have as the ‘best’ horse in the race? I’m presuming it is Peruvian Chief with Danger Over as your class/form?

In 2.45 at Lingfield I can’t see past Huja. Do you agree?

And in the Tote Sprint, whom do you have as ‘best’? and who do you have as class/form?

Thanks.

Determined,

I think you are a bit harsh on yourself a lot of the time. What you post up is always worth reading as far as I’m concerned; it appears to me that you have a good knowledge of horse racing in general.

God has spoken.

God's got his balls too.

14th May 1.30 York

See that the Ramsdens have entered Bishops Court in this off 110 will carry top weight.

Kangarilla also entered off 76, nice racing weight with or without a penalty for Saturdays race at Beverley.

JohnD - Better at shorter than what?

Swish/Max - Once again the draw confounds the stats. Also, just because a jockey has a low strike rate at a course whatever the circumstances, it surely only boils down to if the horses they ride there are able and there to win their races. A jockey will always get beaten on a horse when up against the rightful winner.

This is what I mean by stats being worthless without recourse to further relevant info. It's the same with weight stats. If the horse is up against better in form horses then the weight carried is useless info as far as stats go.

investor,
"LLL
This is you all over a grown man with the brain of a child,And you call me dim witted,Plus all the other bits and bobs LOL"

Who the 'ell is LLL??? I guess dim witted is too kind.

Guest,

Couldn't agree more re. Stats in general. Just a shame you can't find many winners your way either. I suppose on balance both Max and Swish find more winners their way than the whole of the VDW body find their way, so, they must be doing something right.

Play by the stats, die by the stats- I never look at the draw.

good morning

You're joking, it's 5:40 p.m. and I'm scarfing an excellent curry for brekkie.

I went to a lot of effort to type up those tables. If you look you will see VDW v. clearly. Some will say no you don't but then they would. Look at the stats its all there. Does any one want today's tables?

If so how do I diplay them correctly like Cybadetective does.

If not then ignore me.

Try a search for Etrigan, I think it was he who explained the way to use 'tags' or 'tabs' or whatever.

Nessie,

put up on please if you dont mind.

They are fine as they are for me.

Jimmy - On what basis do you make the assertion that Max and Swish are more successful in their betting than myself or others for that matter?

I'm pretty sure I have rarely if ever said a horse won't win and it has. I have said certain horses are false favourites and they have lost as expected and sometimes highlighted the one to be on. I can't remember Max or Swish doing the same succesfully on a regular basis. Yesterday being a case in point. The draw or the jockey make no difference if the horse they are on is too good for the others. Even at Beverley, where the sprint course design is the main culprit on the favouring of high numbers, a group 1 sprinter would beat a handicapper from a low draw. An extreme example I know, but the point is class and form are the kingpins, not jockeys, draws and old wives tales.

Guest,

Are you perhaps trying to guide us towards a winner today ?????

If Funfair Wane, well clear on the ability rating is not a form horse today then that makes Danger Over 1st on class/form and a draw of 3 may put many off but with a field of only 11 it wouldn`t stop me playing.

I`ll be honest, I`m not sure how to evaluate FW`s in formness today so I will play safe and leave him as a form horse.

Whilst neither FW of DO have won over 5 furlongs I believe they will fight out the finish today.

With Royal Beacon and Dragon Flyer making the market we find ourselves with a possible book on FW and DO.

Any thoughts would be of interest.


LINGFIELD,

A card to watch for me.



ANDREW,

I as yet haven`t evaluated the 4.30 Beverley ( been stood nearly 3 hours queing for tickets to S****horpe`s playoff match ) so I am way behind.

That said, Kangarilla Road will not be out of the frame. A horse who will improve for his debut where he didn`t act on the course.

Determined

Interesting to see that the name of your football team is suffering similar auto-censorship that happened to the innocent Colindale Station, which I referred to some months ago when another member was expressing interest in the Newspaper Library.

Colindale now escapes auto-censorship, which is surprising as the guy then being protected is, by all accounts, a bit of a S****horpe.

Hope you get the result you are hoping for.

I chosen 3 races which I think a interesting. Note the % v. forcast.

LINGFIELD, 10 May 2003, 3:15, Bet Attheraces On 0800 083 83 83 Derby Trial Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (Colts & Geldings) (3yo),Winner £34,800.00,(1m3f176y)1m4f GD-FM, 6 Runners

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Rainwashed Gold, 3/1 Franklins Gardens, 7/2 Shanty Star, 11/2 Titurel,
10/1 Let Me Try Again, 14/1 Foodbroker Founder.

Titurel, ................................................................................................... Form = (11), Av = 16.7k, Ab = 0
100% 101A 10f 4/2 GF San 34K (15 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths) Same class A IMPROVING ***
23% 101C 10f 4/1 GF Nby 8K (29 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths)
23% 100C 8f 3/1 Gd Don 8K (49 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (100%)
Rainwashed Gold, ................................................................................................... Form = (5), Av = 12.7k, Ab = 6.5k
27% 106C 9f 1/11 GF Kem 9K (21 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN) UP in class from C, BUT chk figures
43% 100A 8f 2/3 GF Asc 15K (210 days)(g) (UP in dist, PLACED)
41% 103A 8f 2/1 Gd Goo 14K (239 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (76%)
Franklins Gardens, ................................................................................................... Form = (4), Av = 8k, Ab = 10.5k
47% 101B 10f 1/shd Gd Eps 16K (17 days) (UP in dist, + WIN) UP in class from B IMPROVING ***
12% 84D 7f 1/½L Gd Ayr 5K (232 days) (UP in dist, + WIN)
6% 79D 7f 2/1 Fm Yar 3K (249 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (44%)
Shanty Star, ................................................................................................... Form = (9), Av = 5k, Ab = 6k
20% 89C 11f 1/2 GF Cat 8K (17 days)(g) (Chk Dist + WIN) UP in class from C IMPROVING ***
10% 86D 10f 1/1 Fm Pon 4K (215 days) (UP in dist, + WIN)
5% 59E 7f 7/9 Sft Ayr 3K (253 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (24%)
Foodbroker Founder, ................................................................................................... Form = (12), Av = 5k, Ab = 5k
13% 91D 9f 1/nk GF Kem 5K (19 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN) UP in class from D, CHK for improv
7% 53D 8f 15/19 Gd Nmk 5K (204 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
12% 83D 8f 1/3 GS Sal 5K (220 days) (UP in dist, + WIN)
.................................. (22%)
Let Me Try Again, ................................................................................................... Form = (4), Av = 3.3k, Ab = 3k
7% 91E 11f 1/3 GF Wdr 3K (26 days)(g) (Chk Dist + WIN) UP in class from E, No improv
6% 71D 12f 1/3 St Lin 3K (98 days)(c) ** DIST + WIN **
9% 81D 10f 2/1 St Lin 4K (115 days)(c) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (15%)



LINGFIELD, 10 May 2003, 3:45, Tote Scoop6 Sprint Showcase Handicap (Class B) (3yo,0-105),Winner £34,800.00,6f GOOD, 12 Runners Handicap

Betting Forecast: 2/1 Move It, 3/1 Hit's Only Money, 7/2 Bonus, 7/1 Vigorous, 10/1 Awarding,
12/1 On The Brink, 20/1 Mr Malarkey, Ronnie From Donny,
25/1 The Bonus King, The Lord, 33/1 Avening, 50/1 Wages.

Avening, ................................................................................................... Form = (26), Av = 41.3k, Ab = 7k
65% 86B 5f 7/4 GF San 12K (15 days) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class B, No improv
55% 58A 6f 9/18 Sft Don 15K (196 days) (** DIST lengths)
439% 71B 6f 13/11 Fm Red 97K (217 days) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (100%)
The Bonus King, ................................................................................................... Form = (18), Av = 28k, Ab = 13k
94% 82A 5f 11/6 GF Hay 18K (21 days) (Chk Dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from A, BUT chk figures
236% 86A 6f 5/7 GF Goo 43K (284 days) (** DIST Unpl)
155% 106A 6f 3/1 GS Nmk 23K (304 days) (** DIST PLACED)
.................................. (86%)
On The Brink, ................................................................................................... Form = (20), Av = 27k, Ab = 7.5k
100% 87A 5f 6/4 GF Hay 18K (21 days) (Chk Dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from A, No improv
161% 87C 5f 4/4 GF Asc 29K (42 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
173% 80A 5f 12/8 GF Asc 34K (325 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (77%)
Ronnie From Donny, ................................................................................................... Form = (17), Av = 16.7k, Ab = 5.5k
64% 84B 5f 5/1 GF San 12K (15 days) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class B, No improv
39% 68C 6f 9/9 GF Nmk 9K (23 days) (** DIST lengths)
159% 86C 5f 3/2 GF Asc 29K (42 days) (Chk Dist PLACED)
.................................. (46%)
The Lord, ................................................................................................... Form = (21), Av = 16.3k, Ab = 7k
9% 8A 6f 9/34 Gd Asc 18K (10 days)(g) (** DIST lengths) ***DOWN in class from A, BUT chk figures
119% 104A 5f 2/hd GF Hay 18K (21 days) (Chk Dist PLACED)
58% 71B 5f 18/13 Gd Don 13K (51 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (32%)
Move It, ................................................................................................... Form = (3), Av = 8k, Ab = 8k
68% 90B 5f 1/1 GF San 12K (15 days) (Chk Dist + WIN) Same class B IMPROVING ***
45% 102D 6f 1/2 GF Wdr 7K (33 days) ** DIST + WIN **
30% 97E 5f 1/3 Fm Bat 5K (40 days) (Chk Dist + WIN)
.................................. (25%)
Bonus, ................................................................................................... Form = (4), Av = 8k, Ab = 8.5k
78% 102B 6f 1/5 GS Sal 12K (6 days) ** DIST + WIN ** Same class B, CHK for improv
30% 94D 6f 1/5 GF Nmk 5K (23 days) ** DIST + WIN **
35% 79D 6f 2/2 GF Wdr 7K (33 days) (** DIST PLACED)
.................................. (24%)
Awarding, ................................................................................................... Form = (13), Av = 6.7k, Ab = 3k
63% 83B 5f 2/1 GF San 12K (15 days) (Chk Dist PLACED) Same class B, CHK for improv
15% 80E 5f 1/1 St Lin 3K (178 days)(c) (Chk Dist + WIN)
17% 54D 6f 12/11 GS Nby 5K (197 days) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (17%)
Hit's Only Money, ................................................................................................... Form = (3), Av = 5.3k, Ab = 5.3k
58% 102C 6f 1/4 GF Rip 9K (14 days) ** DIST + WIN ** UP in class from C IMPROVING ***
28% 89D 6f 1/1 GF Kem 5K (21 days) ** DIST + WIN **
10% 81G 5f 1/5 GF Lei 2K (37 days) (Chk Dist + WIN)
.................................. (17%)
Wages, ................................................................................................... Form = (13), Av = 6.7k, Ab = 4k
58% 76C 7f 10/4 St Lin 12K (119 days)(c) (Chk Dist lengths) UP in class from C IMPROVING ***
21% 83D 6f 1/½L St Lin 4K (133 days)(c) ** DIST + WIN **
18% 72D 7f 2/¾L St Lin 4K (150 days)(c) (Chk Dist PLACED)
.................................. (17%)
Vigorous, ................................................................................................... Form = (6), Av = 5k, Ab = 6k
45% 80C 5f 1/9 GF Ham 9K (12 days) (Chk Dist + WIN) UP in class from C IMPROVING ***
13% 71F 6f 1/1 GF Fol 3K (36 days) ** DIST + WIN **
11% 62D 5f 4/1 GF Wdr 3K (285 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (12%)
Mr Malarkey, ................................................................................................... Form = (9), Av = 4k, Ab = 3.5k
15% 83E 6f 1/2 GF Not 3K (19 days) ** DIST + WIN ** UP in class from E, BUT chk figures
18% 72E 6f 1/1 Fm Thi 4K (29 days) ** DIST + WIN **
16% 53D 6f 7/8 Gd Don 5K (49 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (8%)


BEVERLEY, 10 May 2003, 2:30, Coachman Caravans Conditions Stakes (Class C) (3yo+),Winner £12,110.40,5f GD-FM, 13 Runners

Betting Forecast: 9/4 Royal Beacon, 5/2 Dragon Flyer, 11/2 Danger Over, 7/1 Funfair Wane,
10/1 Hidden Dragon, 12/1 Prince Dayjur, 14/1 Peruvian Chief, 20/1 Fair Spin,
25/1 Absent Friends, 50/1 Grasslandik, Le Meridien, 66/1 Miss Ceylon, 100/1 Gruff.

Funfair Wane, ................................................................................................... Form = (19), Av = 31k, Ab = 65k
11% 29C 6f 8/25 Fm Thi 8K (28 days) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class C, No improv
76% 75A 6f 12/13 Gd Don 20K (49 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
381% 115B 6f 1/nk Gd Ayr 65K (231 days) (Chk Dist + WIN)
.................................. (100%)
Royal Beacon, ................................................................................................... Form = (19), Av = 34.7k, Ab = 7k
30% 100C 6f 2/shd GF Yar 6K (233 days)(g) (Chk Dist PLACED) Same class C, BUT chk figures
283% 77A 6f 10/10 Gd Yor 72K (262 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
127% 96A 5f 7/4 Gd Goo 26K (282 days) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (93%)
Prince Dayjur, ................................................................................................... Form = (22), Av = 32k, Ab = 9k
24% 68C 6f 10/12 GF Yar 7K (234 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class C, No improv
69% 80A 6f 4/11 GF Nmk 17K (260 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths)
283% 77A 6f 8/11 Gd Yor 72K (626 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (80%)
Danger Over, ................................................................................................... Form = (8), Av = 20.7k, Ab = 10k
45% 111C 6f 1/1 GF Kem 8K (19 days)(g) (Chk Dist + WIN) Same class C, BUT chk figures
175% 101x 5f 4/1 Sft Sir 34K (202 days) (** DIST lengths)
110% 108x 6f 3/1 Sft Dea 20K (256 days) (Chk Dist PLACED)
.................................. (70%)
Peruvian Chief, ................................................................................................... Form = (19), Av = 16.3k, Ab = 13k
69% 80B 6f 8/9 GF Nmk 17K (6 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from B, No improv
62% 102B 5f 1/nk GF Nby 12K (29 days)(g) ** DIST + WIN **
95% 93A 6f 10/6 Gd Don 20K (49 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (48%)
Dragon Flyer, ................................................................................................... Form = (15), Av = 16k, Ab = 7.5k
100% 103A 5f 2/hd Fm Bat 19K (11 days) (** DIST PLACED) ***DOWN in class from A, CHK for improv
57% 93B 5f 5/3 GF Nby 12K (29 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
65% 75B 5f 8/7 St Lin 17K (56 days) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (47%)
Fair Spin, ................................................................................................... Form = (17), Av = 15.7k, Ab = 7k
75% 82A 5f 8/5 GF Hay 18K (21 days)(g) (** DIST lengths) ***DOWN in class from A, No improv
34% 85C 6f 7/8 Fm Thi 8K (28 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
85% 80x 6f 2/6 GS Sir 21K (237 days) (Chk Dist placed ?)
.................................. (41%)
Absent Friends, ................................................................................................... Form = (15), Av = 11k, Ab = 7k
30% 66C 5f 11/13 Fm Bev 9K (24 days)(c) (** DIST lengths) Same class C, BUT chk figures
81% 94A 5f 4/4 Fm Nmk 17K (218 days) (** DIST lengths)
30% 84C 5f 1/shd GF Bev 7K (228 days)(g)(c) ** DIST + WIN **
.................................. (29%)
Hidden Dragon, ................................................................................................... Form = (10), Av = 9.3k, Ab = 8k
40% 99C 6f 4/3 GF Kem 8K (19 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class C, No improv
42% 104C 6f 1/shd Fm Thi 8K (28 days) (Chk Dist + WIN)
56% 92B 7f 5/4 St Lin 12K (35 days) (Down in dist lengths)
.................................. (29%)
Miss Ceylon, ................................................................................................... Form = (25), Av = 10.3k, Ab = 3k
0% 01B 6f 20/46 GS Don 20K (197 days) (Chk Dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from B, No improv
15% 50D 5f 12/8 Gd Mus 6K (236 days) (** DIST lengths)
16% 65D 5f 5/3 GF Cat 5K (267 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (6%)
Le Meridien, ................................................................................................... Form = (12), Av = 3k, Ab = 2k
6% 63F 6f 3/2 GS Ncs 2K (243 days) (Chk Dist PLACED) UP in class from F, BUT chk figures
12% 62D 7f 2/6 GF Yar 4K (258 days)(g) (Down in dist PLACED)
8% 54F 6f 7/3 GS Red 3K (259 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (5%)
Grasslandik, ................................................................................................... Form = (19), Av = 3.7k, Ab = 2k
9% 47E 5f 9/3 GF Rip 4K (23 days)(g) (** DIST lengths) UP in class from E, BUT chk figures
9% 48E 5f 5/3 GF Mus 4K (44 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
5% 33E 5f 5/6 St Sth 3K (60 days) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (4%)
Gruff, ................................................................................................... Form = (25), Av = 3.3k, Ab = 2k
0% 01E 6f 12/25 St Wol 3K (294 days) (Chk Dist lengths) UP in class from E, BUT chk figures
10% 50E 5f 7/7 Fm Cat 4K (304 days) (** DIST lengths)
8% 54E 5f 8/5 Gd Cat 3K (344 days) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (3%)

Fulham,

S****horpe 15 Lincoln 0

No problem,