Mtoto
Iv'e looked at the horses you passed over,There appears to be an awful lot of the Braashee element involved with these selections,Would that be a correct assumption.

I'll be suprised if Theatre time gets turned over today at redcar,But not for me at that price.

Investor,

Unfortunately my copy of The Golden Years doesn't have page numbers, so I have read all the replies to F Chester. One is part of the quote I posted before, I won't post it again. It does mention consistency figures, and consistent form and shows VDW was referring to the same thing. So I think you must be talking about another article as you did reply saying words to the effect he didn't mean what he said. Another article later in the book talks about a possible illusion of form. However he doesn't suggest we go looking into the illusions, instead he says use the consistent form. In fact here are his words.....

{Consistent form relative to the rest of the field, combined with ability in better class events is a force to be reckoned with}

If you go back and read the article Form Can Mislead I don't see how any other interpretation can be put on consistent form and/or what he means by it. It is also interesting he mentions having proof the horse CAN act in the class.

Re the selections posted the other day. I think you will find the ONLY thing they have in common is they are all good class horses, running at top meeting, in good races. They all have proven they can act in the class being attempted.

Fulham,

I would like to think you are right about SOL, can you make him fit using the c/form formula? I think the question should be if you didn't know the winner would/could you select him today using the method?

Johnd/Grundy/anyone else owed an e-mail.

I am receiving e-mail's ok I just can't send any. Hope to get this sorted out very soon, hopefully without losing every thing again!!

Be Lucky

Mtoto
You mention horses that Can act in the class,Then why on earth can't you accept Lord Protector,With your'e selections you forgot to mention the weight factor which is also quite evident.

Does anyone else hold the view that Demonstrate (7.15 Windsor) doesn’t get the mile, based on his last run at Ascot? Bearing in mind it was his seasonal debut, he pulled hard in the early stages, and would have preferred faster ground.

Today he’s got the ground, a less testing track and will be sharper for the run last time. I reckon he’ll reverse the form with Serieux.

Investor,

Sorry you've lost me again. What about the weight? I NEVER look at weight, it doesn't come into my calculations at any time. I think it is a myth that weight will stop a horse. The main thing that stops them is a raise in class. The handicapper does this by raising the OR, dictating the class they can run in. Of course they can be stopped by other factors, wrong conditions, etc. When the easy excuse is it was the weight. People believe this, and don't look for any another reason.

Lord Protector, I just can't see how he could be a VDW selection. Ok, he may have been selected by a method I don't know about. He certainly didn't come from any of the methods VDW explained in detail. He did have form in that class but had been beaten MANY times in lower class. Even when he had a lot of factors in his favour.

Be Lucky

Interesting race for Blatent and Demonstrate?

Betting Forecast: 11/4 Blatant, 7/2 Demonstrate, Serieux, 11/2 Right Approach, 8/1 Patsy's Double, 9/1 Atavus

WINDSOR, 12 May 2003, 7:15, Agfa Royal Windsor Stakes (Colts and Geldings) (Class A) (Listed Race) (3yo+),Winner £20,800.00,(1m67y)1m½f GD-FM, 10 Runners

Right Approach, ................................................................................................... Form = (13), Av = 42.3k, Ab = 6k
100% 74A 10f 8/24 GF Yor 84K (362 days)(g) (Down in dist Unpl) Same class A IMPROVING ***
60% 102A 10f 3/6 GS San 37K (381 days) (Down in dist placed ?)
9% 97C 7f 2/shd Gd Kem 6K (611 days) (Chk Dist PLACED)
.................................. (100%)
Atavus, ................................................................................................... Form = (17), Av = 33.7k, Ab = 19k
43% 94x 7f 6/8 /Y Cur 29K (36 days) (Chk Dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from 29K, No improv
34% 106A 8f 4/6 Gd Don 20K (53 days) (** DIST lengths)
86% 103x 7f 7/4 GF Lon 52K (211 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (96%)
Demonstrate, ................................................................................................... Form = (8), Av = 27k, Ab = 14.7k
19% 101B 8f 3/3 Gd Asc 12K (12 days) (** DIST PLACED) UP in class from B, BUT chk figures
103% 111A 7f 4/4 Gd Nmk 58K (205 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
18% 107B 7f 1/3 GF Nmk 11K (221 days)(g) (Chk Dist + WIN)
.................................. (83%)
Blatant, ................................................................................................... Form = (4), Av = 18.3k, Ab = 14k
49% 115x 8f 2/shd GF Cur 27K (239 days)(g) (** DIST PLACED) ***DOWN in class from 27K IMPROVING ***
41% 112x 8f 1/4 Gd Trl 23K (257 days) ** DIST + WIN **
6% 79x 8f 1/3 Sft Naa 5K (280 days) ** DIST + WIN **
.................................. (57%)

Mtoto
I'm not Talking about weight stopping a horse,It must be coincidence then but have you looked at the weight aspect,Prior to the races you backed them in.

Mtoto

Looking at the old examples one can never be absolutely sure what the c/f was (except, of course, in the minority of caes when VDW was explicit), or that one would have found the same selection as VDW. Who knows what ideas might have come into one's mind, eg comments in the Life, a prior sense that one or other of the runners was being preped for the race etc. And knowledge of the result cannot but be a potential influence on one's thinking, albeit sub-consciously.

That said, applying my normal procedure for identifying the class/form horse to the 1979 St Leger field leads me to the following conclusions:

first, seven of the eight higher ability rated horses than Son of Love were not form horses in the context of the race;

second, Son of Love was certainly a form horse;

third, of the eight horses with lower ability ratings than Son of Love, only one could, in the context of the race, plausibly be regarded as a form horse.

Comparing the possible higher ability rated form horse (Reprocolour) with Son of Love, I doubt that you would have any difficulty deciding which to back in a match at the weights.

Thus I am in exactly the same position with this VDW example as I was when backing Spirit Leader on 8 February. In that race, you may recall, Copeland may have been the c/f, and SL the 2nd c/f: I'm still not sure. But at the weights, and under the conditions prevailing, there was no doubt that SL would beat Copeland, hence he was the bet. In the 1979 Leger, Reprocolour could, conceivably, have been the c/f, but in my view Son of Love was certain to beat her, and would thus have been the selection.

CHAS
the Raceform comments on Demonstrates last race are "easy in the market, failes to settle early and did not see out the mile. He is a seven-furlong specialist." .
Also I cannot see where he has shown he can handle a sharp track.
Hope that helps.
Regards Bumper.

Bumper,

Yes that’s the opinion of the race reader. I’m not so sure that opinion is correct though. As to the handling the track, he may not have any form on a sharp track but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he won’t act on one.

Mtoto

LORD PROTECTOR

mAY 23RD gOODWOOD 7 GD C CLASS 11 2ND BTN HD @ 6/1

jUNE 7TH GOODWOOD 7 GS C CLASS 10 2ND BTN 2 1/2 LNGTHS @ 5/2

Next 2 races whacked up in class

22nd july Ayr 7 gd c class 8 5th btn 2 1/4 lgs @ 2/1

10th aug Newm 7 b class 19 outclassed

20th sept ayr 6 gd b class 14 distance wrong

18th oct newm 7 gd c class 9 winner @ 20/1

vdw also mentioned the fact that the perms were endless,Obviously what you see above you have to apply some thought but the form is there if you open your'e mind and put some thought into it.

Chaz
I'll have a ramble if you don't mind,I believe you are going against the c/f horse,Which in itself is pushing the odds away from you,The gosden horse could well reverse placings 3lb better of for 3 1/2 lgs but the form of both Serieux and demonstrate doesn't make my pulse quicken and should be left to run.

Investor,

Thanks for the comments, can I take it from your post that you think the race readers comments about Demonstrate not getting the mile are incorrect?

Chaz
I,m not saying the horse didn't get the mile,And it could quite possibly come on for the run demonstrate had been dropped a long way and was installed 9/4 fav,The horse to my mind should have put up a better performance,Like i said could well reverse the form.I wish you luck if you play.

Some of the prices available really p... me off these 2yr olds to follow at 3 don't come along like buses and then they open up at odds of 4/11,I don't know why i bother waiting for these types.

Chaz,

I make Demonstrate the BEST HORSE in the race. I can see were your coming from, but I would worry about Serieux. The second rated has proven the distance is no problem, and should act on the course. I can see no reason why Demonstrate won't get the mile, for me the doubt would be the easier course may not help. I think S may have too much finishing speed. If it was just between these 2 (and I don't think it is) I would be happy to back S. At the prices available I will just be watching, good luck if you do play.

Investor,

I think we are going to have to just disagree about LP. You say outclassed on the 10/8 at Newmarket. How this is a lower class than his best run on the same course with the same weight?

Fulham,

I can't see why Ninski is out of form, or form not relevant for this race. As you have SOL as a form horse it can't be the distance. The prize money is better because SOL raced in France. Ninski's form is progressive, SOL doesn't APPEAR to be (4th last seems to be his best). Going should suit SOL, but course should favour Ninski.
Could you confirm the distance of Soleil Noir's last race, the printing is a little fuzzy?
I have to say I don't have any problems if I only apply the c/form formula to the consistent horses.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Well iv'e gone as far as i can with that one,Again i will say the class in which a horse runs is not the same as the class it competes in.

Mtoto

1m 4.5f.

CHAZ,

alright mate, here is my view for what its worth.

This is a ten runner race and from these, five are down in race class. You have selected two of the five that are up in class?

I find conflict in the race as a whole chiefly between right approach (class) and Atavus (ability), blatent and kings ironbridge have also shown they are capable at this leval.

With regard to your specific's I think that demonstrate will get the trip here at windsor and in his last race there are indications that he could reverse the form with serioux but under the circumstances I dont think it likely.

I think atavus is overpriced at 14/1 and I will have a pound on him for fun in what, for me, is not a serious betting race.