Barney

I think its a very dirty bus as it seems many people looking at it come up with different numbers

Lee,

When you say you don't work in the same way as Guest. Does that mean you don't use the c/form idea, or that you use it in a different way?

After you have rated the horses, and placed a numerical gauge against them, don't they then become ratings? I completely agree these rated horses need to have other considerations taken into account. There again so does this infamous a/rating.

I think I have gone to great pains to point out the 'other' rating(s) are not just the basic ratings that can be found in a sporting paper. If the rating was just a bare s/f BL would not be well out of it. That also applies to the a/rating for this horse. His c/rating like his a/rating do nothing to show he wouldn't be the selection, so without the 'other' rating(s) how do you, and VDW come to that conclusion?

The only way I have seen is the c/form method. To make this work do you also have BL as a non form horse with whatever method/idea you use? If he just isn't good enough, now do the guide lines VDW has shown bring you to that conclusion? The only avenue left seems to be the form book, and I think that is far from conclusive. Even if a case can be made against BL, how does the case for PK stand up?

Be Lucky

A Race Unfolds

Held Up :
The horse was restrained as part of a deliberate strategy anywhere in the field (not necessarily among the backmarkers).

Took Keen Hold
The horse was rather headstrong & needed significant restraint.

Pulled Hard
The horse was very headstrong, unwilling to accept restraint, and possibly tossing it`s head around.

Effort
The jockey began to make his (or her) move.

Under Pressure
A general term to indicate that the jockey had to encourage the horse along, probably with some use of the whip.

Pushed Along
The jockey was urging the horse along gently, using hands only, with no use of the legs or whip.

Ridden
Harder than "pushed along", with the jockey firmly using hands and heels.There may also have been some use of the whip."Hard ridden" is even stronger, probably with more whip activity."Ridden along" suggests the jockey was at work for a lengthy period.

Driven
Like "hard ridden", with the jockey forcefully using hands, heels and whip.

Hard Driven
Jockey used everything at his disposal to keep the horse going.

Pushed Clear
The jockey deliberately sent the horse into a decisive lead with gentle use of hands only."Ridden clear" implies stronger hands-and-heels riding, sometimes with minor whip use."Driven clear" is stronger still, often with significant use of the whip.

Edged Right/Left
The horse showed a minor tendancy to drift of a straight line (in the specified direction).

Hung Right/Left
The horse showed a serious tendancy to drift of a straight line, and may have needed significant action from the jockey to correct it."Veered" is even more severe.

Not Clear Run
The way ahead was blocked by other horses.

Not Much Room
The horse was being sqeezed on both sides by other horses, or between another horse and the running rail.

Switched Right/Left
The jockey asked the horse to change direction to avoid an obstruction ahead.

Mistake
The horse made a jumping error."Mistakes" usually means four or more.

Blundered
A worse jumping error than "mistake".

Hit
The horse took the obstacle far too low but did not lose much momentum.

Not Fluent
The horse`s jumping was not as smooth as it ought to have been, but not as bad as "not jump well" or, worse still, " jumped badly".

Pecked
The horse did not make a significant jumping error, but it`s nose nearly touched the ground on the landing side.

Weakened
The horse`s stride shortened significantly as it became tired.

No Extra
The horse was in contention as the race approached it`s climax, but did not find as much as those who finished in front of it.

Not Quicken
The horse was unable to find a sufficient change of pace.

Stayed On
The horse proved it`s ability to stay the trip, showing evidence of sufficient stamina, but without quickening." Stayed on well" indicates that the horse`s stamina was having a significant effect at the finish, offering clear evidence that it might be at home over a longer trip."Stayed on strongly" is used for a particularly powerful finish.

Kept On
The horse struggled on willingly, even though it did not quicken to any significant extent."Kept on well" shows that the horse did everything it could to find a little more as the race reached it`s climax.A game effort.

Ran On
The horse stretched out in a perfectly satisfactory fashion in the closing stages."Ran on well" is used for a horse which put in a very good finishing effort.

Finished Well
The horse put in a particularly strong finish in comparison to most of it`s rivals, closing well on the winner or other principal contenders at the line.

Finished Fast
The horse made up an immense amount of ground in the closing stages.

Rallied
The horse came back into contention after losing it`s place.

Not Run On
The horse seemed reluctant to respond to the jockey`s request when asked for an effort. not an encouraging sign.

Found Nil
The horse appeared to be going well, but proved very disappointing when asked to quicken.

More later Black Cat enjoy the hols.

Mtoto,

Does rating a horse’s form not become ratings? In short no – rating a horse’s form in the way I’m sure VDW did it cannot be shown in the form of a rating, i.e. a single numerical value.

I work in a way that I believe VDW used consistently throughout.

I’m fully aware of the voices that say consistency is a worthless tool to winner finding. But this simply is not the case. Of course, used at face value, just like favourite backing for instance, it becomes a worthless tool to winner finding.

However, VDW exercised temperament, and only when one of the THREE probables had all in its favour did he support it.

In my opinion people have continued to over complicate matters which suggests to me that they’ve not listened/understood what VDW was saying.

His mention of form horses/non form horses was in order to highlight seemingly likely contenders who actually weren’t ready to win. Sounds obvious, but it was his way of bringing to the fore the likely pitfalls ahead.

“I appreciate that there were many arguments in favour of Luck Vane which could cause the unwary to throw their money away, but this only serves to show just how controversial the game is”.

I have Beacon Light ‘well out of it’ also, and not a form horse – but that’s easy for me to say.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Lee,

Lee,

Forgive my curiosity but would 'consistancy', for you at least, only involve those races where you suspect the horse has had his ideal conditions?

I work from the supposition that at their ideal conditions, apart from a few rogues, all horses are consistant, though their trainers may hold them back. (Leaving younger and underexposed horses out of the argument for the timebeing.)

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

mtoto, lee,barney, referring to ability rating if iam right did vdw, first use ability rating with an example diamond edge, i believe running in the john bull chase vdw stated there is an incentive for the lower class horse not to run in the high class conditions race off almost level weights and an incentive to run in the handicap carrying a low weight, vdw mentined there is much to be gained by further asessment of these comments?..any members remember this example.

Lee,

Are you suggesting the ratings shown in SIAO are not the same as the rating(s) mentioned in the Erin example?

In his introduction he lists 6 steps to follow. Step 6 is, {Apply selected rating method to entire fields}. Then in the examples he uses the word ratings above a list of 2 ratings. He also says in the introduction.............


{To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses' chances in the present situation and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings, etc. but always keep in mind they are a guide. I use two sets of ratings which are compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures, but this is not essential}.

I also think it is interesting to note in the Sunset Cristo example he says of the forecast favourite, {King or Country does not have anything going for it}. This is even with having a c/rating of 7 (joint 2nd lowest) and a a/rating of 19 (4th highest). If the 'other' ratings were not being used, how would he, or anyone else know this? With these ratings being shown, it is easy to see KOC is joint 2nd lowest in both columns.

I don't think it is very clear from these examples which rating(s) take precedents.

All this is not to say I agree some are making it over complicated. I feel this problem is mainly down to trying to find set procedures to make a horse a form horse, or not, as the case maybe.

Grundy,

You are correct this is the first time VDW mentioned, and explained this a/rating.

Be Lucky

Post Race

All Out
The horse was flat to the boards and could not have found any more.The winning margin does not have to be smallfor this phrase to be used (a horse may be "all out" to win by 10 lengths if it is exhausted.

Readily
The horse responded willingly when asked, and was well on top at the finish.

Pushed Out
The jockey employed gentle hand riding to see the horse home.

Comfortably
The horse won with something in hand."Not extended" ammounts to the same thing, the horse did not have to work hard to achieve victory due to the lack of a strong challenge in the closing stages.

Easily
The horse won with plenty in hand.

Very Easily
The horse won with an immense amount in hand.

Eased
The horse was in control before the winning line was reached and the jockey deliberately slowed it down in the closing stages.Before this happened , it looked sure to win by a wider margin than the official winning distance would suggest.

Hard Held
The horse was good enough to win despite being strongly restrained throughout, and appeared to a very easy winner.Almost certainly outclassed its opponents, with the jockey never asking it any kind of question.

Unchallenged
This is used for a horse which has made a good deal of the running and which has not been challenged by another runner from a long way out.

Gamely
The horse battled particularly hard to win, this is where it ends BC as my son chewed the rest up lol.

I feel the comments on raceform & the racing post are quite different so if you use the raceform returns then this will be of some use to you BlackCat. But if you normally use the racing post then im afraid it may not as they do differ somewhat in their race reviews, good luck to you anyway.

duplicate post

Mtoto,

It’s not suggesting that they are definitely different, but VDW certainly gave the impression that they could be.

JP Hollis brought the question up as follows:

“Mr Van Der Wheil, in one of his articles, mentioned that he had two methods of rating the horses that he was inspecting. He went further by saying that he rated Beacon Light well out of it using these ratings.”

In his reply VDW acknowledges the subject with the following:

“Perhaps it would help JP Hollis and get GGG Edmonton’s suggestion off the ground if some discussion took place on the subject of rating and ratings.

“Two different matters. May I again suggest that ratings are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors and in this light, perhaps JP Hollis is looking in the wrong direction. There are numerous methods of rating and it is simple to devise one yourself, but first a sound basis is required.”

And once again, note that it is at this point that the ability rating is introduced.

JIB,

Not really. I have many ways of fishing for horses to follow. There are trainers and there are trainers, and when they have a horse ready the good ones don’t often get the placement side of things wrong.

That`s definately interesting Lee trainers placement. If we could figure out which trainers were proficient in the placement stakes on a regular basis then bob would be yer auntie.

Walter

Im already looking into trainers on where they place them and im starting to notice a few winners without looking at the form of the horse

Cheers Rab,
Maybe you can help, Ive been keeping an eye on Viewforth of late, he has gone from Semple to Goldie, ive put him up on the tipping challenge twice & been wide of the mark.
Do you think he is still capable or should i forget about him?.

Duplicate Post Again!.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: walter pigeon,

Semple and Goldie are very hard to follow but are most likley to win with a horse when it appears to have no chance,Semple had 2 at Carlisle the other day and had 33/1 2nd and a 10/1 winner,I had the 2 doubled for a small stake,Get them next time
Nicholls is another,Last night he had 4 in a race and the outsider or drifter of them won at 8/1,
This may not be VDW but as what has been said its very easy to tie the 2 methods together when youve got the stats in your favour,
It will take me a while yet to get all the stats i want on a file,Im to slow at typing so i will get someone to do it for me then i will send them to who ever wants 1

Rab,

You can stick my name down for one!

John
Would agree that Trade Fair is not as good on good/g/s ground. His Dewhurst run was on fast ground, though officially good.
Tout Seul is probably better on this ground, but his Lockinge run was abysmal. He has yet to show that he has recovered from injury.
Abunawwas's recent form is only fair in the context of this race, but he was probably disadvantaged by the distance both times, and may improve enough over 7f to take this, though it would be a no bet race for me.

3.40 - Curragh

The first 5 in the forecast:

Naahy *
Abunawwas *
Latino Magic *
Millennium Force *
One More Round
Trade Fair

* - Three most consistent

The 3 coming from the highest class race last time out:

Sea Dart
Avorado
Latino Magic

Sea Dart and Avorado can be disregarded, as both have showed nothing. Note Latino Magic is the only one to appear in both lists.

Indeed I have him coming out best of all when rating the above horses, and for me he comes out the most likely winner.

3.40 C

OK lets look at the - Owners !

Firstly - Owners 2 year record


Millenium Force - 0
One more Round - 0
Tout Seul - 1
Avorado - 0
Latino Majic - 0

The rest I have subdivided cos they are all Arabs !

These are wins over 2 years with 4yo+ !!

Naahy - 1- Kuwwait Racing Syndicate - arguably not "Proper" Arab !

Trade Fair - 10 - K.Abdula

Sea Dart - 12 - Sheikh Mohammed

Abunwwas - 21 - Hamden Al Maktoum

-

Note - that of these - only HAM has had more than one winner in this age group - this season - he has had 9 !!!

As always tho - count the number of Arabs surrounding the horse in the paddock before the race, and look for "Happy" faces !!!



Abunawwas - EW.

tc