Rob

240a

"no group 3 form or better"

some of these have form against the finest stayers that britain has to offer.

Investor,

The name of the horse is Braashee. This is the quote......

{Braashee was in fact going up again in class, but there was no other horse in the race bar Cossack Guard (beaten in his previous race by Braashee) who came close on a class basis. Braashee came home the winner, starting at 8/1.}

As with all VDW methods nothing is set in stone, if it was it would be a system. That is the beauty of it, you have to do some thinking. I have no intention of trying to change your mind about Ad Hoc, it's your privilege to disagree. Remember though you are disagreeing with someone that has spent many hours even years studying VDW.(not me) Are you that confident you are right, perhaps it is worth thinking about again?

Re Top Speed it's up to you, I have only posted an opinion?

Your last post worries me. It only shows I don't explain myself very well. I believe there are several well defined methods. One of which is called the consistency method (I assume it is called that because VDW didn't give it a name, and it is the easiest way to describe it) With this method the main element is consistent horses, these are the horse he went to the trouble of high lighting in his first examples.

Another method is the Roushayd, it is this method the article you posted is talking about. For me the main element is an improving horse, this improvement is judged on s/f. I think that fact is the only fixed point in the method.

Hope this clears up any confusion, my writing must be bad. If the man that cracked the best/bet method, and found the second picture, can't follow what I have been trying to say.

Sorry.

Be Lucky

Barney

Perhaps you could elaborate.

There are only two group 3 winners in the field. One is Orchestra Stall, an 11yo who hasn't won has only run twice since his lst win in 2000. The other is Savannah Bay who won a 4-runner G3 at Longchamp last Autumn, but is held by Spanish John.

To my mind there is no solid winning or close up Group 3 to merit further investigation. There could be one or two capable of improvement from Listed level but not enough to tie down a confident selection.

Rob

Mtoto
Fair comment r.e Braashee,I never said i'd cracked anything,But i'm getting there,I did say i would make mistakes that is inevitable,Oh and by the way your'e writings fine,Mine has a lot to be desired.Good luck if you play today.

PARP!

Barney

Before you say anything, yes Orchestra Stall has won! Hasn't won since 2000!!

Rob

Mtoto
Would it be possible for you to tell me the s/f's you had for Ad hoc prior to the whitbread.

Out of courtesy,I'll take the bait,what it means is,if the three horses mentioned were analysed using vdw or my interpretation of it,then Desert Deer could/should not be backed,the other two could have been.Hope this helps,but you probably knew that already.

Rob,

re kadoun

I think he will struggle with 11-12 in this handicap

Barney

The weight could have a bearing. However Mr Cullen's allowance drops him by 5lbs to 11-7 and he won carrying 11-7 in the mud at Leopardstown 2 runs ago, quickening clear on the flat to win by 25 lengths, though admittedly at a shorter distance.

Rob.

Rob,

I take your point but that was a relatively weak novice chase where he did not give any significant weight away, in fact he received weight from some poor horses.

Barney

Possibly, but the distances were 25 lengths, 2 lengths and a distance which suggests he had his field well beaten, and he could do no more than that. Native Sessions who won a class 220 event at Navan last time was well beaten and is only 7lbs better off now.

Incidentally, do you see a likely winner, or are you giving the race a miss?

I thought my brief summaries might lead to more comment, but if this thread goes to form many of them will be after the event!!

Rob

Rob,

novice handicap chases are not really my cup of tea, but from the forcast area the only one I could seriously consider backing would be ballybrophy, but overall its not a pretty picture and I wont be.

Mtoto
Was Banjo hill too short for you today?

Investor.

I had Ad Hoc's s/f at Kempton 91 (best ever) Ayr 93 (best ever). I always use the RFU figures as a cross check they were Kempton 111 (best ever) and Ayr 111 (Joint best) So for me he was improving and for RFU he had confirm his improvement. However you look at it a horse in prime form.

As I have said VDW is a hobby, I only concentrate on the top meetings in real life. I only looked at Ascot today, and that boiled down to one race for me the 3:10. So Banjo Hill wasn't looked at, the price seems fair enough. I don't think I would have played in the race even if I had looked at it. There is only one NH race left I will look at, the big hurdle race at Haydock.

Rob North,

I don't understand your comment about the only races talked about are after the advent. Many races are discussed and/or views given before the off. If you had mentioned the Ascot 3:10, I would have responded. I happen to think as much can be learnt after the race, as before.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
wether it,s an hobby or not,It's a race that is well worth evaluating, and comparing it with that of Pegwell bay in betting the vdw way,It had also showed improvement in higher class which was evident in the s/f's (topspeed).

Mtoto - The ability rating will prove false if taken alone. It only has any real benefit if combined with form in the way VDW used it.

The mention of Braashee is interesting especially if you ponder the relevance of Cossack Guard. Again, here was VDW subtly bringing attention to an important point for us to decipher.

Guest
Mtoto really cannot see the points your'e trying to convey.

Fulham,

what did you make of first gold yesterday?