HOME »
|
Go
 |
New
|
Find
|
Notify
|
Tools
|
Reply
|
|
| <mickeddy>
|
Hi all,
To my way of thinking the ability rating shows the level(class) that the horse competes and wins in, which may not be the class in which it races in. 'In most cases the horse selected by VDW had either shown at the 1f or 2f mark or had won a decent amount of prize money in a particular race. A number of his selections also had the beating of the others in the form book on weight alone' Peach-Note following letter number 12 Betting forecast narrows the field. The hard part of studying VDW is that he had several variations of his method and when he analysed races you were never sure which one he was using. Further to the weight debate he did write that under N.H. rules and taking both handicap chases and hurdles 75% of winnes carry 11-5lbs or less and that 50% come from the BOTTOM half of the framed handicap. Note that top weight on the day may not necessarily be top of the framed handicap. I think that it is this that sometimes causes confusion when weight is discussed. See you soon, Mike. |
||
|
|
Member |
Lee,
Another interesting post. For me it raises the question if weight was a major factor in the methods mechanics, can you explain the following....... Zamandra 26/12/84 carried 11st 9lbs. Previous weights carried 10st 5lbs and 10st. An increase of 18lbs plus, and a large amount of dead weight (up to 23lbs) Sunset Cristo 7/3/81 carried 11st 7lbs. Previous weight carried 10st 11lbs, and 10st 1lb. An increase of 10lbs, and a large amount of dead weight (up to 21lbs) Canny Danny 15/12/84 carried 11st 8lbs. Previous weight carried 10st 7lbs an increase of 15lbs, not sure how much dead weight. Before anyone says he carried 12st in the race on the 17/11/84. Look at the class of that race, and course. I think that is were the REAL leveller comes in, CLASS How many that are trying to follow VDW would have dismissed these horses because of the present thinking on weight? I have to agree you have quoted VDW correctly, he did write that weight was a great leveller. That is were I think he showed how conventional some of his views were. He may have said it but did he believe it? these examples suggest he made exceptions. Mike has stated VDW said 75% of winners carried 11st 5lbs or less, (NH) Has anyone checked this statistic? I find it hard to believe. The one time I quoted some statistics Guest said they were meaningless, that maybe true. Why are VDW's statistics taken as gospel? To close, I also think the ability rating wasn't used in the first example. As you point out, some only see what they want too see. The ability was judged by the other ratings, in the first example AND the Little Owl, etc. examples. Be Lucky |
||
|
|
Member |
I think that posters ought to try and understand the quote " winner in the race " what do you think this means,I believe a good example ran today i e JAYBEJAY 15 lgths clear when falling but nevertheless ( in my interpretation ) it was a horse well worthy of support.
 |
||
|
|
Member |
Rank the first 6 in the betting (Flat HCP's)
By weight and you get another little handicap with a topweight and a bottom weight (a 6 horse race) If I remember correctly the last time I did this from the races where the winner comes from the first 6 in the betting the top 3 weights =60% of the winners the bottom 3 40% of those winners A small bios But a bios non the less in favour of the higher weighted horses |
||
|
|
Member |
Mtoto,
For some time after I first took up the challenge of analysing VDW’s examples I was fooled in to thinking that the ‘weight dropping’ scenario was part of the so-called “key” which was talked about. There were other examples as well that fit the bill that you are picking up on, Stray Shot is one that springs to mind. Not only was there a weight rise, he was also going up in class, as was Zamandra. Fortunately the answer is not looking for horses dropping in weight, as you are aware. The answer is finding the balance between class and form. Just taking the first horse in your list, Zamandra, she carried one penalty for the one chase won last time, as stipulated in the conditions, but being a ‘chick’ horse this was negated by the mares allowance. That win was on ground faster than she preferred but nevertheless a good run. Prior to this she got within 7 lengths of Jockambel whilst in receipt of weight, on soft ground, after blundering at the last. The weight that Zamandra carried, in this Novice company, was never going to pose a problem when the form of the horses involved was compared. If people are dismissing horses like Zamandra etc. then that is because they haven’t done their home work as far as VDW is concerned. As I’ve suggested before VDW’s view on weight is not quite as conventional as you may think, but it is a definite one all the same. Not all horses are like Wing and a Prayer, some take a little more sorting out. A horse dropping in weight has nothing to do with VDW’s selection process. It is just coincidence that some are, but then again some aren't. One thing that I will say is that you are correct to assume that there is a bias towards the top of the handicap as follows. Handicap Chase/Hurdles 0-125 and above, top 3rd = 42%, middle = 30%, bottom = 28%. This pretty much ties in with what Boozer has stated. |
||
|
|
Member |
Lee,
While I except Zamandra may not have been a very good example, as the race wasn't a handicap. It doesn't take away the fact that some/many people trying to understand VDW wouldn't have considered this horse, because of the weight increase. VDW said it's what happens on the track that counts. Put that beside his statement about weight limitations, and you can see why people would think an increase in weight would stop a horse being a selection. Interesting you say a drop in weight has nothing to do with the selection method. Reading a recent post of yours rather insinuated that was the main reason for selecting PK for the Erin. Guest in one of his posts also suggested that if a horse couldn't carry the weight in a lower class he certainly couldn't carry more weight when raised in class. Class was judged on prize money not the class of the runners in the race. I can't find the posting, but if I remember correctly the first race had a couple of horses with bigger OR's, in the second race he was the highest. Nothing will ever persuade me the horse had gone up in class. I would also like to say I don't use OR's when I judge ability. Although I do use them as a x check, or when I need to split 2 or more horses. Any thoughts on the 'other' ratings, or do you think it is coincidence ALL the selections were top rated in both columns? Be Lucky |
||
|
|
Member |
Mtoto,
Like I made clear in my post, it is not an ESSENTIAL part of the method that a horse must be dropping in weight for it to be a selection. Further to the examples that you put to bolster your argument concerning weight, and concede after I posted that the first one wasn’t in the end a good example. In truth though, none of them are. Again, VDW had a definite view on weight and it’s effects, but they were certainly not as simplistic as ‘is the horse carrying less or not?’ VDW stated in his text that much was made of his ratings, but in truth any reliable set will do the job, and they were not the be all and end all. May I ask is there any part of the process that VDW suggested we use to narrow the field of vision, which you actually use? VDW implicitly stated that when he referred to a horse going up or down in class this meant in terms of WIN prize money on offer. You say that you will never be persuaded. VDW implicitly stated that too much weight was an undesirable factor. But again it seems that you will never be persuaded. May I suggest that the reason you have come to this conclusion is that you are looking at the problem with a closed mind. VDW didn’t just look at the prize money of a race, note it was less than last time, and come to the conclusion that this was a lesser contest. VDW didn’t just note a horses weight and see that it was dropping, and then come to the conclusion that the horse had a lesser task on its hands. If you are adamant that the tools VDW used to come to his decisions are, in your eyes, useless, why carry on? Why bother questioning them when you say that you’ll never be persuaded? Aren’t you wasting your time? |
||
|
|
Member |
Hello All,
hope you and yours are well and happy. Lee, over time I've come to the conclusion that successful weight bearing depends on the class the horse is competeing in. The higher the class the less weight the horse must carry to be successful. There are of course exceptions, horses that can carry high weights irrespective of class but this is shown in the horses past performances. I've also come to the conclusion that in novice and condition events weight is a lesser factor. It's not like a handicap in which a spread of 2 stone is possible. I'd be very grateful for your comments on these observations. All the best hedgehog |
||
|
|
Member |
Hedgehog,
As you say, a horse rising in class of handicap will indeed carry less weight against its better (in the handicappers opinion) class rivals. It is here where those that scoff the class rating are missing the point that VDW was putting across. People on here argue that class in the way that VDW saw it doesn’t correlate with that of the conventional way of handicapping. Let me tell you straight away that they are spot on. Consider the following. Nowadays a 0-125 handicap chase can have on offer around 4k up to as much as 17k in WIN prize money. Compare that to a 0-145 chase which can range from around 7k up to around 30k. VDW took a completely different view of class, which related to the prize money on offer and prize money already won. In view of the above consider now the options that a trainer has when aiming his horse at a 12k WIN. The weight and opposition can all of a sudden be cherry picked, and it was VDW’s intention to identify when this had happened. Novice, maidens and the likes still have a weight puzzle to solve in that horses are awarded penaltys for winning under certain conditions. It’s interesting to note how many so-called good things get beat next time out under a penalty. Also quite a bit of trickery can go on in a horses early days and a lot of decent horses amazingly don’t win any of their first few races, which is worth considering why! Hope this helps. |
||
|
| <mickeddy>
|
Hi all,
I think that the only certainty when discussing weight is that if you keep giving a good horse more weight to carry you will eventually slow it down, but taking weight from a horse will not make it run any faster than its ability allows. How many times , as one member has already stated, do the handicap certs. get beat. A horse will only run to its ability regardless of what weight it carries if its in form. Trainers know when the time is right as anyone who saw Nicky Henderson on TV this morning will know. He stated that if Polar Red(M.Pipe) did not run in the Imperial Cup tomorrow it would mean Non So carrying 11-12lbs due to the rise in weights which he thought was too much. Polar Red is not running and interestingly enough neither is Non So. Trainers handicap their own horses. See you soon, Mike. |
||
|
|
The Vital Spark Member  |
|
||
|
|
Member |
Lee
Heres a scenario I would like your comments on Two 20 runner hcp races have exactly the same horses engaged to run One is a £24000 race the other is a £12000 race In the £24000 race the 10 highest rated horses run like dogs and all finish down the field so the first 10 places are filled with the lowest rated horses In the £12000 race the 10 lowest rated horses run like dogs and all finished down the field so the first 10 places are filled with the highest rated horses In which race would you like a horse you are interested in to mark his card? The scenario is not as far fetched as it looks |
||
|
|
Member |
John,
I’ll try and answer as best I can, but I’m unsure as to which part of my post/s you are at variance with. Your 2nd paragraph seems to be in agreement with what I last posted. The class of race, and therefore the class of horse that are competing, in conventional terms, are not affected by the amount of prize money at stake, or indeed the horses entry to a race is not affected by the amount of WIN prize money that the horses has previously won. All the class of race does, in conventional terms, is decide the amount of weight each horse will carry, in handicaps of course, as far as VDW was concerned. It is necessary to then decide if there is a winner in the race. The only way to do this is by comparing performances against each other, taking everything that VDW suggested in to account, which will eventually lead to a conclusion of the class/form merit of each horse in the race. Surely prize money is by far the most important thing on a Trainer’s mind. He will eventually have a good idea of the conditions that best suit the horse and can then aim for the best prize under those conditions. VDW was shrewd enough to realise this was the case and devised a method that took this factor in to account. |
||
|
|
Member |
Lee,
Once again I can't quite follow your thinking. VDW said weight was a great leveller, and dead weight was a bigger handicap than live weight. I have pointed out VDW at times ignored his own thinking. The races were chosen to show that he was prepared to over look weight, of both types You ask what if any parts of VDW I use. I use everything that makes sense, consistency, class, form, etc. The class (of the horse) element is from another method VDW suggested, you may not like it but it is there in black and white. The class of the race may not be VDW, but that doesn't make it any the less valid. VDW said himself there are other ways to judge class. He even went into detail to show it could be judged by the class of the courses the races were run on. Why do I study VDW? It's because I want to know how he worked. I don't want to know how other people THINK he worked. When I study the examples I try to find the selections the way he would have. He used several methods, all of which were based on class and form. Some are saying the c/form method works for all examples, I don't agree. By trying to make the c/form method work for all, people are trying to find out why some horses aren't a form horse. In doing this, I think they are getting a false impression of how VDW viewed form. Closed mind, I wonder who has a closed mind, could it possibly be the ones that are happy to except they are right? Just a small example Beacon Light, it would have been easy just to except he was out of form. I think an open mind would question it, and look to see if there was another way BL could fail to be the selection. After all VDW didn't say he was, it is others that need him to be for the c/form method to work. Another small example is the other ratings, if any good rating would do, why go to the trouble of calculating your own? I think some have closed their minds, if they didn't they may have to start revaluating their thinking. Mike, I don't think it is a case of Henderson handicapping his own horse, it looks more like Pipe doing it for him! Be Lucky |
||
|
| <Fulham>
|
Mtoto
I've been somewhat pre-occupied for some days, though I've tried to keep up to date with postings. But for the avoidance of doubt, I would be interested to know of examples in which you currently think VDW "ignored his own thinking". |
||
|
|
Member |
Mtoto,
May I ask at what point in your study of VDW's examples did you decide that the Ability Rating was of no use. And what was it exactly that made you change your viewpoint? |
||
|
|
Member |
Boozer,
I've just noticed your post, I'm not ignoring you. I'll reply after racing this afternoon. |
||
|
|
Member |
The twin questions of weight and class would seem to be dominating current discussions:
WEIGHT quote: Evidence that VDW ignored weight? I think not. CLASS quote: Let's continue this football analogy. We have 4 divisions in England. If Birmingham were to beat Arsenal next weekend, then would you say they had shown form because they beat another Premier League team, or would you say they had shown form because they beat Arsenal? VDW has already told us how he rates class..... |
||
|
|
Member |
Fulham,
Glad to see your back, hope the last few days weren't to bad for you. The races I am talking about are as follows. The only thing I am talking about is the weight (dead or otherwise) I have no trouble with the selections in any way. Just I think some people would have ignored the selections if they were in current races. Zamandra 26/12/84 carried 11st 9lbs. Previous weights carried 10st 5lbs and 10st. An increase of 18lbs plus, and a large amount of dead weight (up to 23lbs) Sunset Cristo 7/3/81 carried 11st 7lbs. Previous weight carried 10st 11lbs, and 10st 1lb. An increase of 10lbs, and a large amount of dead weight (up to 21lbs) Canny Danny 15/12/84 carried 11st 8lbs. Previous weight carried 10st 7lbs an increase of 15lbs, not sure how much dead weight. Before anyone says he carried 12st in the race on the 17/11/84. Look at the class of that race, and course. I think that is were the REAL leveller comes in, CLASS. Be Lucky |
||
|
|
Member |
Twenty-one go to post for a very competitive renewal of this handicap, but, after the defection of Polar Red, Non So and Full Irish and the ensuing 11lb weight rise, only a small handful are under the 10st 9lbs limit . Once the other clauses are activated, only JANIDOU -trained by Arthur Moore in Ireland and third at Leopardstown on his latest start - is left, and he is a possible selection.
i would welcome any comments,,grundy |
||
|
| Previous Topic | Next Topic | powered by groupee community | Page 1 ... 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 ... 854 |
 | Please Wait. Your request is being processed... |
|
|||
| Site | Gummy Racing Forum | ||
| Servlet | eve2da005 | ||
| Version | 1.2.11 build 8443 | ||
| Module | Forums 4.0.3 | ||
| Stylesheet | "MyPop Style" | ||
| Wordlet Set | "Default Wordlet Set" | ||
|
|
|
| View $GS_USERNAME's Public Profile |
| Add $GS_USERNAME to my Buddies |
| Invite $GS_USERNAME to a Private Topic |
| View Recent Posts by $GS_USERNAME |
| Notify me of New Posts by $GS_USERNAME |
