I have never been much of Speed Figure fan until lately
Interesting to note that according to the Raceform speed Figs
Luna Leo scored 112 in what I call his Key race
That figure is only 1 point off his Lifetime best

I would have been slightly concerned though of the 70 days that had elapsed since that race

SWISH

21/7 Lunar Leo 2nd 87 in 29B 7F
27/7 Lunar Leo 25th no TS in 87B 7F
2/8 Lunar Leo 11th 72 in 58B 8F

30/8 Todays race 12.6B 7F

So is this what trainers do? Stretch the animal then quickly return and drop it in class?

Is this the secret? because as far as I can see this was a very difficult race to sort out but Luna Leo on the above info was of a completely different quality.

All this VDW flannel and yet is it staring everyone in the face?

I bet someone will say thats not the full story (it keeps the myth alive)

Fulham

I see your point regarding Damalis and distance
I find it very hard to just bypass a horse because it hasn’t won/run over the current trip especially when they have run in a recent race in such a way as to suggest that the trip will suit.
I must have backed hundreds of winners over the years that have done just that (won over a new trip)
There again I go for the low class races and I can see the point in this case that class carries them through
How’s Yer Father won a 7f selling race at the age of 10 and had never won a race further than 6 in his life before
And as some trainers regulary say “well hes got a bit older now lost some of his speed and needs a bit futher” obviously this concerns the mostly the sprinters but not always

I wish you were correct
How easy it would be to throw out horses that hadnt won over the trip
Perhaps I am getting too cagey in my old age I seem to be frightened off by various things nowadays,when at one time I wouldnt have been

can this horse overcome a poor draw?

100/30 f in a class 174 LTO now reverted to a class 57 and 13/2.That has got to be value

and in form too look at that epsom run wow!

if its in front on the bend they wont catch this

Nessie,
If only it was always that easy. I think it was Mtoto, one of the posters on this thread who first showed swish how to equate speed figures with class, and he's still posting so unfortunately its not.
regards,

Just an observation from a different angle
Johnston’s 2 entries are very interesting
A 2 pronged attack with 2 types of horses one wants it soft bit like Obrien’s on the Derby
If it rains it would be no surprise to see DH take it he has a lot going for him having gone down on the Or’s
If the ground stays firm it will be interesting to see if DH is withdrawn or interesting to watch how hes ridden
And why is Darley on DH
The there is the lighly raced Supremacy hopelessly ouclassed Lto
But how good is he in this company and can he be Accurately assessed

Not a race for me Chaps but interesting

Barney

Thats a well timed topic

Fullham
look at SS first win this season
And he didnt even look like getting the trip re previous runs
And much to my horror went unbacked by me
I posted my anaysis to another member of this group on the day
The 3 probables were

SS
Undetererd (withdrawn)
Cubism

Top of consistency and ability but with a lack of ratings support and upped in class with an increase to its highest OR after showing a possible Beacon Light style downturn LTO. This could have been down to a lot of races in quick succession but is a worrying negative, together with Darley deserting in favour of the dropped in class Double Honour.
The other runners all have questions to answer but thats enough negatives to stop SV being a good thing.
regards,

Scott's View.

A couple of things come to mind with this horse. Is the profile rather similar to BL? Droped in class each time from a good/fair win 3 races ago. A hard campaign over the last few months, ok he has had 24 days off against BL's 14. Failed to deliver when 'expected' last time? An opponent well in form, all be it with a lower ability rating. Little or no value in his price. There is no way apart from physical violence you could get me to back this horse. If I where into laying horses this would be a prime candidate.

Any thoughts?

Boozer

Its never absolute - rather, a matter of probabilities.

How likely was it that a six year old, (and I think the age is highly relevant), all of whose successes have been over the minimum trip, would trouble the class/form horse, well clear on the ability rating and on my reading with better form, over the latter's ideal trip, bearing in mind that the trip was not just a furlong further than the six year old had previously won over, but two? (A sentence worthy of the great Bernard Levin himself.) The probability wasn't zero, but in my view yesterday it was pretty close to it.

Fullham

Yes you are correct ill concede on this one
with all the rushing about iv'e done this morning I failed to see the only wins over the minimum trip and asking for him to get 7f is pushing it to say the least

Statajack

Sandown 2:05 Naahy 25/8 63 in a 79C
Is best of the rest dropping in class today.

e/w seems fair game.

If your theory is correct then Counsels Opinion
3.45. Sandown should be a good thing today?
Cheers

Johnd

Swish
Nice to see you posting again, I thought it was only me but i went over the last few pages to see were Guest names Lunar Leo but could only see him suggesting making a book at evens.

At times I feel that pages are missing, or i need to be a code braker to read this thread.

Guest

Scotts View, Well it's a bet for me today but with the doubts i won't be going larbge today

Titus

re-councils opinion
a bad one i think

Johnd

Yes but I would like to see a bit more of a 'numerical' picture. A very hard race to analyse. But then again if the theory is on the right lines not too hard after all. We'll know by 4pm.

I was just about to go to bed when I wrote that, not getting up.

You have a good day too!

Swish

Swish

Did you see my question?

Hello Mtoto
I agree with you about scott`s view, a couple of negatives about this horse to me are he was unable to carry a penalty last time inwhich he was odds on & Btn 5,lths and yet he has a higher mark to overcome today?? and poor value at that!!
The value horse today as got to be ROBE CHINOISE who can reverse the form with scott`s view under todays conditions.
Tony.

Yes, I have seen your question, (just now).

Indeed what you say is most of the answer.

As you are new to the board you will not have seen that I have gone over this subject many times.

THE KEY FACTOR WITHOUT ANY SHADOW OF A DOUBT WHATSOEVER IS HOW FAST THE HORSE CAN RUN AND THE CLASS IT CAN DO IT IN.

All the rest of the info is secondary, and , as you say, lots of it is just waffle,
Yours
Swish