if you look back you will find that both myself and fulham discussed tikram at length, because I didnt decide to back it doesnt mean i didnt see it before hand. similar with ei,ei and will be with latalomne, even though a very good bet.

All three, in my opinion only have half of what i'm looking for.

it takes time and ross moff have both

and I will be backing them

Cheltenham 2.55

Taking them in ability order first, Djeddah is far from a form horse in this race and can be discarded.

Next comes Good Shuil who was raised in class last time at Cheltenham with a featherweight and showed improvement. However, this is handicap form and today it carries 21lb more than last time and has not shown form recently in a handicap with this sort of weight. Not a form horse VDWs way.

Ballinclay King is not currently in form, but Horus is in form and has won on the course and the trip. Since going to mr Pipe senior, he has won a class 104 handicap with 11-10 and more recently a class 203 hcp at newbury over shorter with 10-8. He is now going up in class with 10lb more, though 6lb less than Stratford. He is the class/form horse in the race, but there are already warning lights flashing regards weight.

Ross Moff has only run once in the last year when making a good comeback with topweight in a handicap class 79 over 2m 1f at Fairyhouse against good opposition. He fell at the last and would have shown form in any event. He is up in race class today, but carries 15lb less and has form at this sort of trip in the past. He is 2nd on class/form joint with Rith Dubh, who has won in this race class at this course, but is making it's seasonal debut. RD does have less weight than usual though.

So in conclusion, I see the race as a conflict, though if the prices allowed a book could be made with Horus,Ross Moff and Rith Dubh. That looks unlikely though so it is a race I'll probably be only watching.

Chelt 2.20

Again in ability order, Docklands Limo and His Song are both not form horses in this race.

Perkys Pride was fav at Newbury last time in lower class, but did not show much and previous Irish efforts were nothing to get too excited about. This is not a form horse either.

Latalomne was put back over hurdles last time in a much better race than this and he ran ok off a featherweight. However this horse has won only one handicap over jumps and that was a chase with 10-11, lower race class than today. I don't see him as a form horse with this approach.

Telimar Prince has won it's last 2 starts, the latter being a handicap at Newbury with 11-11. The form itself isn't very exciting, though he has beaten horses rated better than him at the time. He is up in class and back in trip today with 2lbs less to carry.

Sullys Hope is joint rated on ability, but despite running a close 3rd last time and with 3lb less to carry today, it doesn't come out as a form horse given the strength of the form last time. There are elements from VDWs handicap hurdles method that do go it's way though, but not throughout the process of that method.

So the class/form horse is Telimar Prince, but it isn't enough for me to select it as a good thing. For info, VDWs handicap hurdle only method shortlists Sullys Hope and Rainbows Aglitter, but neither fulfill all or most of the requirements as I see them, but they do serve to temper enthusiasim regarding the class/form horse.

In the Chelt 12.35 everything is much more straightforward with top rated It Takes Time the clear class/form horse. He has class,consistency and the best form. He loves Cheltenham and won on this day last year in a good handicap hurdle. He only has to jump to collect this and in my view is a good bet at better than 4/6.

The 2 shortest forecast favs at the 2 main meetings are Rhinestone Cowboy and It Takes Time. Both are the class/form horses and fulfill all the requirements, but obviously it is unlikely to be possible to get a workable price about RC.

The cross country race involves 5 who ran in the equivalent race at the last meeting. The Quads bounced back to form there and comes out as the class/form horse, but the others were all close up and it would be no surprise to see Lucky Clover,Eoins Pride or Trinitro reverse the placings. A race to leave alone in my view.

At Doncaster the 1.55 now has little worthwile form to evaluate and is a race left well alone.

At Wolverhampton, a different method shows Barkby in the 2.45 as a good thing and along with It Takes Time these two will be my only bets today.

VDW often said that to go outside the first Five or six in the betting,Was putting the odds against you.Unless of course a consistent from outside this area shows up,then you have to evaluate the form to see if it's out of it's depth,EI EI most certainly wasn't out of it's depth relative to the rest of the field,and was consistent in the context of yesterday's race.Consistent form combined with ability in better class races is a force to be reckoned with.

Thanks for the replies. I've got some things to do, I'll try to reply tomorrow.

Not a memorable day or week on the betting front for me, though Saturday may still prove fruitful.

Interesting to note how the class/form horses I named fared today at Cheltenham. 3 winners and 2 narrow 2nds, but I was on one of those that got away. That's racing though.

As regards the selection so far from John D, already we differ over who was the class/form horse in the race. Can I ask JohnD to offer at least some info on how he came to by pass Horus using VDWs approach?

Well at least Guest and Barney have put some up,I think it will help to put all the hours of discussion into perspective,it has at least demonstrated that the VDW system/method cannot walk on water and the 80% s/r seems unlikely unless you're dutching.
What I am still disappointed with is the price of the selections,I did expect,after all the work on here,that the horses would be a little less obvious to everyone else,or at least with the VDW angle that these short priced favs would be nailed on.
Q.

Guest,

Before I go any further I would like to say I am in no way trying to put you down. I'm just trying to understand how you work, and why. If it comes across as anything else I would like to apologise. You are confident you have found the answers. I am just as sure. The only way to understand each other is to ask questions, if we just agree we will never get any further. Plus having Barney in your corner I don't think you need anymore help. He seems to think you are the second coming!

'A bit like Jesus on the cross " forgive them for they know not what they do"'

My c/form horses also had a good day, although the only one we agreed on was Horus (that you mentioned by name) Like you I didn't back him, but still managed to have a good day. Maybe I should have, as once again we agreed on something, and that seems to be a rarity

In parting, has it ever crossed your mind there may be a second message in the VDW writings. As you say tomorrow is another day.

Investor.

I'm not to worried about the second picture, as the bets will always come if you wait. I still don't know exactly what you mean by the second picture, if you could explain then I could give an opinion.

Be Lucky.

Mtoto - As you probably know by now, it takes a lot for me to take offence so have no worries on that score.

Can I ask then,Mtoto, do you see my reasoning for making Horus the class/form horse and not Good Shuil?

The main mistake made by most giving VDWs methods a go, is that a horse such as Good Shuil appears to be a form horse and throws a spanner in the works.

If you look at the examples given in Spells It All Out, the form horse with the highest ability rating was the class/form horse in each race. The only race VDW did not go into any detail on was the one involving Wild Gamble. In that race there was a pitfall in the shape of a 66/1 winner LTO. VDW avoided discussion on this race, I believe, because it would have involved pointing out some of his secrets regarding form establishment. Note he also did this with Ekbalco and Justafancy in the same article, both of which took some explaining.

What then is the other message you suggest I may be missing?

My apologies if you felt that I misrepresented you on the consistency question. I'm too drunk to expand on the theme at the moment.
Quinelle
Sometimes your humour is too deep for me, I took Scott and all that. Who's Oats was my problem.

I always felt a familiarity about the term VDW, of course I saw it many times on headstones in graveyards across the country, 'very dear wife'. Fulham, with all your clinical experience you perhaps won't be shy in conjecture. After all it's traumatic to split after 20 odd years.

Epiglotis

I'm a natural conjecturalist, but even better at free association!

Art object dog

1.35 Doncaster

Skillwise

7 runs showing nothing then pops up at 20/1.

Now another 7 runs showing nothing and back to the same winning mark over the same course, distance and going with the same jockey booked.

And will most probably be a double figure price

Today in the cheltenham 2.55 the early numerical picture as i understand it lol, left me with horus & rith dubh no other horse was to be considered they were the only 2 horses that featured in the first 4 ability & first 3 cons, or if you were to go by the pegwell bay example the top 3 on ability & top 3 on consistency why did he change it for that race? he also said he had the best form what did he mean by that?, and may i also ask if f.chesters "laying it on the line" letter refers to the basic b/f/c method i.e. adding up the consistency figures within the first five or six in the f/cast using the percentages vdw related to & only using the races that those % added up to 85%+? then subjecting those same horses to the 2 ratings mentioned in the desert orchid example that of marking the card, namely "apply tests of speed & recentness of form" to isolate the real contenders?.

Walter,
Youv'e called the numerical picure right.
regards,

Please forgive me, i am rather under the weather vladimir came visiting tonight i forgot to ask another question that has been niggling a little in the view of some recent posts what is it with the ability rating ? i count at least 3 prominent posters who have hinted in one form or another that there is more to it than meets the eye, if that is the case then could it be possible that the same could be said for the consistency rating? thinking along the lines of the gaye chance example?, after all if they are placed "out of it" in class then it follows the consistency would suffer also, am i on the right track anyone? lots of questions that have no right to be answered i know but what the hell there`s only so many people on here now so what`s the harm in it? good luck for tomorrow & goodnight.

The following is a list of the class/form horses from the better races at Cheltenham,Haydock,Doncaster,Fairyhouse and Fakenham on Saturday. I'm not going to comment on them except the odd point, but I will post before racing tomorrow exactly the ones I think are worth backing from the list.

Cheltenham

3.05 Hors La Loi III is the class/form horse with Rooster Booster 2nd c/f.
2.30 Cyfor Malta is the class/form horse.
12.15 In Contrast is the class/form horse.
12.50 Demasta is the class/form horse.
3.40 Ad Hoc is class/form but 2nd on c/f Lords Best has the best hurdles form so far.

Haydock

2.20 Kingsmark is the class/form horse.
1.50 Ballylusky is the class/form horse.
2.55 Vol Solitaire is the class/form horse.

Doncaster

2.45 Korakor is the class/form horse.
1.35 Samuel Wilderspin is the class/form horse.

Fairyhouse

1.00 Be My Belle is the class/form horse.
1.30 Canary Wharf is the class/form horse.

Fakenham
12.35 Easton Gale is the class/form horse.

Blimey Mtoto, how much louder do you need Guest to spell out the bit you are missing? With regard to your other confusion concerning horses out of form I herewith append a list of valid excuses for a horse being beaten, generally speaking if it doesn't enter into one of the following it can be ruled out:

1. Run a horse so that it is out of its depth, i.e much higher class.

2. Make a horse carry large weights in lower class, or same class as last race.

3. Run horse over an unsuitable trip or unsuitable ground.

4. Change horses riding tactics, e.g. hold up a natural front runner.

5. Run a horse on a track to which it is not suited.

6. Use hood or blinkers.

Thankyou statajack,
In relation to earlier remarks re- the ability & consistency ratings "things relative" have been mentioned in recent posts also, so it may be of interest to some members if we were to take a closer look, the oxford dictionary states that, relative = CONSIDERED IN RELATION OR PROPORTION TO SOMETHING ELSE.
When vdw gave examples of his consistency percentages he took time to highlight the extremes from one end of the scale to the other i.e 111 = 33%, 000 = 2% as he did when explaining the class issue i.e. a horse usually running in £1,800 two mile event is unlikely to feature in the result of a £25,000 three mile race against horses who have shown form at this level, so looking at the history of each horse relatively would it warrant grounds for approaching the cons/ab in a slightly different manner to that which was shown?.