I may not we well versed enouhg to comment on this,Having not looked at the horses you so often seem to disagree on,Vdw had a method specifically for Handicap hurdles,Where he quotes horses from 11/4 upto 14/1 Ei Ei could well have fell into this category,It's not all about one method as i'm sure you already know.

Guest,
I am sure many could have come to the same conclusions re your selections today,my assumption is gleaned from the prices.
I was however a little disappointed that the VDW approach which I thought may have given an edge to these easily selected horses was not apparent.
You have lost the battle against the book today,but hopefully not the war.
I am sure that even by posting your selections before the event,win or lose,you have gained respect from many members,including myself.
Q.

Q,

You are right with what you say in your post as a couple of the horses that Guest put up were well backed in the offices and on course.

Throughout the time that I’ve been on this board, and from what I’ve read from posts that were made before I joined, Guest has remained extremely consistent in his views and his manner. He has been taken to task many times by people that have no other intention than to cause trouble, and where others would most likely have lost their rag, he has remained, on the whole, extremely composed. I feel this say’s a lot about his temperament, and of course theirs.

Another point worth making is, it is my opinion that from a fair few that talk sense about racing on this message board I would put Guest up there amongst the most knowledgeable of them, and I doubt there are many who would disagree with that, whether VDW is their ‘cup of tea’ or not.

Like you say, the battle today, as far as strike rate, was lost for Guest, however I’m 100% confident that the war, as the past has shown, will be won.

Good post by the way.

it takes time

darapour

live the dream, looks like a pipe special 2 1/2 m then 2 1/2m then marks card then up in trip. won in this grade with less weight as well.

Mtoto - I was really commenting on the fact that you obviously do not put much faith in the ability rating as VDW gave it. I am aware that you are concerned that he gave it some time after his original articles, but he gave it much sooner than his speed/merit rating. It is the latter that I assume you are using combined with the class/distance it was achieved at.

I also use speed as a guide, but it isn't needed for the original consistency method he gave which includes those such as Love From Verona who had no figure.

It was of more consequence that PK only failed by 5 lengths to give 19lbs to Drumgora with that horse having shown it's form in a better class race than even the Erins. Sea Pigeon may have displayed a higher rating then those two horses, but he was rated below Beacon Light at the time and that is the real issue. Relativity, which I have constantly refered to, is vital in evaluations.

Picture Of "GUEST"





TC


"The Cat Who Walks Alone !!!"

The way you have handled the recent onslaught earns you even more respect.

Keep posting.

Cheers,

Do either of you think anything about TEREK 12.15 DONCASTER
or LATLOMNE 2.20 CHELTENHAM?
cHEERS
Swish

2.55 CHELT ROSS MOFF

SWISH
If Latalomne really is coming back, he will win this, a small saver on Spectrometer may cover.
Terek has an obvious chance, but not a race I would play in. Good luck with them both.

Top ability in the first 5 of the betting

Good Shuil 98
Horus 93
Rith Dubh 83
Ross Moff 82

Rather close which makes me fairly wary of this race.
Top 3 on consistency

Horus 5
Rith Dubh 7
Good Shuil 12
(Ross Moff is 4 if you ignore the F last time)

That basically still leaves a short list of 4. Ross Moff and Horus seem likely to be well covered in the betting. Good Shuil looks a decent price, but his jumping is not the greatest and may let him down when push comes to shove. As a value bet Rith Dubh probably makes most appeal, a very consistent performer as a novice last year. That being said the figures don't show anything clearly better than the rest, so it's an event I'll pass on.

Rob

well done with ei ei,didnt you pick tikram as well?
there are far too many people on here congratulating people for one or two short price winners,only two people say anything about andrew who has had two picks,7-1w,10-1w?

Well said. Interestingly nobody is engaging Andrew in discussion about his selections, just sticking in their own oar as usual. This thread is a mutual admiration club with very few contributors addressing any of the issues for which the thread was started.

Swish

2.20 Cheltenham

Latalomne fits a type of horse I look for in hurdle races and I think he is worth a bet today.

The 1st two in the market have their ability ratings boosted by good flat form, with Samsaam not having done a lot over hurdles yet and Spectrometer going up the weights for his run of second placings - in short I think with the double figure price of Latalomne they are worth
taking on

1.10 Cheltenham

Darapour

I have supported this horse on both its runs this season on the back of what I think is good form from Cheltenham just over a year ago. If the Pipe horse is made favourite and Darapour drifts I will back it again - Barney has a point with his comments about Pipe though and I may still leave the race alone.

its you sticking your oar in , I expect most on here can see why they were selected.

If you cant, you ask him.

Instead of directing traffic.

Johnd

May we take it that Ross Moff is the first of the five selections you've said you would post before running?

Epi

The results from Andrew's selections speak for themselves. His contributions are welcomed and selections such as Ei Ei, one that I missed unfortunately, are real corkers. I form opinions of my own about races, which may differ from others. If that's 'sticking my oar in' well I'm afraid to tell you I shall continue.

Andrew

I must admit I had looked at Latalomne following your recent successes. You seem to have hit on a lucrative pattern, and this one seems to fit it to a T. He did drop out rather quickly last time, but that was a much tougher event than this. He's a proven winner and his general level of form looks best here. He rates high on Ability and miles clear on Recent Class. I notice the Racing Post Spotlight says 'more needed now' which I think is wrong but might help the price! If the forecast 12/1 is available it's a corking price.

I'm not quite so sure about Darapour. It seems a fairly tight race between a few. Those with the class don't show well on consistency and those with the consistency don't show well on class!

Rob

That's not what I meant and of course I expect people to have and express there own opinions. I refer to the posts suggesting there was something obvious to the poster about Ei Ei. Specifically a post by Investor.
Barney, it's not a great deal of use seeing why it was selected if you cant select it yourself. I wasn't interested in either of the races Andrew selected the winners in so I dont care how he found 'em. Finally sure as **** nobody will be directed by me and I dont want 'em to be.

quote:

---

Originally posted by epiglotis:
it's not a great deal of use seeing why it was selected if you cant select it yourself.

---

That's not true! If you can see why a horse was selected then even if you haven't selected this one for yourself you may learn something for the future. I learn from my own successes and my own mistakes, I'm also interested in how others operate as I might learn something from them.

Rob

Thank you for taking me to task over my cavalier approach to posting. I again agree with what you say. I will admit that you have also described behaviour of my own. My defense is that the remark that you quoted wasn't a general one, it was directed at Barney.