Guest,

Don't know if it is me being a little dim, I don't quite understand the question. I will answer as I understand it, if it is the wrong question sorry.

I think VDW DID use the same method for both races. I just don't think he used the ability rating you use.

Why would he be analysing a £600, he said keep to the better races?

Why would 8 weeks, or any other amount of time make a difference? The ratings would still be the same. The only difference I can see, BL would have more time to get over his hard race. That would not make him a better horse on the ratings, he would still not be good enough to win the race. Or are you suggesting he bounced after running his best ever race?

TC,

Sorry, but if he was dutching with these examples, and didn't mention the other horse in detail. I would have to consider him to be a fraud. I except he did mention the principal of backing more than one horse in a race as expectable. To do it, and not mention the other horse would not be on.

The reluctance to back more than one horse in a race is the weakness in my strategy, and I am working on it.

Fulham,

I can see your point. I do feel the 80% attracts a lot of people looking for easy money, when they fail it is the method that failed. not them.

Be Lucky

would beacon light have been a bet for you going into the race against sea pigeon?

He looked a good thing to me.

Mtoto - VDW did use his ability rating, as he demonstrated, so why is that an issue?

Sure, he probably would have not have been interested in the class 6 race at Leopardstown at the time for betting purposes, but what was he supposed to do about it when it appeared in PKs form for the Erins? Ignore it?

Also, how would he then investigate the worth of the form? Use some totally different approach?

This is what I mean by simple and logical. The tricky part is weighing up the form variables which does take some knowing. Mistakes still happen along the way, but only through experience do they get slowly ironed out.

Lay offs after a below form effort are very significant, as I have said many times before, especially if the horse was highly fancied in the markets. If this had been the case with Beacon Light then, whilst not changing PKs chance, it would have placed BL as a dangerous opponent.

On Thursday there are several horses that show up as good things.

At Ludlow in the 1.40 Putsometnby is the class/form horse, consistent, well weighted and with the best form on offer. Goes ok fresh and has a significant jockey booking that signals he is fit and fancied to boot.

In the 3.15 Cape Stormer is the class/form horse and again has everything go it's way relative to the field.

At Taunton in the 1.30 there is a false forecast favourite and the form is in lower class, over shorter and at a big price. Another General shows up as the true class/form horse and chasing has been on the agenda after a light but productive novice hurdle campaign.

Several methods including the 2 shortest fc favs and the chase method back up these selections.

Barney,

I usually find it pays to keep an eye on the ante post market for the Triumph in the early part of the season. It can give a good indication of how some trainers view their unexposed horses. Even 5 or 6 weeks ago then Old California was favourite or 2nd favourite in most lists. Naturally, I then looked to see who was currently training as it obviously wasn't Mr Dunlop.

Cheers

Time is very valuable at the moment & hand on heart the 3 races guest has posted up were races that were looked at later this evening, my findings coincided with his own almost to the letter concerning the 3 races , i like cape stormer who was up against it lto, the false fav mentioned does indeed have its work cut out & the probable winner in that race is well placed by the trainer on its chase debut.
The only reservation i have about the 3 horses named is jonjo`s horse im not too keen on these irish imports first time out for some reason he does have a lot going for him in relation to the rest of the field but we must take the distance, course & ability on trust, as you know the irish prizemoney is far superior to ours & what has he beat? & he has been driven out in his last few races, hope ludlow is similar to what he`s raced on previously, not quite good enough this one for me but you wouldn`t bet against him either would you?, a race to leave alone maybe good luck everyone

Guest,

It becomes an issue because YOU assume he used it. Nowhere is it mentioned, the only things that are mentioned are the betting forecast, consistency ratings, and the other ratings. You have shown the other ratings could not be conventional/commercial ratings, but they are what the whole analysis is based around. For PK to be joint on one and top on the other neither could be the ability rating later introduced.

Your other statement about rest doesn't hold to well with the other method of narrowing the field as shown in the Old Fellow race. By taking the 5 most recent runs it is obvious VDW places great store in the horse being race fit. As for PK's last run if you except it was a prep race for the Erin (I can see no reason not to) it was adequate. No more than that, and we don't know maybe HE lead over the last.

Barney.

You may never play golf for England, but you could stir for them no trouble. If you think Beacon Light was a good bet to beat Sea Pigeon. Could you explain why?

Be Lucky

Well done Guest, one winner from 4 selections, and at the very rewarding price of 30/100. You really have got this game on a piece of string haven't you?
Re your selections for today, 2 of them are likely winners, but they both have a slight question against them, so no bet.
Are you really sure you know what you are doing?

Mtoto - He did use ability ratings, why would he have dedicated so much explaination to them? The 2 sets of ratings he mentioned are so obviously the ones he later provided data for in the Little Owl article. The only mystery about those ratings are how he came to compile them.

The point you are missing is that use of the ability rating went beyond the blindingly obvious. VDW was, like any punter, constantly evaluating races. The only difference was that he was far more thorough than most and viewed things in an on going manner. Ask yourself this, why should evaluation of a past race prove any different to evaluation of a race about to be run?
As VDW said, when we have followed the method for some time, it is easy to turn back to our records which will help to balance performances. It's all there in that statement if you really think about how to use all the tools he showed us.

The point about in grained ideas concerning racing is rearing it's head in your replies, Mtoto, with all due respect. Your way shows Sea Pigeon as the one to beat Beacon Light at that time. But VDWs clearly shows that Beacon Light was the class/form horse that day and very likely one of those that got away for VDWs betting tank.

Do you not think, regardless of how things unfolded, that going down by 5 lengths to Drumgora giving an awful lot of weight away at Leopardstown, was not a good performance. Given that Drumgora had run well in the class 113 handicap at leopardstown previously,how many other races in the form for the Erins displayed the same level of competition?

Class and form measured VDWs way consistently throughout, not sparingly. It is that simple.

As regards your points on fitness, well all I can say is Pragmatic, Rifle Brigade, Hawaiin Sound, Vaigly Great, Ela Mana Nou, Inside Quarter,Lyphards Wish,etc,etc.

It is not me who picks and chooses the parts of VDWs selections and methods to use, it is clearly others. I have a logical and workable explaination for all of VDWs scenarios, but to explain them any further is just too much to impart. What I have said over the last year and especially lately is far more than others have dared say and a million times more use than that you will ever get John D to impart. Assuming he doesn't find yet something else new in another months time

JohnDs latest post demonstrates one of my points. He says only two are likely winners, but he can't even bring himself to name which two. How convenient.

Mtoto

I'm sure you are right about the goal of a strike rate of 80% attracting those who think it is easy money, but I guess few dwell long after reading the various articles. (And, of course, VDW did himself say that much hard work was required to make racing pay his way.)

It would be interesting - tho' impossible - to know how many have done what Guest has: equipped themselves with all the necessary sources, worked through the examples (numerous times in some cases, no doubt), and found a way of integrating all the findings into an approach (or series of approaches) into which each and every example fits. Not many, I'll be bound.

I am sorry that you take that view, it is not meant, on my part, to come across as such.

IF you look at the race using the methods that we know vdw used ie.

Consistency and ability and then apply the two methods of rating.

Then it is obvious that beacon light was a very good bet against sea pigeaon. Far stronger than Little Owl was. I expect if that race was run tommorrow then all on this board who look at things from VDW's angle would be lumping on big time.

From what has been told, I wish it had explained as clearly to me 12 months ago, it is becoming very obvious that you just cannot or will not accept VDW's method of assessing a horses previous form.

Look at beacon light in that race from VDW's point of view and you should come up with the same answer.

If you look at it from your point of view and come up with sea pigeon then you have a better method than VDW's, because you find his winners and the ones that beat his supposed winners.

Personally I dont know why you are tormenting yourself with it.

PS. Put some winners on here for all us good lads!

[This message was edited by Barney on December 12, 2002 at 11:53 AM.]

I find myself in that very position.I think i uncover something of value and then go back and start again, someone posts some thing that rings a bell and then I go back and start again, something else pops up then I have to start again.

I must be on my tenth restart so far, but I must say that my most recent discoveries have tied it in in a way that I know must fit them together. IT is very tempting, for me at any rate, to say oh yes that is it why bother, sell the books.

BUT I keep getting out my origional plan which was to look at the examples for five years and try to sort it all out.

THis brings me back on track pretty quick, one problem I am finding is that in a normal project one would have objectives that one would hope to achieve at given points in time.

From this perspective I do not know if I am on track after one year or not.

Guest/Barney.

Re Sea Pigeon/Beacon Light.

I know this is hypothetical (on both our parts) I can see no way VDW would have backed BL in the Sandown race. At best he would have said no bet conflict.

Guest,

You seem to think I have made up an ability rating off my own bat. I haven't, I have used an idea suggested by VDW himself. I have never deviated from that idea, I have used it to asses the Erin, and the Sandown race. I have also used it when assessing the old examples using his method of judging the class of the race (prize money) It also involves keeping records. I have to say it has found 20 + of the winners of his examples. It also takes away a lot of the personal decisions about is the horse in form, right distance, etc. Someone once asked why I give VDW the credit for finding my winners. I have to, I would never have thought of it by myself. It is simple, and straight forward, but I haven't closed my mind and said that's that then. I want to engage in dialogue with other people who have a view on VDW, and his other methods. I do however feel many are rolling the methods together, and although the basics maybe/are the same, it doesn't work. Because of this they then have to find reasons why one horse qualifies when it failed to do so under a different method. This brings about the inconsistencies in the race evaluations.

You ask wasn't I impressed with PK's running against Drumgora. The short answer to that is I don't know how Drumgora ran in the big race. If he was ridden for the place money, was it really such a good run? I think the connections would have been happier with the placing against Troyswood giving him 5lbs. That gave them a good line on Monksfield the class horse in the Erin

Barney.

You have the form books, it shouldn't take you long to organise a good logical case for Beacon Light. Although I do have the advantage of watching the 78 Champion Hurdle live from the last fence. It was run in HEAVY going (like Sandown). Bl was out on his feet, and Sea Pigeon was challenging and still in with a chance.

Be Lucky

Barney

I sympathise with your dilemma, it is one I face every day in my professional work, as well as when exploring VDW. With research in the true sense of the word, by definition one never knows what will result.

However, my experience of researching VDW is that there are regular "platforms" of discovery which, for me, have correlated with improved results year on year, and I hope that you find the same. If you do, at least it will provide tangible comfort even if neither of us is able to complete the journey.

I am confused,

sea pigeon was not in the champion hurdle.
when he met beacon light at sandown it was the oteley hurdle.

at the end of the day from VDW's point of view beacon light should have won that race, considering what sea pigeon had done, he did not. That coupled with another factor that went against him puts him well out of it.

Prominent king could not be expected to win his race and under the circumstances at the last, of which I have my own view but no facts, it was a good performance and given other factors he was a good bet, as was mr kildare.

I may be a little foolish, but I accept these reasons, as in other cases where there is more information and similar circumstaces it is proven to be the correct method.

Today in guest's first race I can find three good bet's but if one takes the next logical steps it can be isolated.

Well done with EI EI!
Swish

Very well done,The horse certainly looked good,In relation to the rest of the field,And what a price.

I wonder if vdw,Would have trapped this one with his handicap hurdle method,Quite possible i would say,

Statajack
Have a gander at this one.

Barney,

Sorry, my mistake it should read the 77 Champion Hurdle. It just goes to show, one can read something many times (as I did before I posted it). The eye sees what the brain thinks it says!

Wonder if one of the factors that was against Sea Pigeon has taken another dent today from Ei Ei? Is it another case of a criteria being credited to VDW to make his selections work?

Be Lucky

It depends how you view things I suppose and thats where the experience must come in.