sorry if you misunderstood me

that is a question I am answering myself not one that I was asking you.

I think hard grind is pretty much a prerequisit trying to get good at anything in life.

You are pretty hot on the Irish racing,a very high strike rate.I wonder is this because there is not so much racing,and one has to be more selective.
Mkuzi, what would you consider an acceptable price to wager on him?

I hope a few of you backed those two horses.

Hi all,

Thanks to those who made comment on the class/form horse situation.

I’ve been looking again at Desert Hero and also thinking about it in the light of some comments that Statajack had made previously.

My form book only lists 11 of the 16 runners in the Imperial Cup but I calculated the ability ratings for the 11 anyway. I was surprised to find that Desert Hero came out joint bottom of the 11 horses listed. I got his ability rating to be 11, could anyone who has done their own research confirm that? Now rightly or wrongly I had come to the conclusion through reading this thread that we were looking for horses in form with high ability ratings relative to the opposition. That wasn’t the case ,on ability rating, as far as I can see with Desert Hero and yet he was still the class form horse.

I also spotted a couple of similarities with Prominent King and some of the other pre-ability rating examples. I presume therefore that they were class/form horses too. Barney said that the most likely winner and the class/form horse were the same thing. Which would bring me back to Statajacks point. Just how did G.Hall manage to find those good things without the ability rating?

Over a 3 week period in July and August I tried to put into practice what I thought Guest and Chaz had been saying about how we should operate. Now it is certainly possible that I completely misunderstood or only partly understood what they were hinting at but for me it was less than successful. I spent 5/6 hours a day (and I felt I was cutting corners then) to end up with a load of data that I didn’t know how to use to best effect. O.K. the last part was down to inexperience,but in the early days VDW said that he put forward what he considered an elementary procedure. This didn’t feel like an elementary procedure to me, more like tiptoeing on a knife edge where things could very easily go horribly wrong.

I still think the ability rating is an important part in the machine but I may have been guilty of giving it too much importance and ignoring other factors.

So partly because I didn’t feel comfortable working that way and partly because of time constraints which mean I couldn’t operate it on a daily basis anyway ,I am going back to my basic way of looking at things for next flat season I think. I’ll also try and do some more research into what G.Hall thought The Key was.

I’ve got a lot of respect for the posters on here who have been trying to help.Both for the time and effort they put in on the board and also for the lengths they have gone to in their research. One thing that stands out though is the variation in peoples approaches and yet although they often view things differently, many are finding success.A version of VDW that you feel comfortable with could be more use than trying to clone someone elses methods exactly

By the way,using my basic methods relating to VDW today I couldn’t single anything out for a bet today.

Cheers everyone.

Hi Pipedreamer,

Impressive stuff. Well done.To be honest Irish racing is not something I'd considered betting on before.

You've obviously got knowledge of the courses there.Is there any particular benefit betting on Irish racing for a punter based in England do you think?

if you are interested in a similar type look at johnd's horse for ayr.

unfortunately it lacked the very factors that pk and desert hero have but its still worth a look.
and also which conquistador had and also dancing phantom to one extent.Collier hill lacked this as did johnd's. thats why from a vdw point of view it wasnt a bet.

Well done with Collier Hill today. Certainly an improving horse.

For the record I had a bad day, ie -

Hirapour - a big mistake.

Unshakable - I agree that the trainer of this one is very clever. I lost on this one today but the stable`s Antonioa Canova will put matters straight before the season`s out.

Far Lane / Jabaar - 9/1 taken on both.

Caprichio / Royal Millenium / H. Floyd - if The Tatling had won I`d have been rather frustrated.

Cheers,

I`m unable to give as much time as I`d like to this game.

Time (hard work) has to be a very important factor.

With regards understanding VDW, I`m still not out of the stalls myself.

Barney, I believe has given himself 5 years to bottom this methodology.

As for me, well I just don`t know what the future holds.

Good luck with wish ever way you decide go,

Cheers,

The Silver Lining,

Thanks for your comments.

I`ve been lucky enough to get sight of a copy of the book thanks to a very king fellow poster so I`ll be reading it with interest.

Cheers,

Bream

I can confirm that, at the time of the Imperial Cup, Desert Hero's ability rating was 11.

I think there is something "funny" with DH and the fact that VDW referred to him as the class/form horse, and I suspect its to do with his use of a different method than the first six in the betting forecast for identifying an initial short list. I'll be checking this out when I next get access to the Sporting Chronicle for the race, and hope more fully to understand the situation. If I do, I'll post what I find.

There is perhaps something to be said for ignoring DH for the present, and instead focusing on the other twenty horses that VDW explicitly stated were class/form horses. The three articles of 26/1/85, 13/4/85 and 18/1/86 in the "Ultimate Wheil of Fortune" are, to my mind, among VDW's most informative.

Judging by the horses you have put up this week you must be having a pretty bad run.

As Mtoto says "keep smiling" as I`m sure your next winners are just around the corner.

Cheers,

Pipedreamer

Well done with your 2
I have only just seen them, Seems your pretty hot in Ireland too.
"disapointed if they dont both win"
Confidence eh

well done today.
new design is one for the notebook.

Determined/Mtoto - Not a great week, but a lot has been my own fault (again today Bishops Court up in class and shorter price, they don't win do they?). I didn't even bother trying to get a price about Mkuzi.

Anyone notice the trait in Bustans race which was mentioned this morning concerning the 7f race at Newbury on Friday ?

Court Of Appeal looked sure to win but much like Sisal, he was collared close home. On another week this method provides some decent priced winners, Go Tech was a qualifier yesterday but I let it run.

Fulham - Bear in mind that in handicaps, VDW was ruthless with his definition of a form horse. It took some time to figure this out, but it was only possible through such selections as Desert Hero, Battlement,Kings Ride and Love From Verona.
They don't have to be overall top rated, but top of the form horses.

Whilst I'll be back next week as usual, a week like this one is worth ending with a long term good thing expected in the Arc. High Chapparal looks a racing certainty to me.

I`ve just noticed your comments on Lady Bear.

A big pat on the back to you. She showed a decent turn of speed and given the fact that she has already won over Doncaster`s straight mile it was a hell of a pointer to next years Lincoln.

That said, 2 others from this race in my opinion are already been lined up for the said race.

Cheers,

Guest

Thanks for the hint. I'll give it close attention.

Thanks for allthe positive comments.They are appreciated.
Bream I think as I mentioned to Guest,perhaps because the quantity of racing is not as great as in UK,that one is more selective.After all a 3/1 winner in Down Royal pays the same as one in Ascot.Also because there are not as many opportunities to place horses,by watching what the trainer does,is significant.Paddock values are always a consideration,and it is interesting to note how many fillies/mares,are produced to win on the flat and over jumps,often in a very short space of time.Many of these just happen to be in foal as well.

Max,I agree New Design,has marked her card.

Guest,as regards the draw,at Down Royal yesterday,the two selections I gave were drawn 1,& 2,in their respective races.Racing Post comments on same,HIGH definite advantage over 7f when 12+ runners.Well it certainly laid that ghost to rest.

He was a good thing last week he doesnt look so this tomorrow

I`m presently trying to raise £2500 for charity.

Sounds as though I could make plenty of money backing High Chapparal in the Arc.

It doesn`t look the strongest Arc however why are you so confident HC has the measure of Sulamani ?

Cheers,

The Coolmore boys seemed to have learnt that to win an Arc your horse needs to be fresh.

HC Irish Derby win on the face of it didn`t look as good as his Epsom win.

His Epsom win does however look a better performance than Sulamani`s French win.

That said, Sulamani would appear to have the better turn of speed.

Cheers,

Both HC and `S` have a consistency rating of 3.

Bare ability ratings put HC well in front, ie - 2402 v. 1091

HC has the highest class winning rating.

HC without doubt has the best form of the 2.

** backing both will guarantee the winner and is therefore like finding money in the street **

No need to back the 2 however as HC looks that winner in the race.

Isn`t it easy !

I wish,

Cheers,