Bream

Further to my 9.40pm post on 21 September, I've now had the chance of checking the Sporting Chronicle for the day in question, and can confirm that what VDW said in his article of 18/1/1986 is correct, insofar as DH was one of the three most popular selections.

Going down that route, one would in fact have been looking at five horses, as follows:

The Thatcher - selected by four tipsters
Pearlstone - selected by three
Cocaine, Desert Hero and King's Parade - each selected by two

Interestingly, of the five, only three would figure if one started with the first six and equals in the forecast, whether one chose the Life or the Chronicle:

Both papers gave the same forecast first and second favs. - King's Parade and Patrick's Fair, and had two others, Claude Monet and Pearlstone in common. But the Chronicle had Carved Opal and Cocaine, while the Life had Prince Bless, The Thatcher and Great Light.

Now all we have to do is understand how VDW by-passed horses with much higher ability ratings than Desert Hero, and seemingly "in form", such as Pearlstone, to make DH the class/form horse. Hopefully Guest's recent post on this matter will help us.

Happy hunting.

Fulham,

Thanks very much for sharing the info on Desert Hero and for previously confirming his ability rating for me.Much appreciated,by me anyhow.

I'll have another look at the race again in the light of the horses that were tipped.

My own thoughts are this is just a variation on the first method put forward but substituting the selection box for the forecast.As Statajack has said,could G.hall have worked out the ability rating for himself? Obviously I don't know, but I am going to look at things in the future with less emphasis on the horses ability rating and see how that works out.

Will Vicious Warrior be likely to 'bounce' following its last success or win easily as the class/form horse in the race? chris (a beginner)

Vicious Warrior is unlikely to bounce and looks a good thing, as does Zingari in the previous race.
Short prices maybe, but almost certain winners both.

no good thing in my book.
needed all of 10f to get up at donny of all places so over the same at ponte will hardly be ideal.
i wish whittaker would put it over a mile and a half.

i would rather take ring of destiny or derwent.

Concubine - Goodwood 4.45

I'll take 10/1 on Concubine.

Well beaten 1.75l by Qazween in their last race in receipt of 11lbs then. Getting 20lbs tomorrow.

One downside is the draw

She may have been found out by the stiff finish at Leicester on her previous run, or maybe does not like r/h courses which could also be another factor against, but obviously handles tight undulating tracks OK.

Obviously Balakiref and Nivernais are other dangers, dropping in class, but Balakiref is returning to 7f, a trip he just doesn't seem to quite see out, and Nivernais is an unknown quantity with one run at 6f (kept on same pase from 2f out).

The rest seem to be out of form, and/or going up or down in trip.

Solomon's Mine in the 5-05 holds 4 engagements over the next few days
He runs here in an Apprentice Race.

Good Apprentice on so no worries there
Looks good to lead this lot a merry dance over this shorter trip
Would be happier if he had set a stronger pace in his previous 2 races over
further though
There again he was probably paced in those races to get the trip.
Was expecting around 3/1 but a look on Oddschecker sees him a best
priced 9/4
Thats Disappointing so wont bother with a bet unless I can get the 3/1

Kylkenny could be a danger based on his 2nd last run
Would have had a saver on him

P Cole sends Smoothie as his only runner at this meeting?
But as there are local meetings tomorrow could just be just a box filler
As hopefully the hills runner is.

Price not good enough to risk a bet

3-25
Vicious prince looks the part allright the stiff course should suit.
But Beat the Heat could go well here also
The result depends on whether it’s a dawdle then a sprint or a truly run race
Would think that Beat the Heat will set the pace and may hang on
Wouldn’t like to bet in this race at all

be careful with polgase runners on turf this season-1/31 3yo-3 from 111 overall-fletcher did ride the three winners though-trainer had 2 sprint winners and 1 mile winner but from 24 attempts no winner 1m+-last 14 days ran 8 with 2 placed on the a/w and 6 running down the field on turf-trainers course record very bad.

i like kylkenny and maybe smoothie though.

good luck.

quote:

---

Originally posted by max:
no good thing in my book.
needed all of 10f to get up at donny of all places so over the same at ponte will hardly be ideal.
i wish whittaker would put it over a mile and a half.

i would rather take ring of destiny or derwent.

---

You were spot on with that one Max

Looked Like kylkenny was going to win it till the Barry Hills Box Filler came with a wet sail
Bah

Hello there,There's no point p.....g about with ifs and maybe,s,what your looking for is a winner in a race,There was only one horse today (from my point of view) that fitted that category,And that was Firebreaker,Let's all get our heads together and talk about these selections,It seems that guest/barney/determined have Had enough,If your going to back these selections then there must be good logig behind them,Otherwise you might aswell chuck your hard earned down the bog.

according to your earlier post on the other thread"you came back from the pub and your horse lost"so whats all this about firebreaker and which horse did you back that lost.

Investor

Naming selections after the race
Anybody can do

The true test is before the race, and in my opinion 5/4 fav’s are no good to man nor beast even if you get an 80% strike rate.

You would be better off leaving your Bank in the bank where it would earn a safe 4.4% interest with no risk.
As for logic
I wouldn’t put up anything on here before the race even if they were only half chances that didn’t contain some sort of LOGIC
It’s a pity that there isnt much left of the flat racing season to prove the point

it amazes me How some people wobble after a few losing selections

They I would say have no business backing horses with a view to making a living out of the game

They should accept the fact that fun betting is their Level and is as far as they will get

If you read what i replied to pipedreamer again,I was merely stating the fact that firebreaker had every right to win in that company,And in my opinion it was the only horse that came near a vdw bet today,I never said i backed it did i,As iv,e said before i,m not strictly vdw,So the lose
r is immaterial to this thread.

Boozer
What do you mean about going all wobbly,If you think your'e going to find 5 6 7/1 winners everyday you better think again my friend.

Max

It's not what you tell em
But what you dont tell em that matters

Investor

The wobbly wasnt specificly aimed at you
As for 7/1 winners
You are damned right they arent there every day

And I arent pure VDW either
But as he said there are other ways to reach the same conclusion Or
More ways to skin a cat

Well done max hope you got 9/2 for Derwent.

Investor - it's Firebreak not Firebreaker

Chris

boozer

I always knew you were swish. LOL

Barney

No I arent swish

But I would agree with some of his Common sense comments in previous posts

Boozer,
I would be very happy with a 80% strike rate
and a average price of 5/4.
This would be a 80% lsp .If you can find one
selection a day like this you are on to a winner.
many pro`s work to a much smaller advantage.
2-10 % is common.if i had a 80% advantage and
enough selections a year i wouldn`t be working
for a living i`d be punting for a living.