cant stand golf barney
Its a big deviation from horeseracing Action wise
Albatross
Birdies
Its a par 4
All that for knocking a ball in a bloody hole
Does it have a draw bios?

Fancy a chat
Usual method
10 mins?

Swish - The "other" method as always with VDW has it's roots in class and form. I think my views on the draw have been taken a bit too literally. Obviously at some courses, if you are a handy horse it can be an advantage to be drawn in a certain position, but only if you have the class and form to win the day. It is no use starting out from the draw perspective because you are bound to become convinced that one of the "best drawn" horses will win. It is where the pace is that counts 9 times out of ten. Off the top of my head I can remember a sprint race at Chester earlier this year with a double figure sized field where the fav was drawn 2 but was beaten close home by a much higher drawn 2nd fav.

To be honest Swish, I don't understand how you have suddenly got it all sorted by only selecting parts of VDWs method and in such a short space of time, given that you started this thread with many questions only last year. I have studied VDW for quite a few years and it took a large percentage of them before I realised much of what I had been missing. Sure, I still make mistakes and some stupid ones at that as once agin with Binary File today. When this horse won last time I said there was no logical reason as to why it should have done. So why did I back it today in a better race at a much shorter price ?

Why did I let the real best bet on the card go unbacked at Ayr?

Where had Polish Flame been for half the season ?

What did Whittle Warrior actually beat last time ?

What was wrong with Zafeen ?

Why was Meshaheer odds on last time, but 5/1 today ?

All questions to ponder, but these and many more need answering before the race and this takes much time and effort. You have to be ever alert so as not to make mistakes or fall into the traps lying in wait.

Tommorrow looks a busy and interesting day and I have already sorted out quite a few races. I'll post up my findings around lunch time and get the show back on the road from my point of view.

Guest,

it seems to me you need to get hands on for a while instead of IT.

Barney.

I thought the remarks about being small minded and ignoring help, a bit rich coming from you. Again more digs about s/f, and any fool can do that. I will say this fool has missed all the losers over the last few days. This has been down to s/f (and the help of the 0R) These 2 bits of rubbish have saved me a lot of money, + helped me find the winner of my only bet so far this week

I have to agree with Fulham, Guest has gone a very long way in explaining how he finds the c/form horse. This does measure up with what has been written by VDW. I just think there are better ways to judge the class of the horse and race.

I do hope Guest's bad luck this week doesn't stop him trying to help. It is hard trying to post before the off, and mistakes can be made trying to meet the deadline. I hope for his sake he re checks for possible mistakes before he puts his money down.

Max, Greg, etc.

I also take very little notice of the draw, unless they race around a corner. I think a lot of words are written about this subject, by people that have to write something to get paid. When people like Dandy Nicholls asks about the pace in the race that says a lot more than a thousand words. Ok Beverly MAY have a draw bias, that doesn't bother me, as there are very few races I would want to back in there. Before I back a horse I will look to see now it runs it's races. A 'good' draw can be a hindrance to horses that come late. It's like everything in racing, there are no hard and fast rules. I do think it is very hard for a horse to win if it is drawn wide in a 10f race at York (2 bends and a dog leg) stops most.

Be Lucky

Swish,
Thanks for your response to my post.I don't know if my point of view has changed or there was always more common ground than I thought ,but lately I find myself more in tune with your posts.

Guest,
Could I ask you one question? A simple yes or no would serve as an answer.Do you think that the horses VDW mentioned as bets for him were the class/form horses in their races,irrespective of the method used to find them?

Cheers everyone.

I am sorry if I have upset you, for not going hook line and sinker for your past help.

but to be honest you knew i was new to vdw and you just gave me a list of horses with no whys or werefor's or hints even though i replied a number of times. If I remember correctly you just said "yeh thats about it" I didnt leave it there and carried on looking and trying to learn and at the time when I first found that SF were way out you were in some agreement with me in certain races. Over the last few months they have got significantly better, compared to how i am making my own, but in the last few weeks the anomalies are starting to appear again.

once again i will say that one day i hope to be as good as you are but in the same breath that from a viewpoint of trying to understand vdw SF and OR are not part of the picture.

I might be a fool but I dont think that I have fully understood VDW yet so I cannot truthfully say whether your way is better or not and I probably dont fully understand that either. What I can truthfully say is that I set myself a five year plan to get to grips with it and I am now nine months in and I am very pleased with my progress whether it looks shit to others or not.

I toyed with this phrase for a while

THE CLASS FORM HORSE IS THE ONE MOST LIKELY TO WIN

you can either

a) find the c/f horse
b) find the likely winner

either way you have the c/f horse and the winner

which is easiest?



VDW wrote that and all his selections won (one ex )therefore they are all the c/f horse.

There is so many people to answer to and so many notes to make I am glad i haven't got Broadband yet, gives me chance to go to bar and roll a smoke (only tobacco you understand!)

Barney
You are being cryptic again.
What method.
What thread?
Chat room often does not work I agree.
Yes I do my horse work through the night usually.

Guest
That was a good letter you have just written.
BUT although I agree class/form horses will generally prevail the draw often knocks into oblivion. I arent telling you again. And yes I REALLY have had massive tricasts and forecasts on draw alone. (You must realise I aren't making it up surely?)
I haven't 'suddenly learned VDW' as you put it.
These are the things that have happened:

1. I have had over 30 years of betting (with gaps, in particular when I got divorced around 7 years ago). If you ever looked at a novice Hurdle table I sent Gummy on his tables page you would understand a bit more about me and the work I have put into it.

2.I learned computing a couple 0f years ago.

3.I bought a computer and decided to investigate racing again after a long gap.

4.I found SYSTEMATIC BETTING in one of my boxes when I moved into my new flat. (Totally forgot I'd ever bought it!!!!!!!!!)

5.Re read it and used my new computing knowledge to put races on computer.

6. Got internet and found Gummy Racing

7.Posted my views on VDW

8.Mtoto sent me some races to look at and taught me some priceless advice. (Had to work hard though studying them)

9.Tested myself by naming 1,2,3 in every race on this board.

10.Got damn good results, especially first choice of the 2 or 3.

Put them all on spreadsheeets (actually endless task as it has to be constantly updated)

However learned enough to see how to win most weeks

9.Discovered VDW isnt the be all and end all

How is that for a comprehensive answer?

Regarding your questions about today's horses, I can only offer my opinion on 2.

ZAFEEN looked nailed BUT I personally think A races are the most difficult and (although I hear it was evens at one point)I,personally don't have a good enough strike rate on odds on shots.( I did pick OASIS DREAM today naively thinking it would be around the evens mark. It wasn't! It was 1-3!

MESHALEER I backed but only to very small stakes, because, again it was an A race.

The others I don't know about.

MTOTO
Gentleman, as ever, but may I say draw really is important some times,
Cheers
Swish

Bream

By no means all the horses VDW gave as examples were the class/form horses in their races, as Guest concurred recently when the example of Swiss Maid was discussed (Cistus being the c/f).

look at the 215a

class a listed race

three runners OR 16,25,29

day out or what?

I can see them now in the owners enclosure

Barney,

You seem to have missed the point of my message. It doesn't matter a jot to me you don't like/understand the way I work. It's the continual knocking of the basics of it, if you don't like it ignore it. To say s/f have nothing to do with VDW or his methods is more than a little naive. Even Guest uses them.

You said yesterday CRACKED IT, and presented the thread with the formula VDW gave years ago. Consistent form, etc. would it be possible to explain your interruption of what it means?

Guest,

It's not the fact that Meshaheer started odds on last time out. It's the importance you placed on it's defeat that surprises me. You, yourself have said many times about horses that a defeat stops the mug punters playing next time. Hope your luck turns around very quickly. I agree, it looks as if it could be a busy day. So I had better get on.

Be Lucky

Glad to hear of your 18/20 winning weeks Swish, long may it continue.

YEs it is possible for me to explain with a certain amount of clarity but likely NO.

there are far to many on this thread, in my opinion, who take, take, take and "i presume" use the answers gleaned in a substantive manner without application to the members of this thread.

Ask them.

IF you want to convince people as you keep banging on about how much better your way is than VDW's join in and give opinion there is every chance for a yeh or neh on an almost daily basis, surley that will do most to convert people, IF thats what your after.

I have shown how I interpret speed by examples not words and its just coincidence that there was an outbreak of racetimeitus and still is, but more important to me is what is the difference between 1 min at ascot and 1 min at epsom in terms of effort and ground covered about 35 lgths i think.

i have said this before as well

put some selections on here for all us good lads. LOL

I will be posting my selections and thoughts for today a bit later, but for now I just wanted to comment on some of the recent debate.

Anyone who decides to take up the VDW challenge initially believes it to be a simple and easy way to make racing pay mainly due to the way in which VDW put his ideas across. I think his one fault, and he admitted as much, was that after years of experience he assumed everyone saw form and class in much the same way as him. Of course this was not the case and very few if any discovered the full facts after his initial letters. After years of research I can confirm that it was all in there but just reading the letters and glancing at the form would not show the way.

One of the main problems in researching VDW is that when a new piece of the puzzle is discovered, it is very easy to switch too much emphasis to it and overlook the other pieces that are needed to show the full picture. A part fare won't take you all the way, and even today I still overlook the warning signs. Take yesterdays 7f race won by Meshaheer. Binary File was, VDWs way, not a good thing or even very possible winner before the event at York when winning at 11/2. So up a bit in race class at Newbury, dropped 2 furlongs in distance and very likely to start much shorter against a closely matched LTO listed winner and a LTO close odds on 3rd who has more class. The signs were flashing, but the mechanical part was used over zealously. My fault though, no one elses and certainly not the methods.

Ratings come in different forms and the means used to produce them have to be logical. They are only a guide though and must be used as such. Everything else has to confirm what the figures say as with Zafeen yesterday. The market factor was a slight concern given that he failed albeit narrowly at odds on FTO but then delivered next time. He was a bigger price in much higher class next time but clearly improved and, most important, was actually dropping in class yesterday against weaker opposition. The price shouldn't have made a difference. Compare in contrast with the same trainers Londonnetdotcom and comments I made at the time and it should be clear who was the better prospect.

Much consternation was caused regarding VDWs mystery rating methods. After my own research I was able to decipher that one was a weights based handicap rating based on the Haig/Superform ratings that VDW often mentioned. They were compiled in a different way though, but much like his merit/speed rating, he devised a new way to use them. On the flat he was using speed figures in a similiar way. His other rating can only be compared to Daily Mails formcast and perhaps it was used as base rating, we may never know. The thing to remember though is that the class/form elements have to support the ratings to show a good bet.

What I will endeavour to show later is my adaptation of the handicap and speed ratings along with some races looked at.

conquestadora looks a cut above these

Barney,

I agree with you that `C` has alot going for her today.

Her 2 runs this season look that much better than todays opposition.

Her last run was clearly a career best.

She`s consistent, well placed on the ability ratings, has run in better class, is improving, both Split Second and RHR lend support.

She had a choice of engagements today. Connections have chosen to send her all the way to Ayr (ground conditions more to her liking than Newbury).

The lenghty absence shouldn`t be a problem however

- she`s never carried this weight

- there are 4 unexposed horses in the field all open to improvement namely Perigeo, Collier Hill, Persian Lightning, Tees Components.

The amount of actual wgt` she has to give to 3 of those named leads me to the conclusion = no bet.

*** I`m very interested in how Tees Components runs today. We should all be keeping this in mind from now on. Today will not be the day though (in my opinion).

Cheers,

cant see past royal millenium class horse just waiting for a decent prize,of the dangers and there are many deceitful and marsad.

the 2.50 i like the look of lady bear and captain venti at bigger prices.i think true night to be a false favourite and expect it to be found out today and one with a better chance even with a big weight is the top one muchea.