arent you now!

Investor,

Don't understand your posting about p****g about. Gigondas asked a question about the only horse, that for me could be classified as a possible vdw selection today. There where 2 very good reply's from sensible punters highlighting the danger of backing this horse. What more do you want? I hope it was enough to put Gigondas off.

I can't see how Firebreak came anywhere near being a vdw selection. Could you explain which method? I know I work differently to most, but I couldn't make him a form horse let alone a c/form horse. The price was a joke. I agree with Boozer that the better prices don't come along every day, but all you have to do is WAIT. I think backing horses like this is like throwing money down the loo. It may take a bit longer to lose it, but lose it you will.

Be Lucky

Caught out again I see. How many times is that? Don't you realise that some people read more than one thread on this board? You post one thing on one thread and something else on another, I asked you before if there was two of you. I repeat, you don't have the intelligence to lie. Stick to the truth.

Maggsy

You have me there maggsy
I made a stupid statement off the top of my head
80% strike at 5/4 would do just dandy
one every day though is pushing it a bit and not realistic
As for the so called pro’s that work to 2%-10% that is more like what I was trying to get at
Turning over a hundred thousand to make 10,000 is horrific to me and hard work
Don’t think I’d stay the distance
When I look back on my betting accounts since 1991 I havent got less than 100% profit on turnover. Even on a piss poor flat racing season
Trouble is I don’t turn over enough money
Laugh at that statement if you want
But it is the truth
And I wouldn’t say anything like that If I couldn’t prove it in real time
Maybe next year
50 to 60 POINTS profit a year is realistic
In my view
But it’s a lot harder to get it backing 5/4 favs which is all I was trying to point out in my clumsy way

Good morning.What we are all looking for is a winner in the race,or a potential winner the company that firebreak had been running in relative to the rest of the field,Was far better you only have to look at it's last three runs to see that,been running in gp1 and gp2 company yesterday ran gp3 dropped from class 406 to 203 with improvement in s/f remember 3yo so speed comes into it,I don't really know what else i can say other than have a good look for yourself it's all there in black and white.

Cons Prompt Payment 4
Treble heights 5
Shalamantika 9

Ability Love Everlasting 119
Jalousie 78
shalamantika 48
Treble heights 48

Treble heights
Ran creditable 2nd over 14.5 furlongs gp 3 class 300 beating 3 others in the race quite convincingly.

Shalamantika
Hasn,t shown anything in this class not on (in my opinion)

Prompt Payment
Going up a long way in class,Ultra consistent but i think she'll struggle at this level.

Love Everlasting
finished 9th lto running over 14.5 on good,Today dropped back to 12 furlongs on g/f,Has already won twice at this level and today as very good claims relative to the rest of the field,There is obviously a danger in Treble heights.

conclusion Treble heights
Love everlasting
At 2/1 15/2 a decent profit can be made.

Barney/Chaz

Yes you are. No I arent !

lol

Oh yes I arent !

Ho Leng I am.

Chaz

Looks good if he behaves himself

I wish you well with ho leng..

Impressive Result

Well done

Well done.

Cheers,

I must disagree with tour statement that backing horses at the price firebreak was punters will lose, Well i,m affraid that an awful lot of bets struck using these methods are going to be at the shorter end of the market,Of course if all the methods are known then maybe it would be different,Guest proved that just recently when he experienced a really bad run,Even with all his knowledge mistakes are still made,Youv'e only got to look at the good things in august to realise you won't get many 6,7 or 8/1 jobbies unless you dutch.

Well done Investor,a nice touch.

Investor.

I think the main reason Guest was in trouble was because the prices of his winners were too short. Apart from the 7/1 winner at Doncaster. As I have said before strike rate is ego. I do agree that August is hard to find the better price winners, but I did manage 1 10/1 winner. I only work with the 2 main methods, but I have found more than a few 5/1 winners. Ok, they may not have returned at that price, but that is part of the job finding the better prices and getting them. There is no way on this earth I would put £200 on that horse to win £250.

Well done today.

Mtoto i have to agree with Invester that
Firebreak was a good price but only just.
i wouldn`t of taken less than 5/4.
According to the method i use which is
not VDW based it had a 48% chance of winning
according to my calculations.
i think value is in the eye of the beholder.
strike rate and odds are relative and it also
depends on turnover and how many value bets
you can find per day.

The point i was making was that firebreak was a good example of the type of horses we are looking for,I didn't say i backed the horse irrespective of wether it was value or not,It was still the best bet on the day using vdws methods,I sincerely hope we haven't heard the last of guest i wouldn't mind hearing his opinion on this one.Thanks for the pat on the back for the winner today,I'm personally annoyed with myself for bottling out of backing love everlasting as a single,All the signs were there.night night

This would appear to have been a quiet week as regard vdw selections.
I don't think I will put up a monthly list,as there doesn't appear to be any interest,therefore no point,

Sorry I didn't reply previously, but I think it is an excellent idea to post up pre-race selections. Hope you will have a re-think!

Saturday selections ( Using my interpretation of VDW methods).

2.00 ASC
Van Nistleroy

3.40 ASC
Demonstrate
Millenium Force

4.55 ASC
Lady Bear
Lady High Havens

1.50 HAYD
Baldour
Krugerand

BARNEY
Tomorow is SV's big day, and he's 13/2 with the nanny.

Good luck to all,
Johnd.