Further to your comments re first 5/6 in the forecast. The race touched upon earlier (2.55 N)proves an interesting case in point from this angle.

Would your evaluation of the race change markedly had Atavus been quoted in the first 6?

Cheers

Guest
If a proper draw study was to be done, I agree it would have to be looked at from all angles.

Crock
As with Fulham thanks for the effort.

I did draw study the long and hard way by going through years of formbooks. My info would probably be out of date now anyhow but please believe me that some tracks had such a draw 'sway' (even up to 2 miles) that it was almost pointless picking one drawn wrong no matter what its credentials. Some tracks like Newmarket (July) were constantly described as "draw no advantage" but in reality, especially middle distances, high numbers had won the vast majority of races for years
Cheers
Swish

nobody any views on a race?

OR shall we just wait for our leader?

Crock

Thanks for posting the NH figures, which are probably more relevant than the Flat data, given VDW's penchant for NH races.


Guest/Swish

I'd be happy to analyse the draw situation via RSB, but I'm afraid its beyond my competence with the software. I also strongly suspect that there may be more fundamental problems of the kind referred to be Crock.

I've read both Graham Wheldon and Dave Renham on the effects of the draw, and I have little doubt it is a major factor in a very small number of races, eg 5fs at Beverley. My working assumption is that, provided one bears these in mind, the draw can be ignored, for the reason Guest has given. And in this connection, I think the comment reportedly made by David Nicholls following the draw for tomorrow's Ayr Gold Cup is relevant. His four horses all having high draws, the Post (page 5( reports Nicholls as saying "I think I'm happy. I'd just like to know if there are any pace horses there".


Barney

My comment re c/fs in the 2.55 at Newbury was based solely on the guidance Guest gave in previous posts about the class/form horse. Only if he judged that, in the context of today's race, Binary File was not a form horse (a judgement I'd find as surprising as you would) could Suggestive be the c/f.

you say in general the draw can be ignored for the reasons guest gave but let me ask you this-would birjand have won from stall 2 instead of 22?.it seems a little churlish to pick on guests example given the fact it won but it was his post that started this debate.it has been said that as long as the horse has superior'firepower'for want of a better word it will win regardless but the in the case of birjand it hung on a neck from a fast finishing deceitful drawn 12.so the answer to my question is no birjand would not have won from a low draw and it is debatable whether it would even have won if it had swapped stalls with deceitful.

Crock

Sorry, I hadn't seen your post re Atavus when drafting my last one.

I'm in a difficulty with the question you pose, because although generally VDW's class/form horses came from the first five/six in the betting forecast, he gave one horse he specifically named as the c/f which didn't - at least in the Sporting Life's. That was Desert Hero, in relation to the 1983 Imperial Cup, (12/3/83). In the Life's forecast, Desert Hero was 13th, at 33/1.

However, there are two possible explanations. First, in another paper Desert Hero MIGHT have been in the first six (? improbable). Second, VDW gave DH as an example of a selection found in a different way, drawing on the selections box in the Chronicle, and for that method he might have defined the c/f differently, ie not as coming from the first five/six in the betting forecast, but from among those named in the selection box.

Anyway, despite the for me as yet unresolved Desert Hero example, I work on the basis that the c/f must come from the first five/six in the forecast, and in the 2.55 today that precludes Atavus (at least it does if like me you work from the Post). Had Atavus been among the first five then the question would be was he a form horse, which needs to be answered relative to today's race and competition. Let's assume he came in as forecast fifth favourite behind the Post's current first four. In my view, in that hypothetical circumstance Atavus would have been the c/f.

Needless to say, had those hypothetical circumstances applied, being c/f would not automatically have made Atavus the most probable winner, still less a bet, any more than being outside the first five (and equals) means he is precluded from being both of those today.


Barney

Its not a question of waiting for anyone. Its merely that some have different policies to others in the matter of pre-race posting on an essentially public board like this. I stated my policy unambiguously in a very early post, and see no reason to change it. Gratitude to Guest - which I have experienced more than once - can be expressed in more direct ways, like thanking him for help given.


Max.

Impossible to know for sure. From a different draw, and necessarily taking a different path, Birjand might not have hung. Who can say.

Re Rivage Bleu etc.
In EVERY case each of the horses had been placed in their ideal circumstances viz. C/D, going, stifness of track, etc.
Hope this helps

At Newbury the 3.25 has Zafeen as the class/form horse and whilst improving, there is one factor that stops me from backing it.

In the 2.55 Binary File is the class/form horse and will be taken.

In the 4.00 Dhabyan is class/form but again there are factors against.

The same method that gave Birjan/Sisal shows Kaparolo as a well placed horse in the last and he will be taken as a bet.

At Ayr there are 3 horses I consider should win namely Whittle Warrior, Go Tech and Polish Flame. Only the last horse will be backed though.

Just one horse to be backed at Down Royal in the 5.00 Give A Whistle.

So Binary File/Kaparolo/Polish Flame and Give A Whistle for me today.

Have a good day all.

there you have it, apparently I dont do it the same way as Guest.

I have double checked though and I still think suggestive is the c/f and will bury them.

I must be wandering down a slightly different path. IT will be even more intersting now though.

Hi Fulham,

Re Desert Hero, he was rated second in the race on the consistency rating behind Pearlstone. Of course Desert Hero came to his attention by a different approach to the forecast /consistency method of trapping the likely contenders,but VDW did state that it sometimes occurs that that a highly consistent horse doesn’t always figure in the forecast and that a check should always be made where this occurs. Presumably therefore even if Desert Hero hadn’t been amongst the 3 most tipped horses in the Sporting Chronicle he would have been flagged when VDW applied his crosscheck of the 3 most consistent from the entire field.

VDW also stated at one point that straying away from the principles starts to put the odds against you which may be why some people stick rigidly to the first 5/6 in the forecast. If you were putting thousands of pounds on a horse though, would you have complete faith in a forecast that could have been compiled by someone whos racing knowledge may be less than your own? You would probably want to run as many crosschecks as time would allow.

Having said that ,the similar method that he put up because the Sporting Chronicle was no longer available states quite categorically," wager only if the resultant selection is in the first two of the forecast". Then there is his mention of Little Nugget and Strombolus in relation to the first 6 in the forecast. Strombolus was only in the first 6 in one of the 3 papers mentioned and little Nugget didn’t appear at all in his paper. I haven’t looked at Little Nugget yet but I wonder if he mentioned it to show his adherance to the selection having to appear in the forecast? It can all get rather confusing sometimes don’t you think?

Barney

The c/f isn't necessarily the selection, and your choice is clearly in with an excellent chance. Good luck in running.


Bream

Yes, indeed, it can get very confusing, a state of mind which, for me, is an enduring one on aspects of VDW.

But my problem with Desert Hero is not how VDW selected him, but the methodological one of how he made it the class/form horse.

ability

meshaheer 140
gateman 130
sugestive 105
binary file 110

Mtoto


Sorry, I meant to thank you earlier for your suggestion of Kazzia at York. At first sight, it looks to be what I wanted: I'll check it out properly later. Thanks.

go back to two yr old

g3 winner


and in form

Barney

Ability (first 5 and equals only):

Gateman 170
Meshaheer 141
Kings Ironbridge 134
Binary File 113
Suggestive 106
Mugharreb 96

Not all in form, of course.

thanks Fulham for that

my fingers are all thumbs today

see what you mean with zafeen there doesnt look much fight there

Johnd

Interesting observation. Are you suggesting that that combination of factors is itself the indicator that this is the race for which the trainer is aiming?

high and mighty

class should see him home and hosed

Guest,
I have alot of respect for what you say and i
think you have alot of bottle for putting up
your selections before racing.
But i was surprised by what you said about the
draw.There can be little doubt that the draw is
an important factor at courses like Chester.
There will always be exceptions to the rule
but anyone backing a horse drawn high at Chester
is going against the odds ,although there can
be times you could back a horse drawn high but
this has to be factored into the price.
RSB clearly shows there is a srong draw bias at
Chester.