barney you up for a chat.
mac.

hi bream ,
good to see you on again
reckon you are "much" further down the road than some, been a while since you last contributed m8 , please do get involved you have so much to offer you never know if guys like yourself put their views over then others of a more exprienced nature might feel an obligation to do the same or is that me being naive, never mind you never know in this game who`s who, do you?.

mac.

Anybody out there find a VDW selection today.

Although my initial thoughts this morning (from the numerical picture) were that several opportunities might come to the fore notably Systematic, Aldora, Kazzia & Kutub my final conclusion was no bets.

Why ?

Systematic - the actual wgt` he was set to carry today on the soft ground put me off.

Aldora - the price availible this morning did not represent value. That said I understand 3/1 was availible before racing which would have been a price I was prepared to take.

Kutub - I didn`t consider his Group 1 form good enough.

Kazzia - mere gut feeling put me off & this was an opportunity missed.

**** any comments ****

Cheers,

Oaks day at Epsom demonstrated the power of the class/form combination, though of course not all class/form horses should be backed, far from it infact.

On one occassion, VDW went through the Derby to show how his way of balancing class & form worked at the highest level.

This year, on a class basis, two horses rise to the top but only one of them has the credentials to take the big race.

Hawk Wing was a warm order for the 2000 at Newmarket but was beaten by his very good stablemate Rock Of Gibraltar. He made his debut last year quite early on at 7f and later won a Group 1 over 7f beating Naheef. The breeding angle doesn't suggest he is bred to win the Derby and he looks to be a very good miler-10 furlongs horse.

High Chaparral just failed to win first time out on his debut late last year against a more experienced rival over 7f. He then easily won his maiden over 7f before taking a marked step up in class beating his more fancied stablemate, Castle Gandolfo in the group 1 Racing Post Trophy at Doncaster over a mile. His 3yo debut was a step up to 10 furlongs at Leopardstown winning easily by 7 lengths. Then stepped back up in class again over the same C&D to win under a penalty in a fast time. He is bred for the distance and proven over further than Hawk Wing and has also taken the same route that provided the last 2 Derby winners. Galileo was a good thing last year and for me, all the evidence points to High Chaparral entering the famous Epsom winners enclosure tomorrow afternoon.

There are other races to consider also, but I thought I'd just post a brief summary as to why I'm sure High Chaparral will win the Derby.

A very pleasant surprise to hear from you again, a view I`m sure many others share.

I believe Hawk Wing will prove to be something very special this season but like you I`m of the opinion it will be over 8 - 10 furlongs.

The O`Brien camp make very few mistakes so the very fact that they insist on running HW tomorrow has to mean something. His sire`s record certainly points to him not staying. Can the stable be so sure of his stamina ?

I accept there is only one Derby but the very fact that HW runs tomorrow gives the race in my opinion an unbalanced look so much so that I cannot see myself making an investment.

Good luck with HC.

**** I hope this is the first of many future posts ****

Cheers,

guest hello again and welcome back


i would once again like to thank you for your generosity over the last few months. i have never had as many winners in my life as lately and its down to you thanks again.

i have just been to haydock and had the first three seconds and the last three winners .yum yum yum

can we lump on high chaperal??

sorry mac

missed your post

Mac

Sorry, I missed your post of yesterday evening.Things have been hectic of late and my study and looking in on the board have had to take second place to other commitments.I'll try to post this evening when I've got more time.

all the best.

200e


1st class/form takamak bay
2nd class/form gentleman venture


of the other horses pasethea is consistent and the form ok.


takamaka bay performed well on good ground at 1m 2f in the early part of last season culminating in a good win in this grade at 1m4f. FTO.

gentleman venture only seems to win once a year so the trainer must have a plan somewhere.opened this years campaign at this course and distance in a reasonable performance with a journeyman,the trainer next decided to go down in grade where he ran with credit at the wrong distance carrying a lot of weight. back here fitter and a stone lighter.top jock.


conclusion- problematical this race(lol)

the four yr old has probably reached the limit of his potential and has been well tried. his form a lthough ok does not suggest the class needed for this is there.

gentleman venture has been been prpared for this and has won at this leval with cut in the ground although not that impressive.

takamaka bay should be too good for these if he is fit and this guy knows whats needed he should be tough to beat.the only one thats won this leval of prize money.


ifs and buts, but there is a good book there

Hello All,

Hope you and yours are well and happy.

Guest - welcome back. I, like Determined, hope that this will be first of many more posts to the thread.

All the best
hegdehog

Hi Guest
High Chaparral is sired by Saddlers Wells
who has a poor record in the Derby.
It wouldn`t be to much of a surprise if
Hawk Wing stays.He qiuckens and runs on well
at the end of his races,seem like he will stay
more than a mile to me.Remember Dancing Brave
who had only won over a mile, but he could
quicken at the end of a race like Hawk Wing.



Maggsy

I agree that the first race at Epsom is a 2 horse race.

T. Bay is a horse I am really looking forward to this season. I have taken the view that todays race will bring him on fitness wise in order for him to win at Ascot.

Taking that view leads me to G.Venture. For me this race is the plan & I have duly placed an investment.

Cheers,

*** the prices are there for a book to be had so I hope by backing just GV I`m not been too greedy.

Maggsy - It was indeed strange that Sadlers Wells took so long to sire a Derby winner after many Oaks winners, but Galileo had a lot more going for him than just breeding last year. Breeding is an interesting area, but final analysis is based on the facts and what a horse has actually done on the track.

The Dancing Braves and El Gran Senors didn't actually win the Derby, just as Hawk Wing didn't actually win the 2000 at Newmarket, though you could be forgiven for thinking he did given the hype and press coverage about his fast finishing second.

hi good to see you back gentlemen , thats ok barney.
mac.

For those using the consistency method in the derby, you would have to say that High Chaparral represents a considerably better bet than did Noverre in the Lockinge. The only slight worry for HC would be whether he can act at Epsom. A worry for all the others as well of course, with the possible exception of Bandari.
regards,

Breeding is one of the factors that VDW
used ,see The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune
page 28.
he talks about a method he uses based on
breeding and basic training techniques.
Breeding may only be a minor factor but
it is a factor.
Also note what VDW wrote in Racing in my system
page16 ,
Quest For Fame Won over 1mile 3Furlongs
distance no problem ,improving and quickens.
I think VDW is saying here the distance
is no problem because the horse can Quicken
at the end of a race.Not many horses can
Quicken when races in the top class races.
All the best horses could do this,Mill Reef,
Brigadier Gerard,Dancing Brave,etc

I realize that Dancing Brave lost the Derby
but i think it`s generally agreed that he
was the best horse never to win the Derby.
He proved later that he was easily the best
horse at that time and was beaten in the
Derby by the course and Jockey.



regards



Maggsy

Guest

May I be the first to congratulate you with your confident selection on this years Derby winner.

Unambiguous and uneqvivocal, bloody well done !



111
.

Or even uneqUivocal

Hello everyone,

Mac,
I think you may have miscalculated my ability rating.On a good day I may be capable of winning a 0-80 at Catterick but some of you guys on here are group class,no doubt about that.

As if to demonstrate my level of understanding I am presently struggling with one of VDW's examples, namely Battlement.

I don't have a problem with how VDW saw Battlement as a possible winner as it seems to me entirely consistent with some of his other selections but if this race were being run today I would have real problems eliminating Move Off.

Move Off had won the very race it was to contest with Battlement the previous year carrying 4lb less.Move Off had rounded the season off by winning the Ebor class 73 and then the Ayrshire hcp class76.When VDW eliminated it Move Off was contesting a class 24 carrying 4lb more than when winning the very race 12 months ago.

Some people have had a problem with how Beacon Light was eliminated.Strangely enough I don't.To me again it seems entirely consistent with the way VDW viewed things.Am I looking at things the wrong way?

If the reason for Beacon Lights elimination was the same as Move Offs I would appreciate someone saying.

Mac I certainly don't think your naive, just the opposite in fact.

Guest

Well done today.Your posts are always educational and I want you to know how much I appreciate them.

all the best everyone

The Guru names the Derby winner 36 hours in advance (No, not the 1920 Derby, we`re talking the 2002 Derby) and some well meaning newby gives a couple of lines at the foot of a post.

What is the world coming to ??

Where`s all the sheep??