Nomadic Way (cesarewitch) october 15th 88

Guest

An interesting response, as ever.

I remain sceptical as to how realistic it is to spot Rivage Bleus in advance as bets. Unless one was inclined to take more of a chance than I (and, from my observations, you) would ordinarily consider, one would need to see a strong positive (which at present I can't find) to offset the negatives of being a dodgy jumper and carrying so many pounds more than appropriate on handicap terms. By comparison, your good winner Birjand was a standout and, as you say, nothing to do with the draw.

At least Rivage Bleu provides something to puzzle over during the long Winter evenings!

On a quite different note, and for another research purpose, I wonder whether you or any other board member could please suggest an example of an apparently absolutely nailed on VDW class/form selection this year that was beaten for other than palpably obvious "physical" reasons, such as falling, being brought down, baulked etc? The nearer I can get to a losing "Little Owl" example, where one could properly say before the "off" that this is a racing certainty, the better. Alas my own records this season don't furnish a suitable example.

Thanks in anticipation.

Thanks investor,

he certainly was c/f

great point the other day about value,but not considering the draw is just plain daft

445p

anyone looked at this one?

can you sort out any race?

Barney - You can look at any race in VDWs way and find something as the most likely winnner or group of possibles, but that wasn't the objective of doing things his way. The lower class you go, the less reliable the horses get.

Greg - Daft in your opinion, but to be brutally honest I didn't even know where Birjan was drawn until I sat down to watch the race. Witness horses such as proud Native yesterday drawn 1 at Sandown yet a different class to the others and a comfortable winner. Witness also assumtions often made at kempton about the draw and frequently shown up to be wrong. At Chester recently the winners came down the centre of the track form all sorts of draws. It's about who is the best horse on the day pure and simple. There are many reasons why horses appear to run below form, but it's not all down to the draw and getting cover in running.

its not often i disagree with your opinion but i can not seriously believe YOU seriously believe your post regarding the draw.
to say that birjand's draw was not known to you until you watched the race is stretching credibility for selection to the limit.
you had sat and watched how significant the draw was last week time and time again and the only race where the result was not decided before the race was the excellent ride that mongon gave to mysterinch and that had a lot to do with go away also drawn low setting a scorching pace and setting the race up for it.
there are always exceptions to the rule but draw bias where applicable does count for a great deal.

Fulham/Guest

I had a brief look at Rivage this morning
One thing that stands out
On the 10th march 95 he ran over the same distance as he was sent to win over 4 runs later
He ran 24 lbs out of the hcp running 3rd beating horses rated 86+ and they were some 30 lenghts behind, albeit those horses behind didn’t put up much of a fight
Or could be the front 3 finishers have run too well for the rest of the field.?
This is the only pointer I can see so far from racecourse performance that could have alerted anyone to Rivage being well handicapped (easy cracking of the Handicap)?
In his next race he was hoplessly outclassed meeting horses rated a lot higher with which he had no chance at the weights
Next race over 3 miles he broke a blood vessel
Harwells lad race was an Amateurs race by the looks of it where he was beaten by the 10/11 fav (first run of the season)
It’s a pity some of these pointers don’t fit in with the majority of the other examples.

Guest

In general for a horse to win a race from a bad draw
He has to have seriously more fire power than the rest of the feild
I would hope that all the horses I back have this firepower therefore I dont take much notice of the draw either
As without the firepower or call it what you like I wouldnt back the horse in the first place

I`m with you Guest, don`t care about the draw, it`s sire could be working on Scarborough beach and Billy Bunter could be the jockey, it`s all down to MLP.

PS Don`t for get Saturday, nice 3/1`ll do fine

does any one want too back a short priced fav drawn one at hamilton on heavy going i know its overkill but the draw must have some effect in certain races

good luck too all today

Aceishigh

Did just that
Miss opulence 26th June drawn 1 on soft
Won by 8 lengths (too much firepower for the rest of the feild)

Boozer


Rivage Bleu

Yes, there are pointers, like the one you mention, and no one could, sanely, be surprised to find that RB had won. But being able to see it in advance as good enough to back is, I hope you will agree, a different thing altogether, and its there where, currently, I'm having difficulty.

iv'e come to the conclusion that we must look at every race,We were that busy looking at Coalition and friends that we missed a good oppurtunity yesterday,So i think the answer to your question to guest is yes,We must evaluate every race in case there are any proud natives lurking about

like i said there are always exceptions to the rule but in the case of miss opulence it was only a 10 runner race in comparison to birjands 24 runners.the race was also over 9f and not a sprint as was birjands race so the draw did not matter half as much.

aceshigh made a good point and not even you vdw'ers would show a level stakes profit backing horses over the conditions he used as an example.

after the effort you have all made in studying and mastering the vdw method dont tell me you are going to take no notice of the single most important factor the draw where relevent.
you can have all the ability in the world but if you are drawn out of the race before you run you are not going to win and anyone who thinks otherwise,well i wish i was your bookie.

boozer the going i mentioned was heavy not quite the same

At Ayr the two principal races are of very different natures. The 2yo listed race has the winner most unlikely to be other than Bella Tusa,Bond Becks or Membership but there is no clear choice. In the 4.35 a few horses have been running out of their class notably Unleash and Timing. Unleash shows as the class/form horse and should be able to give the weight to Timing and will be taken as a bet.

The 3.55 Yarmouth has lots of conflict and whilst Ruby Wedding looks the most likely winner I wouldn't put hard cash on it.

At Pontefract three races to look at. The 4.15 has Smart Hostess as the class/form horse, consistent and worth a bet. Another method shows another player likely to be Sisal so I'll be backing both in the race.

In the 3.45 Archduke Ferdinand is the class/form horse and anything better than the forecast odds looks worth taking.

In the 4.45 the Birjan approach shows Sarraaf as placed to win today and a good thing.

Likewise at Clonmel in the 4.30 with Ballyconnell who rates about a 1/3 shot in my view.

Potentially a busy day then odds permitting.

Max - You may find it hard to believe, but I honestly did not know or take into account where Birjan was drawn. The pace and where it is has more effect than the draw, though I concede in tightly knit races ability wise, the draw will have some effect at certain courses, but it is not of the importance so many believe. Class and form are by far the most important and I don't think you would really like to be my bookie. I'm not right all the time obviously, but I keep my profits.

Boozer - Look at Sarraafs form and see what you notice compared to the 6 examples VDW gave along with Birjan.

Max

I am only a 50% Vdwer but
Yes you are right most of the time concerning the draw at donny especialy on soft ground

Aceishigh

Sorry the best I could do re: a recent example

now't wrong with an 8/1 winner no matter how you get it.
good luck to you.

guest have you looked at little amin

same difference only two muddle ups