Roushayd had all 3 factors on the 2nd July.

I`d be interested in the 3 factors you refer to.

`R` was certainly highest on ability, well placed in the betting, equal 3rd on consistency, and had clearly marked his card on his last run.

Added to that he had by far the best `class` rating of all the runners in the race.

Also, far better off with Vouchsafe on Epsom running.

`R` certainly looked to have alot of plus` on the day.

Cheers,

i know that its after the event but did anyone else get the 720 at chester 2nd on class first on class/form.

it just shows they are not all short prices.


comments please!

Determined my thesis re- the three factors & may i add thats all it is at this stage, is when vdw said all three lined lined up he was`nt referring to the horses mentioned therin but the circumstances concerning roushayds profile coming into the race on july 2nd which is illustrated in chapter six.
mac.

Barney had a quick look last night but thought espada would struggle from the draw so left the race alone, was it yum yum again.
mac.

it shows that class will overcome these factors,

i found it very hard to lump on a 14/1, but i got enough on to make my mouth water if not a full yum yum

Barney,

Top on ability was Invader who won in higher class then Espada last time.

Do I take it that `I` was considered not in form because the distance was wrong.

Back to `E`. I agree there were several plus factors most notably the fact that he was in `peak` form whereas the opposition clearly were not. That said, given his draw I doubt that I would have invested.

You certainly did and all credit to you.

I agree that short priced winners will not always be the case & I`m looking forward to hopefully finding several Espada`s throughout the next 3 - 4 months.

Well done again,

Cheers,

Barney

Good luck to you, but Espada, unlike Roushayd in the 1988 Old Newton Cup, was most assuredly not the VDW class/form horse in the 7.20 at Chester, though Invader, who was, was a long way from being a bet.

fulham i agree that it was not roushayed butunexposed hidden form combined with a shrewd placement by the trainer.

invader very inconsistent, his last race was the target,wrong distance.

espada four races ago showed a return to form,then ran at wrong distance in this grade a grade he had won at previosly,tried at mile in this grade where again performed well(could not have won coming from six),the trainer now cant believe what has happened a sudden return to form and bangs it down in grade carrying lots of weight, my o my it does it again -lets look for a lot more winnings quick!!

had the second on class was most in form of those its form was the best in comparison with other horses with a chance.

what more can one ask for


thats how i saw it

detrmined

the value of the race is not the true measure of the class of performance, its a usefull pointer.


go back to prominent king!

Espada – Invader.

Barney,

I totally agree that the race value is not the only point to consider when considering the `class` of a horses previous races.

Invader was coming out of a 0 – 95 C rated Ripon handicap ( top wgt rated 85 ). He carried 9-05 at the starting price of 9/1 & the very fact he was sent up to Ripon was very significant told its own story & yes I agree it was the plan. The race was `slow` but he did beat Tedstale ( form with Espada ).
Inconsistent yes but his winning form at Wolverhampton when conceding 15 lbs to Lady Bear was good form.
At Chester last night he was carrying 2 lbs less on a track where he hadn`t proved himself & he was against better opposition than he faced at Ripon last time.
Summary – he was a form horse but was his winning run last time, was it the form to win this race ? He had to be a probable.


Espada – looking at his form now I`m very annoyed at missing his Catterick win as in my opinion he had clearly marked his card at Thirsk on the 4th May, ie – tell tale sign of improvement in his previous. Some would argue that he had to drop significantly in class to win at Catterick therefore was that a downturn in form compared to his previous run at Thirsk. The speed figure recorded at Catterick didn`t suggest a downturn.
He was raised significantly in class again last night however he had already proved himself in this class both recently on on old form therefore he to had to be a probable.

**** both without doubt had to be probables but I cannot really say hand on heart whether either would have been a bet for me ****

HOPEFULLY MORE OF THESE DISCUSSIONS WHETHER BEFORE OR AFTER RACES CAN CONTINUE.

Cheers,

determined to prolong the theme-

the caterrick run was a much improved and definately a class performance, the grade was not important when one considers his previous ability he had shown in that race a capacity for an even better performance under the right circumstances.

which the trainer duly provided

One performance is better than another.

Barney,

You clearly took the view that Espada`s Catterick run was superior to Invader`s Ripon run.

Cheers,

hi,
True measure of class of performance , ive been looking this over again earlier tonight, been drawn to sunset cristo`s race where vdw makes mention of silver buck & another captain , "note not only how it ran but what it had behind it" am i looking in the right area?.
mac.

hic mac

lots of vdw's apparently simple comments will show the way if approached in the correct manner.

what it had behind it is not a trick question but how these factors are measured is.the quality of the oposition has nothing to with OR which i again state are rubbish when trying to evaluate certain races, you will only find high rated winners and miss these.sure there is overlap with or but thats not the way.


sunset cristo is an interesting horse as i am sure that lots of contributors on here could not have backed it due to numerical conflict and then start to wonder about backfitting.sunset cristo was the c/f,same as espada was the c/f.
i am sur we have all seen this comment- "NUMBERS GAME TO FORM A PICTURE" - this does not mean the numbers game is the answer.

[This message was edited by Barney on June 07, 2002 at 07:03 AM.]

Several horses with good `class` performances last time will go very close to winning again today.

Cheers,

also the oaks is a good race to watch, and should throw up half a dozen winners for the next month or two, if you are using roushyd.

230e

1st class/form kootenay
2nd class/form golden silica

problematical this race kootenay is struggling to reproduce his italian form over here,golden silica is struggling to reproduce his uk form in saudi.if the top of the hill has anything to do with it then golden silica will come out on top.

it will be a good pointer to the chances of some oaks fancies as well as kootenay has been bridesmaid to a couple of those.OR IS THAT FORM GOOD ENOUGH FOR A WIN HERE, on balance i dont think so.

I think the race is between the 2 Barney has mentioned but neither have shown enough for me therefore no bet.

*** looking at weather f/c on the tv just now it looks very misty, damp, etc down south. Are we expecting further rain at Epsom ?

It could possibly spoil the whole meeting if further rain falls.

Back to the football,

Cheers,

morning gents,
Barney thanks again, "how these factors are measured is the prob" ive had some thoughts on how best to approach this but not sure how many horses should be considered or used when trying to formulate an overall rating in respect of the horses last race, is it only the placed horses? the class of race a horse runs in is not the same as the class of opposition, please bear with me here, im also having problems with formulating a rating at this stage for horses who have finished unplaced l.t.o. do we need to go back further with them to find their best run for a rating, as you say it would seem that it is the simple things he said that are most helpful.

mac.

hi mac


concentrate in the areas vdw told us to gain a winning strip.

check all others runners for consisitency(whether placed or not).

compare the form relative to the real opposition and then make the descision to bet or NOT!!!!