Guest.

I'm surprised at your question do I back every c/form horse. I would have thought my previous posting would have answered that. The answer is a resounding no, I made Milligan the c/form, horse he didn't even go on the short list. What he did do was eliminate the race, because it is foolish to take on class. Your other statement there is a c/form horse in every race. I agree, but I would include the rider that in many cases the word class doesn't mean what I'm looking for. There is a difference between class, and best of a bad bunch. Using the ability rating as you do how do you find the c/form horse in maidens? I only ask because of the suggestion there is one in every race?

Fulham.

I fully agree with your thinking on this thread. I will be following your lead and sending Gummy my subscription. I must ask though, why the best thread on the internet only warrants 4 stars and not the full 5.

Even though there are a lot of *class* form horses running today, they will have to do so without my money

Mtoto,

Your posts are certainly the stuff of good debate.

I seem to remember you saying you get 46% winners at an average 6/1.That is absolutely phenomenal,equivalent to every bet you make winning at odds of 5/2.

Some people on the board have said that you helped them to a better understanding so I have no reason to believe you are anything but genuine.

I am however having trouble with you saying you know how to find the class form horse.In my opinion VDW gave us a benchmark to work to.If we weren't achieving a minimum 80% winners,he said,we should evaluate our reading of form.Given that your strike rate is below the benchmark however,what is it that makes you so sure you are viewing things the same as VDW did?

Am I right in thinking that you said in a race you only consider horses rated within 10 lbs of the top OR.I cannot believe VDW would have had such a rigid rule.It certainly doesn't apply to some of his early examples.Assuming I haven't got you confused with someone else,are you using this in relation to the Roushayd method?

Statajack/Guest

Given that I said previously I had struggled with VDW's methods because I had no reference then to people who understood them,on reflection it would be foolish of me to ignore the advice of such people now.I am going to take things a bit slower and try not to get too far ahead of myself.Today going over some of the early examples in my dinner time at work I spotted something I had missed previously.I think it was Lee who suggested that was a good idea,and so it is.
Cheers everyone

Bream,

I am positive that the way to gain the most from the methods is by looking at the examples that VDW shared. Some have gone further than I have in their quest, whilst I’m sure that I have gone further than others, but in my mind it is essential in order to understand.

Mtoto,

Forgive me first of all for the presumptions I’m about to make! I don’t know how you go about winner finding, but from your past posts that you’ve made I have a fair idea of what is important to you when evaluating a race. Obviously speed figures are, and you have also hinted at how you establish the class of a horse in saying that weight is not important. That said, using your method, would you be able to isolate the likely winner of a maiden race, or indeed a race contested by the younger horses? I ask this because you’ve previously stated that handicaps were your game?

Fulham,

I don’t have anything to compare how good this forum is, apart from the obvious crap that’s around, but I’ll take your word for it on how it is head and shoulders above anything else. The good thing about it is there is much opinion and structured argument, which is great.

Fulham - Normally I wouldn't stray much further than the 2nd on class/form though there are other approaches that unearth the unexposed types.

Mtoto - As VDW suggested, for younger unexposed horses on the flat it is a good idea to use a further measure of ability/merit and speed figures are a good guide (though like the ability rating not foolproof). However, even without speed figures it is still possible to find the class/form horse in a maiden. As VDW stated there are other ways to find the class of a horse who has not won. I wonder why he mentioned that?

In relation does anyone know why I said Proven had the best form at Newbury last Friday?

I've been a 'lurker' on this forum for 6 months or so while studying VDW methodology and have recently 'taken the plunge' and backed myself with cash.

I'm writing to answer Guests question about Proven, if I can. Indeed, if I'm wrong, I'm hoping that his reply will prove illuminating.

Proven was lightly raced at 2 with one appearance at a VDW top track late in the year over 7f beating decent 2yos with a little race experience when (16-1), while recording a decent time figure to boot. Conclusion, the trainer thinks a lot of the horse and sees it as one of his better 3yo prospects. The only question mark would be the going, although his sire's record suggested that wouldn't be a problem.

The other horses had various question marks (brought out earlier in the year, low quality tracks and one or two significantly dissapointing performances at longer distances later in the year against questionable opposition).

With a forecast price of 5-1 I was going to back it myself but was put off because of the short price coupled with my own lack of experience in these matters,

Lee.

I have never found the need to back in maiden races, so I have never studied them. I don't back in 2 year old races or juvenile hurdles until the end of the season if at all. I also fight shy of handicaps with too many unexposed horses. I never take maiden form at face value in handicaps, preferring to use handicap form.

Bream

I try to get people talking, and the best way to do that is to offer an alternative view. If we all agree the discussion will just stagnate. If I was to ask for a unique name it would be WHY.
Re your questions. If I took the very short prices into account I am sure I could get close to the required strike rate. I am not interested in the short priced horses and it would be unfair to count them as I would never put money on them. That is not to say occasionally one of them is a great value bet and then I will play i. e Barracuda at Cheltenham I thought it was an odds on shot and any price above evens was a steal 7/4 was Christmas come early. To be fair, they are very few and far between and most of the short priced horses aren't any value at all. Although most of my thinking is vdw I do read other people.That filter is some thing I came up with based on my observations. Sorry if you thought it was vdw.

Guest.

I know the question was asked re horses that hadn't won. I can't find vdw's answer to the question. It appears to have been, concentrate on horses that win and what they have achieved on the racecourse. "We are looking for winners" that have proved their ability. If this is wrong I would be happy if you could give me a little nudge. At this point I would like to ask you 2 questions. They are genuine, and not trick questions. Would vdw take the form of a £10,000 handicap as better form than a £5,000 Group 2 race, all other things being equal? The other question is the penalty value of a group race goes up £1,000 over the year. Would the winner of the £9.500 race be inferior to the winner next year if the race is worth £10,500? The grade class remains the same. The answers to these questions would be of great help in trying to understand how vdw thought.

Hope you had a good day

Carlos - A well thought out overview of Provens career to date and also of the other runners. There was a further reason just why Provens win was better form than the others involved. Again you will have to be very thorough in your asessments to see the answers.

Mtoto - A tricky one to answer again without pulling the curtain back a bit too far. What I would say is that when evaluating past form, a race could have been worth just a pound but the opposition involved is more the point. Obviously though it is about the permutations involved in asessing one against the other. Also, one race in isolation is not enough. Valley Henry had won just a schooling session really in his last race, but his earlier runs were much more revealing about his strength of form. The really good horses that appear to be dodgy jumpers owing to recent falls or URs often iron out their problems for a big day and they don't continually fall in their races. Marlborough made some spectacular mistakes in early novice races but improved with experience to win some good prizes though not to the level that some have him at.

So in short, no I wouldn't have genuine group 2 runners below a handicapper if they had the real form in the book.

Florida Pearl assured a good day thanks.

I didn`t even make this horse the 2nd class / form horse however since the weekend I have scrutinised all his form and whilst I accept it is in hindsight his overall form as Guest stated was very good compared to the rest of the field.

His 2nd winning run this season really showed the measure of his class/form. That good run saw him made favourite for the Feltham which adds further weight to his `class`.

A true class horse placed in a Mickey Mouse race last time to prove he`s healthy and then placed at Ayr where the prize was big enough and bingo.

" the class/form horse usually takes the prize when big enough. "

Having said all that I would still have had to question his jumping. A fact which Guest has just addressed.

You learn something everyday.

Evaluating a full season`s form is one thing but when identifying the c/f horse do we sometimes have to consider previous season`s form ?

Cheers,

Guest

An encouraging answer with a not unexpected 'enigmatic' twist, looks like I'll have to spend some more time reviewing the runners form.
Due to the 'rigours' of the day job I have to spend my evenings with my nose in the form book (4 - 6 hours a night more at weekends).

What's your view of the use of Sire stats in reviewing the form of 3yos lightly raced at 2 (Proven), as I believe a combination of VDW's hints, sire stats and the ideas of Steve Roman coupled with plenty of work provides an excellent guide as to the likely form of these horses (King Of Happiness, Islington, Swing Wing and Proven).

Thanks for the hint, now back to the books

Carlos - VDW did touch upon breeding and how it fits in, but as ever it is just one factor that needs balancing with the rest of them. Nothing works in isolation but when combined with class and form breeding can be a very good guide as with the horses you mentioned.

Today I rate Star Jack as a class/form horse worth supporting.

can limestone lad and moscow flyer do the business today,the ground will play a major part i feel,quazar looks good but unexpected at 16/1 loves the ground,but one to leave i think,hope you filled your boots with full irish i had him rated 68/93 strong bet....guest your a brave man calling that one.

It was VDWs hints on breeding which alerted my interest in the work of Steve Roman (Dosage Index etc.). While I use it only as a guide it at least provides a few quantitive measures of a thoroughbreds pedigree.

The VDW articles regarding the selection of 3yos seems to me to be a gold mine of hints and tips that, if followed properly, seem to work season in season out. Fight Your Corners fall from grace at Newmarket was a text book case of high expectations not realised as laid out by VDW.

Not sure about Star Jack, weight? distance? but I can't say I've looked at it in any great depth (I like to take an hour or two over a race).

Anyway, duty calls....

Guest,
A strange choice for me, given the weight and distance issues as Carlos points out. Top on ability and dropped in grade but while you can forgive one "p" in the form figures 3 Ps and a F hardly seems to imply consistency.Last completion prior to Ayr was in early 2000. What made you ignore all the negatives?
regards,

guest was that as a lay?

once again a high priced winner fails to deliver when supported next time.

never mind you will make a fortune tomorrow.

Well good to see so much logic thrown back into the pot re Star Jack. To be fair he did have one very big positive but you're all right in saying the negatives outweighed this. 25/1 winners do have a nasty habit of getting beat next time though 16/1 LTO winner Quazar confirmed the good form.

I did make a 2nd bet today as the odds available were quite surprising given the lack of opposition. Still, I didn't mention it earlier so I'm not going to name it now, though it should be obvious really.

Guest.

Thanks for the resonse to my question, how about the increase of price money. Would that be taken as a better class race? Wish I could give an answer to your question re Proven. I wouldn't attempt to assese any horse on just one run. Thought vdw let them run another race before backed a three year old. One other thing could you have a quick look at the filter thread and tell my if I have named a c/form horse that you don't agree with? I'm not asking if it was a selection for you, just if you think it's a c/form horse.

Stratajack.

Would you have backed Roushayd? I didn't look at Star Jack as a selection for the consistency method, more along the lines of Roushayd. Can't see why it failed to qualify as the pulled up and fell were on heavy or soft going. I was a little worried it would be taken of it's feet over the shorter distance though.

Barney

The first big bet I ever had was on Beech Road after it won the Champion Hurdle at 50/1. It won it's next race at Liverpool at 10's. I think it is more important to see what the horse beats than worry about the price it won at. Yes some fail but a lot also win.

Tomorrows another day

Mtoto - Re prize money increased from year to year for a race renewal - Again I would say the level of opposition would be more important, though the prize on offer does play it's part in the evaluation process. A 10 grand race dominated by horses who have run well in 5 grand races would be less of a contest than an 8 grand race involving horses from 15 grand events. This is what VDW mean't by endless permutations in the balance between class and form.

I agree that Full Irish was class/form but Deep Water wasn't a form horse for me. Starjack was class/form but with negatives of course. Interesting that the winner was 6/1 at Aintree last time.

Mototo,
I dont know about Roushayd itself without a form book but Star Jack was not a Roushayd method qualifier for me as I like to see the continued improvement aspect shown by a horse that actually completes its races. As guest says in a previous post, there was a Roushayd qualifier at Perth yesterday and it was no surprise he spotted it.
regards,

Guest

I was sorry (although not altogether surprised) to see Star Jack fail yesterday, for me the weight was the biggest negative.

Quazar is one of my favourite horses, a slightly tempremental perfomer but when he's got his ground and his correct distance he's a difficult horse to beat. The odd rick in his record has usually been for good reason and has kept the price high when things are set in his favour.

I do now see the horse at Perth (isn't hindsight wonderful) but I never really considered the race (again!!).

So little time and so many races........

At Sandown today the principal races are divided between flat & jumps. I live quite nearby and it has been raining all morning so it is a surprise not to see any going report update on the racing post website.

In the opener the class/form horse is Demasta and there seems little in the way of dangers. This is a better event, opposition wise, though than Cheltenham and I'll let it run. No bet.

The 2.15 has Copeland as c/f and stablemate Rodock 2nd on c/f. Copeland is on significantly better terms with Vol Solitaire who ran so well last Saturday and looks the most probable winner but again I'll let it run. No bet.

3.25 Has all 4 runners as form horses and being a 3yo event extra care is needed in assessing their merits. On a class basis Simeon and Right Approach have the edge but on inspecting their speed figures Simeon has a good advantage over Kaieteur. Simeon made his debut up north but showed very good form at York,Goodwood and Doncaster along with his win at Haydock over extended 1m 2f last time winning by 7 lengths at 8/11fav (and a good thing on the day). Improving and stays he looks a good thing to oblige again.

4.00 The clear class/form horse Maximize has won a grade 1 chase but was found out in a better contest at Cheltenham after a break. Has won 3 novice chases and very consistent at this level. Providing a price not much worse than evens he looks a good thing to back.

At Perth the 3.45 has Zafarabad class/form with both Trouble Ahead and Storm Damage 2nd class/form. Trouble Ahead looks more likely but there is plenty of conflict and the race is one to leave for me.

4.55 has Kadaran the class/form horse and the form shows him to be a good thing but the price will be short no doubt. The market will be watched though just in case.

At Punchestown in 3.15 Landing Light is the class/form horse with Ned Kelly 2nd c/f. Ned Kelly won a similiar class gd1 hurdle last time at 11/8f but the form itself wasn't up to usual gd1 standards. Landing Light looked to hold a good chance in the Champion Hurdle but ran below expectations and has been given a break also. Previous form was well up to scratch and he won a gd1 hurdle at Sandown a year ago virtually to the day. To me he looks a good thing.

So I'll be looking to back Simeon, Maxamize (price permitting), Landing Light and possibly Kadarann (price permitting).