Determined,

I have asked questions about these remarks about Shimshek. I don't have the form books and the Racing Post database doesn't seem to agree with VDW thinking on this. The second run on face value doesn't seem to be a down turn of form.

Reading the next chapter VDW uses the same expression (a down turn) about Desert Orchid even though he says won as he liked. The down turn seems to be based solely on the fact the s/f was inferior to the run before. Is it possible that this is also the case with Shimshek for his 2nd run? He does pass comment that it was a slow race.

I'm a little hesitant to mention this as I'm sure JohnD will find fault in this thinking. However VDW does seem to place some doubt on the value of the form if pace is lacking. I fail to see how a horse can record a good s/f without the pace being up to standard. As John seems to think you can have one without the other I'm sure he will be able to enlighten us. That should be an interesting post.

Be Lucky

[On recent running, On recent running, Shimshek has the highest previous race class, finishing second in a five horse race over 2 miles but when you examine the form it does not make the pulse quicken. The race was slow AND THE HORSH DID NOTHING FROM THE DISTANCE. When looking at the race before, it shows a considerable downturn so is not 'on' here. Shimshek, however, was only beaten a head and this should indicate to you the importance of class.]

PK,

The above is the actual piece from Systematic Betting written by VDW. I have posted it so there can be no doubt. He says the downturn of form is shown from the race before and the last race. So he was basing it on that run not something that had happened last season.

I also think it is interesting from the point of view for the folk that insist the a/rating was being used. He ends the passage with the words 'and this should indicate to you the importance of class' What class, Shimshek had an a/rating of 19. The 3rd lowest in the race, and way under horses VDW had eliminated as not having the class or form. Much has been said that VDW said Shimshek didn't have class as a horse, but here he is saying about the importance of class?? Is he not judging class in this case solely on the value of the last race??

Have to ask are you related to Barney? He also has a fixation about BL and often seems to use him as an example of an out of form horse. If a horse has just run the race of his life is out of form, god help us all!!!

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

CVDW and I, have examined the form and our pulses did not quicken.

The rest is just HUMBUG.

who's Barney?

SHIMSHEK IS NOT A FORM HORSE, ROUSHAYD IS NOT A FORM HORSE(on his first run) AND NEITHER IS BEACON LIGHT.

What if he had won? would we have another Master Brutus or a c/f horse?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pkboy,

PK,

[The rest is just HUMBUG.]

The rest of what? You can't be referring to my last post, can you? I didn't make it up, it was written by VDW.

If you would like to explain what you think is humbug, I'm more than willing to listen. All I ask is the explanations are logical, and can stand up to serious scrutiny. Unlike your reasoning about Shimshek. It is crystal clear that VDW was talking about the last race being a downturn based on the race before. Apart from pointing out Roushayd and First Division had won better class races in the past, the whole class factor in these examples is based on the last run.

I have never said Shimshek was a form horse. Take out the s/f and explain why Roushayd wasn't the c/form horse at Epsom?

Be Lucky

For those, like TC and Mtoto, who are interested in pace and speed, I've just been reminded of an old favourite of mine - Jo Takach.

The contact address is

www.paceadvantage.com


A bit depressing, as, even in Southern California ( I guess it never rains etc,), Jo reckons going diffs cannot be accurately measured, so he uses speed figs only on the dirt , never on the turf.

Well, I'm undeterred myself. Swish put me onto the best winning data I've ever found - so there!

The second bit of depressing news came when trawling thru old VDW posts on Gummy.

One guy said he was amazed to find that Roushayd - whom we never stop hearing about - never won another race ( following the oft-used example)!!

Not much of a recommensation for " class never fading" etc.!

Perhaps it wasn't true at all.
I guess someone will enlighten us.

I would be v cautious about trying to distinguish between the words pace, speed, and time. That is not to say that there arent differences between the terms, only that the words have traditionally been, if not interchangeable, at least overlapping.

People who have written about these matters without giving an unambiguous definition of the terms they are using will inevitably confuse their readers.

TC,

No, I don’t use Superform. The only commercial ratings that I use are Split Second.

Determined,

Pkboy is correct in his opinions regarding Shimshek – What did the horse do at the sharp end of the race at Ascot? Having every chance over 1f out he couldn’t peg back Sergeyevich, in receipt of weight; note how the race didn’t quite pan out as expected – why not?

Investor,

Yes.

My attempt at VDW selection went a good bit off course, despite the winner being expected.

However, this race won't be finding its way into the VDW Hall of Fame.

On the basics - which now may or may not be discredited by Lee and others in the know - the close second, Crystal d'Ainay doesn't score particularly well:

Win prize money divided by number of wins:

Barracouda 33, won

Crystal 11, 2nd

Rule Supreme 34, 3rd

On the consistency figures - from adding last three form figs:

Barra 4
Crystal 8
Rule 4

The betting forecast went

Barra 4/9
Rule 9/2
Crystal 5/1

"My" speed figs said

Barra 1st
Crystal 2nd

Rest nowhere.

JIB -

Sure confuses me !!

Sure tho that whilst they are related - In the world of VDW - they are are not the same, and one can be used in the context of the other.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Yes it's a hazy area:


I say speed is " furlongs per second"

pace is " the controlled variation of speed ( increase/decrease) at various sections of the race"

time is " time taken in seconds to complete the race from start to finish."

quote:

---

Originally posted by Mtoto:
Determined,



I'm a little hesitant to mention this as I'm sure JohnD will find fault in this thinking. However VDW does seem to place some doubt on the value of the form if pace is lacking. I fail to see how a horse can record a good s/f without the pace being up to standard. As John seems to think you can have one without the other I'm sure he will be able to enlighten us. That should be an interesting post.

Be Lucky

---

Mtoto
Suppose it was to be expected that you would join the Ectoo club of deliberately misquoting others!
Nowhere have I made or implied the above statement, or anything like it, and it does little for the integrity of the authors of such postings!
God knows why I bother, maybe it is just that I don't wish for others to be misled by your obsessive viewpoint, but I will point out the following:

On recent running, Shimshek has the highest previous race class, finishing second in a five horse race over 2 miles but when you examine the form it does not make the pulse quicken. The race was slow AND THE HORSH DID NOTHING FROM THE DISTANCE. When looking at the race before, it shows a considerable downturn so is not 'on' here. Shimshek, however, was only beaten a head and this should indicate to you the importance of class.]
The previous race that VDW refers to was also a slowly run race, although a 0-110 h'cap, the slowest on the card, (Including a 2yo fillies maiden), where Shimshek recorded the massive s/f of 19 (Sporting Life flat results).
On the scant evidence of the dire to the abysmal, you herald this as a triumph for your approach, and the only possible way to make this a downturn in form. It isn't, but until you take off the blinkers, you may never see the light!


Determined
I am fairly sure that I can make a much better case for the downturn than is evidenced so far, but I am lacking the previous years form book so cannot be certain, and, in any case, would not do so on here.
If you would kindly contact me by email, I will explain further.

seanrua

Pace - Your explanation would be close to the American concept, and if "sectional Timing" were availible - would be rational.

Hovever neither VDW or ourselves have/had this luxury, and we must believe he was refering to something else.

I think that the Superform explanation fits the bill - where they say that if a race is slow - relative to the other races on the card - then it is lacking in pace.

Quite how a fast Time figure can be achieved in a race of this nature - that I dont understand - but the implication is, that it can !!

Anyone ??

Lee,

We are pissing in the wind as far as Mtoto is concerned. One mans meat is another mans Poison. And CVDW's way does not "enthuse", for whatever reason although "time in the form of speed figures may".

Mtoto,

I pointed out recently why Roushayd is a form horse. You should Look a bit more before you leap.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: pkboy,

pkboy

Are the rest of us excluded from this "Club" ??

You make an awfull lot of "Statements" which I suppose might make sense to some contributors- but you are very short on "Hard Facts" or arguments that the rest of us might use to further our understanding of the subject - or is it yet another case of "Buy the Ancient Runes" and work it all out for yourself !

You disapoint me - I dont how others percieve your posts

Are you a "Gummy Member" - or just another "VDW contributor" ?? who has found a convenient home ??

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Tuppenycat,

Lee - sorry -

I think I got you mixed up with ectoo

Few more posts - would be welcome tho !

I would just like to say that throughout my time on this thread I have always posted under a clear identity i.e john in brasil or john in brazil.

I cannot understand why anyone would want to obfuscate this matter.

?????????

Who ?????????

Mtoto, Pkboy, Lee and Johnd,

Just read all the replies for which I thank you. Been otherwise occupied for most of the day but will hopefully digest your comments and respond later.

Thanks again, more later

pkboy, lee, mtoto, determined,everyone, would it be possible for members who have the form for the races mentioned in systematic betting, to post abilty rating, speed figures, form relating to horses, pkboy, lee, could you go further with your evaulation on shimsheks, race in the prix oak, do not have form to check, thanks

grundy -

Not a "f**kin" chance !



Talk "''bout" - "feet of clay " !!!