determined many thanks for your reply,,hugo de grez,profile for this race as been similar to other previous winners ,,i agree with your view about going up in class?previous winners such as young kenny,, frantic tan,,,don samourai,,,suny bay,,,lo stregone all had low weights,,,i would welcome any comments,,grundy

Grundy,

I agree that light weights have done well in this race in the past and the ones you have named would appear to have been on the upgrade at the time.

H de Grez is likewise on the up having improved his OR by 19 lbs this season and I note his run last time over an inadequate trip was his first for several months. He should therefore be fitter tomorrow and will have conditions to suit but is he good enough ?

Given his consistency figure of 4 he`ll come under close scrutiny from the experts so lets hope some of them offer a view.

In my opinion it is a difficult race but I am seriously considering backing both Mini Sensation and Iris Bleu at present. Tomorrow`s conditions and the available prices will however have to be considered before any final decision.

Cheers,

DETERMINED
Thanks for the info re the bonus for winning both races, I wasn't aware of that, it certainly adds interest.
From a BEST FORM point of view amongst the form horses, Shotgun Willy's last run gives him the edge, both on race value and ratings, whereas ABILITY RATINGS would give Mini Sensation the edge. It will be interesting to see where they finish.
I wouldn't consider myself qualified to comment on the weights, other than to say that all 3 have performed well with similar burdens in the past.
I had earlier spent a while looking at Gunner Welburn, so, if I may, I will give my thoughts.
On his penultimate race form, he is all over the winner, but his lto run raises some doubt. His run cannot really be excused on the grounds of the going, or the big field, as he has performed better in similar circumstances previously,so unless some explanation comes to light, there has to be a question mark.

GRAHAM H
Having just re-read your comments re Shotgun Willy, I should point out that 3m on good ground, (IMO), is an inadequate test, and he performed as well fto last year, as could have been expected, under the circumstances.
Red Striker is obliged to run at Haydock, if it is on. I have looked at the race, but there are too many questions for me.
Good luck for today

Determined

As I've said previously, I don't regard the Iris Bleu situation as wholly straightforward, but remember that with VDW it is not just the class of the race, but also the runners in the race. (On the first count, Prominent King's last run before the 1978 Erin did not seem much, but don't doubt that he was a form horse for the Erin.)


Grundy

In my view, Hugo De Gretz is a form horse and (depending on the view one takes of Shotgun Willy) either fourth or fifth in the c/f list. Personally, I think a lightweight above him in that list - Ardent Scout - is even more interesting, but we'll see.

Unless the ground comes up much softer than currently seems likely (or I hear that Shotgun Willy is "expected" - I was so advised in respect of his last run - in which case I'll try to post again), this still looks like a no bet race to me.

Fulham / Johnd,

Thanks for your comments.

Johnd,

I agree with you that Gunner Welburn`s run last time was a major downturn and without a valid excuse for his poor showing any monies placed on him today has to be a risk

The 2.15 Haydock in my opinion is tricky race primarily due to the running of Silence Reigns. Off the track for sometime due to injury but if anywhere near fit he`ll run a big race today before going onto to run well at Cheltenham / Aintree.


Fulham,

It sounds as though you have `inside` knowledge of the Nicholls yard. I`d be very interested in your thoughts on Silence Reigns.

*** given you`re comment on Ardent Scout, I`ve just had a quick look and yes I have to agree this one looks to have a very good chance today and if value is anything backing this one e/w maybe a better option than my initial thoughts, ie - backing both IB and MS.

I`ve got to go out shortly therefore will be unable to spend anymore time evaluating todays racing which leaves me very frustrated on what is an excellent days sport.

Good luck to all,

Determined

Let's consider the realities of the big chase.

In my view, substantially less than half the field are form horses but ON AVERAGE, if Guest's figures are right (and my more casual observations support them) about 30% of races are won by horses that are not form horses.

Crudely, then, we may suppose that there is a substantially better than evens chance that one of the form horses will win today. But has the c/f got a solid claim, and if not is there a solid alternative?

Working downwards, the top five (in ability rating rank) form, or possible form, horses seem to me to be:

Mini Sensation - AR 159
Iris Bleu - 141
? Shotgun Willy - 126
Ardent Scout - 94
Hugo de Gretz - 74

Is Mini Sensation a solid c/f? Up in both actual and relative weight on its three best runs, all three of which have been on heavy. It won by 12l lto, but it is up in class today and seems unlikely to get what seems to be its best ground. As c/f, the most likely winner, but even at 9/1 this doesn't look a quality bet to me.

Iris Bleu faces similar question marks (and the additional one of distance) and is not, for me, an appetising alternative.

Shotgun Willy may find the distance and going will suit, but can we (yet) be sure that he is fully fit? VDW was not put off (in the right circumstances) by long lay offs, and selected numerous horses having their first runs of the season. But I can't recall him selecting one that has missed 80+% of a season, though I am open to correction. There must surely be a question as regards SW in this respect;

Ardent Scout has a lot going for it. Beaten 12l by Mini Sensation lto, but now over a stone better off. Distance should be OK with today's weight, and going should be less of a concern than for MS. But a long way behind the three previously considered on ability. Guest once posted to the effect that, although he sometimes opposed the c/f (as he did with last year's Champion Chase) he rarely went beyond the next couple. That seems eminently sensible to me.

Hugo de Gretz. Like AS, much below the top three on ability. Unlike AS, distance and going may not suit.

IF I was on course, and having a social fiver on each race, as things stand I'd put mine EW on Ardent Scout. But on what I currently know, (heavy rain or news of Shotgun Willy would be reasons for re-consideration) this is insufficiently clear cut for a bet placed with the intention of making money.

FULHAM
Good to see so much discussion before the race, maybe we'll all learn something.
One point about Mini Sensation; although his last 2 runs have been on heavy ground, his form before that shows him to be very consistent at 3m+ on most ground.
Not a bet for me, but g/s may slow the others enough for him to keep tabs, and if (Assuming weight does matter), he has only a couple of pounds more to carry, surely it should be easier to carry 11 5 on g/s, than to carry 11 3 on heavy?

A question of weights.

The weights in handicaps are determined by the Official Ratings.

In Mini Sensations last race the average OR was 131, MS's OR was 136 and his allotted weight was 11-3.

In this race the average OR is 139, MS's OR is now 148 and his allotted weight is 11-5.

This looks as though he is put up 2lbs.

If he was running in this race off his previous OR he would be carrying 10-7, so that is relatively 12lbs more.

The average OR of this race is 139 while the last was 131 so the field is (in the eyes of the hanidicapper) relatively 8lbs better. Another 8lbs to overcome, so now 20lbs worse off than in his last race.

MS is not a bet for me.

By various methods sketchily related to VDW's methodology I am interested in the following:-

Haydock 1.10 Iris's Gift
Haydock 1.40 Goguenard
Newbury 1.50 Got One Too
Kelso 2.55 Vol Solitaire
Newbury 3.00 Keltic Bard/Bernardon
Doncaster 3.15 Springfield Scally
Haydock 3.20 Quazar

Grundy/Determined

David Lyons (who is well connected re the stable) is not recommending any Nicholls' runner today.


Johnd

re Mini Sensation, yes, but he seems to have run particularly well on heavy. He may well win today, but for me a much less satisfactory c/f than Spirit Leader, or even La Landiere, so, like you, I shall let him pass.

Hi all,
Shotgun Willy,Iris Bleu and Mini Sensation to me are the key horses in this race.
looking at the trends only 37% won their last race while 87% were placed. Its also fact that since 1993 no winner has carried more than 11-1.
It seems to be a punter friendly race looking at the winners prices.
I believe that the telephone tipsters are giving Mini Sensation and Ardent Scout.
SW. has won 1st time out twice. Ran 4 times last year without winning. First race was 9L 3rd to Sacville when he didn't jump well over 3m 1f at Wetherby Gd. Next time was 12L to Bacchanal running much better 3m Newbury soft.
He was then pulled up in The Gold Cup 3m 2f Gd. at Cheltenham after struggling with the pace.
Hisbest run was lto when he was 2nd in Scottish National 4m 1f Ayr Gd. Back to his best here. Needs a stiff track and a strong pace.
Iris Bleu, 3 runs this year,opening his account in this country at Chelt. 3m 110yds hc. chase Gd. His next run was his best one winning 3m110yds hc.chase Sandown Heavy. with Frosty Canyon 23L 2nd. Ran against Se More Business lto finishing 9L 2nd with First Gold in 3rd, 3m 1f 110yds listed chase Wincanton G/S.
Mini Sensation, a full brother to Shotgun Willy,hs had 3 outings this year runing below form and finishing 4th over inadequate trip 2m 4f 110yds. Wetherby G/S. won 3m5f 110yds hc chase Gr.3 Chepstow Heavy. seems to need a real test of stamina, Frosty Canyon 4th.
Won lto at Uttoxeter 3m 4f hc.chase Heavy. Jockeys comments were that although he jumped well out of this ground he may jump better on better. Has won at Haydock 2m 4f soft. If he has the pace to run a good clip here he isn't out of it.
Hugo De Grez all best form at Carlisle over 3m 2f on heavy ground.
Wonder Weasel best run was his win at Wetherby 3m 1f hc chase G/S a decent staying performance. Comment was a return to 3m 4f will suit. Didn't stay over 4m 1f lto at Cheltenham soft. His career best have both been at Haydock over 3m on heavy and soft.
Ardent Scout stays all day won well at Aintree 3m 3f hc chase G/S from 6lb out of h'cap. Was 12L 2nd to MS. lto and handicapper may have him now.
Kit Smartie, has won 3m 4f 110yds hc chase at Haydock soft finishing full of running. A bad mistake at the 4th cost him lto 3m 1f 110yds hc. chase Cheltenham Gd. May still be well in here.
With the going change I feel inclined to stick with Shotgun Willy and Mini Sensation here. we know they will stay. They are both class horses. As an outsider Kit Smartie may be worth an interest.
See you soon, Mike.

Determined.

I had a look at your 2 horses at Newbury. I never back at meeting were there are a lot of non runners. One, because the races often don't make sense in the expected shape of the race. Two, how many trainers just let the horse run because they have set out or arrived? Three, what is the TRUE going? Even without all this, I couldn't have backed Gunner Welburn. The price is going to be poor (for me anyway) and his last race was to bad to ignore. The other one you mention, to be honest I have just crossed the meeting out so haven't studied it. Good luck if you do play.

2:10 Newbury.

I have read the comments on this race, and have to agree with most of the thoughts expressed. I make Mini Sensation the 2nd BEST HORSE in the race, and I'm taking him on with Bobby Grant. BG is the BEST HORSE in the race my way, (borrowed from VDW) I think this race will be run at a stronger pace than their last meeting. The going will suit, as will the track,unlike last time, and he very seldom throws in a bad race. I would like the trainer to have shown he is in form. This could be a positive, and the start of the build up for Cheltenham. The price was better than expected (20/1) so I had a little e/w

Be Lucky

Arowson,

An excellent start to the day. Well done.

All,

Just returned home. Haven`t invested any monies today through lack of study time. I`ll just enjoy what`s left of a good day`s sport.

Good luck to all,

Don't know what I was thinking about in the Newbury 3.00!

arrowson,

congratulations, a cracking day's analysis.

Well done everybody and a big well done to Investor who`s earned his new Trainer £860 worth of hay in his first afternoon with the new stable.

Barney/JIB

Thanks.

"Not a genius in winner finding, just a positive and (almost) consistent methodical approach"

AROWSON
Just seen you selections. Brilliant.

Arowson,

Excellent effort.



Mtoto,

We must have been posting at the same time. Hard lines with Bobby Grant.


Cheers,