My 3yo list

Horses raced 3 or less times as 2yo recording a Topspeed figure of 50 or more over 7f or more at Ascot, Doncaster, Goodwood, Newbury, Newmarket, Sandown or York

Admiral Collins
Amandus
Discreet Brief
Etesaal
Hi Dubai
Khanjar
Lundy's Lane
Moonsprite
Musanid
Private Charter
Regal Agenda
Selkirk Grace
Tipu Sultan
Titurel
Tresillian
Unigold
Weavers Pride
Wondrous Joy
Zaide

In fact all qualifiers come from races at Ascot, Newbury and Newmarket.

Best Doncaster horse - Illustrator - 47
Best Sandown horse - Statement - 43

No results at either Goodwood or York were remotely close to qualifying.

arrowson,

have you done any irish horses yet?

Boozer
Yes there's that as well Delboy put it up on van der mail,His last 4 bets have all won,I think it's hovering around 60% and that's without even taking form into consideration,Great stuff.

Investor

But you will lose money over a period of time with a Most Popular Selection type
Scenario

Barney

No, what criteria should be used?

Boozer
At level stakes you will,But there a thing of the past now,I put some figures up for delboy on his thread.Using Max's plan which is quite aggresive i know but nevertheless from a grand starting bank it's now at 3070,You can obviously extract money as and when you like and start again,It really is a good s/plan as long as you can maintain a decent s/r with vdw you can.

Boozer

Yes indeed, and it still makes sense. But I feel more comfortable with level stakes.


Investor

Yes, but Johnson only confirmed what was a reasonable surmise. Cheltenham can be presumed to be the principal objective, so it was reasonable to assume he wouldn't be fully wound up today. And at 8/13 ...


Arowson

I'm compiling my list from Split Second's ratings this year, after using Topspeed's last year. It is a time-consuming business, because the Timecheck 2003 data is unadjusted, and I'm only part way through. But Chief Yeoman shows as a qualifier, from his Sandown run (race 4709), so there are obvious differences between the two ratings.

arrowson,

same criteria but at the irish grade one tracks

Fulham
I would say that a reasonable sumise,Was Classified would win today,Don't scoff at 8/13 Remember little owl,The man himself would have backed this at 1/3 upwards,Guest himself last year Systematic remember that one,Very short but nevertheless a good thing and a good bet ta boot,Guest also mentioned many horses at 4/6 4/7,I'm sorry i'm being a little bit cocky at the moment due to the good run iv'e endured,I'll probably come down to earth with a bang soon,But i see these type of opportunities timme and time again,Even if Jack came on the board and said i was wrong i would still argue that Classified was a good thing today.

Ability Rating

The only race remotely interesting to me tomorrow, the Bet Direct Handicap - Southwell 2.40, gives an example of why ability ratings cannot be taken at face value.

Cd Europe has won 2 races, a 44 at Goodwood in May 2000 as a 2yo, and a 360 at Ascot a month later. Ability rating 202. Those were his first 2 races.

All other horses have AR's of less than 45.

Cd Europe has been off course for 203 days and has never raced over 5f. His only other All Weather appearance was at Wolverhampton in March 2002, and, according to the RP race analysis

quote:

---

seemed not to relish this first experience of sand racing

---

.

His last run he tailed off last of 20 in a D handicap over a mile at Goodwood in July last year.

Has now moved stables.

Top on Ability, nowhere on consistency.

I can narrow it no further than the first 3 in the market, and even than I wouldn't rule out Laurel Dawn, so no bet.

Fulham

Thanks for the confirmation.

Boozer
If you remember guest had a go with the shortest priced method along with johnd,If you evaluate the races there will be days when no bet occurs,The same can be said for the most popular selection,But if it all comes together then there well worth a punt.

Investor

Whether a horse is the class/form horse or not is, sometimes, a matter of judgement, though I think we both agreed today that Classified was the c/f.

What one then makes of a c/f involves further judgements about "conditions". For me, there were the three concerns I've expressed, which were far from reflected in the price. For you any concerns - if indeed there were any - were clearly factored in. That different people reach different conclusions, essentially on the question of value, is surely unremarkable.

Investor

That I accept
If you are skillful enough to pull out the winners and bypass the losers
Then fair enough
I personally dont find the need to meddle with odds on shots when odds against can be found that are just as strong or even stronger
Acceptable risk for acceptable reward and all that

Arrowson

Do you have any other reservations regarding Ability Ratings?

The 'B' list

Same as before but with Topspeed between 40 and 49 inclusive.

Alkaased
Back In Action
Backwell
Bint Alhaarth
Bravo Dancer
Chief Yeoman - Sandown
Crown Counsel
Dame De Noche
Dessert
El Chaparral
Essnaad
Felicity
Financial Future
Illustrator (Doncaster)
Itnab
Moarban
Mujarad
Opera Knight
Risk Taker - Doncaster
Russian Society
Sir Sidney
South Atlantic
Statement - Sandown
Surval
Theatre Time
Tyranny

I am also tempted to include Thingmebob on his only run.

Chief Yeoman was only 1 pt off being the best Sandown horse ahead of Statement.

Still no Goodwood or York qualifiers. The weather was bad on the few days when 7f or more races were run at these tracks.

Barney

And which might those be? (in my finest brogue)

Only The Curragh and Leopardstown feature Group 1 races, and Leopardstown only one of those.

Only The Curragh features Group 2 races.

The Curragh, Leopardstown, Tipperary and Cork feature Group 3 races, but Tipperary and Cork only one each.

So just The Curragh and Leopardstown then? 2yo races over 7f or more.

boozer

They are just a way of focussing on the relative merits of the participants.

Another tweak I do is miss off NHF wins. I don't see why a horse with a couple of bumper wins at £1500 and 2 wins at £5000 (AR 32) should be rated less than an animal that failed to win a bumper (probably beaten by the other) but has also won twice at £5000 (AR 50)

Fulham
Iv'e said my bit,It's time to move off the subject now,Just expressing my opinion.

Boozer
Don't for one minute think i back only odds on,This is far from the full story my friend,I don't fear backing at odds on,And when the situation arises i will plough in just the same.I have mentioned a plan brought to the board by Max,Give it a whirl Boozer,If you have a decent s/r odds on or against it can send your profits sky high.

3yo Irish list

From The Curragh only

Coco Palm
Dame Alicia
Hymn Of Love
Quitte Ou Double
Rapid Ransom
Warhol

AROWSON
A point about C D Europe, and nothing to do with VDW; any horse (Prominent runners apart) running on Fibresand for the first time, will find the kickback a shock to their system. This does not mean they can't act on it, just that they're not used to it. As a former member at Southwell, I have seen some of the clods kicked up, and horses not used to it must think they are being stoned. Not a comment on CDE's chances, just an observation that any regular at either track would confirm.

Investor,
seeing as you are the only one who replied and all you want to be is sarcastic, cos you couldn't find a 10-1 winner in a thousand years.
Shove it,
Swish