Andrew

It is in VDW's article of 18/1/86, included in "The Ultimate Wheil of Fortune", and in the edition I have it is on pages 24/5, under the subheading "A Puzzle to Follow".

Fulham.

I have to agree 100% the articles by Matt Kent and Raffingora make a lot more sense after reading this board. Although I'm not sure they both worked in exactly same way.

Before I go any further I would like to say I have never doubted VDW's honesty. Or for that matter Guest's, he has obviously done a lot of work in studying the examples. My serious doubt is how he has arrived at his conclusions i.e the use of the c/form method for the early examples. My main concern is why did VDW go to all the trouble of explaining the importance of consistent form? Add to this the hours VDW must have spent working the win % of these consistent horses. I have to ask why bother if the c/form is the important thing?

Guest was the person that introduced the expression 'didn't perform as expected' are we now expected to ignore that expression? Without it, (and the c/form explanation) BL being out of form is hard to explain. Sorry to keep going back to this race, but until I can understand it to my satisfaction I can't/ won't move on. To me the doubt's are raised by other VDW articles.

I have had another look at Son Of Loves race, and have to ask. Why are Niniski and Soleil Noir out of form, for that matter Milford (if you overlook his last run on the wrong going).

The mention of Strombolus raises another question (for me). The newest expert to the board said Jim Thorpe couldn't be the c/form horse because his form was from novice races. How then does Stombolus fit in? his last 2 completed runs were in novice company.

A couple of general questions, hope someone can help. Did VDW count walkovers in the ability rating, what happens with dead heats, is the original penalty value taken or half of it, when a horse is disqualified do you count the position it finished in, or were it was finally placed?

Be Lucky

Mtoto

I think the answer re walk overs is provided by the example included in VDW's "A Method not Rules Needed" article (item 35 in my edition of "The Golden Years of VDW"). In the race where Diamond Edge was the selection, Chumson's details are given as prize money won £6,110, races won 5 (including a walk over), ability rating 12. (In fact, either VDW or Mr Peach transposed some figures in this example. The prize money totals are correct, but Chumson had only won four races (including the walk over) and Gandy VI had won 5, so the ability ratings of both need slight adjustment. Not at all material to the conclusion as to the selection.)

I don't know of an explicit VDW example involving a dead heat.

As regards the 1979 St Leger, perhaps others might offer a view, but I again point out that a horse is sometimes a selection when not the class/form horse, as with Guest's selection for the Champion Chase (see his post of 11.19am 13/3/02). In my view, not all VDW's selections were c/fs - Swiss Maid being a case in point.

Fulham,

Some of VDW’s (more obscure) selections weren’t top on class/form, but the task they faced was easier than their last outing. Think about it. If I ran with credit against an in form Linford Christie who had a higher class rating than me, and was then faced with the task of running against an in form Three Legs, who also had a higher class rating than me (obviously not really!), but not as high as Linford, you would expect.........

It may help with some of VDW’s selections. But remember that the permutations are endless.

Lee.

sol,

how can you question form for soliel noir he was last of 13. form? Roushayd NOT.

niniski up in class? magnitude
sol up in class? magnitude

how stetchworth can be 11/1, I dont know.


Happy calculating.

ps
re soleil noir and the actual result. take note of vdw comment re shimshek.

Hello,

how are you?. Happy new year!

Lee

Care to name a few of VDW's selections which weren't the c/fs (except Swiss Maid, the handicap hurdle method selections, and the six from Rivage Bleu)?


Barney

It is a bit misleading to say Soleil Noir was last of 13 lto He actually finished 6th, but was disqualified and placed last (13th). The run was worth more than had he genuinely finished last, but not, in my view, enough to make him a form horse. I agree with you that there is a similarity with the Shimshek example.

Hello Barney,

I'm doing just fine.

How about you?

Absolutely fan f***ing tastic.

nice to hear your views, hope you will stick around a bit to help us all.

Fulham,

just trying to make people look closely.

Barney

The author of the Methodology Group post on Ad Hoc has agreed that I may copy it to this thread, and here it is. I hope you and others find it interesting - I most certainly did.

"As I say, VDW maintained that ratings are only a guide and they were also used for that purpose in his Roushayd method. A method that CH Andy states did not find the Whitbread Gold Cup winner Ad Hoc this year. Well perhaps I can change his view and show him how it was found using this neat method.

The Roushayd method was a way of detecting horses
readied to win by way of equating class, form and trainers intentions together with ratings achieved.

Here then is how I found Ad Hoc, as anyone could have, using VDW's Roushayd method. When evaluating, class comes first so start with
those that ran in the highest class races last time out.

3m 5½f Whitbread Gold Cup Chase Class 725

Class Dist Placing

3100 4m 4f
UR Beau
UR Addington Boy
Ref Dark Stranger
UR Djeddah
PU No Retreat
UR Mister One

600 4m 1f
2nd Ad Hoc
unpl The Last Fling

580 3m4.5f
2nd Jocks Cross
PU Browjoshy

502 3m 1f
1st Whats Up Boys

The six horses who ran in the class 3100 Grand National not only had unfortunate races but had all showed precious little to suggest they were up to this race even before that marathon event. How Beau can be favourite can only be down to the way the majority judge form. He hasn't shown much since running away with the race last year
carrying 10-9. Now he is set to carry 11-10 against some in form class horses. No chance.

The trip and class are wrong for Dark Stranger and Mister One has far too much to find at this level even off bottom weight. Both no chance.

The others from the National warrant no mention at all.

The next on class is 600 (Scottish National) but the Last Fling is the first one flung out. Ad Hoc however showed the tell tale signs of much improvement at Ayr, but let's check his last 3 runs in depth.

Starting on 27th Jan at Doncaster in The Great Yorkshire Chase class 318 over 3m, Ad Hoc started the well backed 100/30 fav in that race carrying 11-8 but weakened after 5 out and was pulled up
at the next. The winner Heidi III, also in this race on 17lb worse terms, has since been dropped in class/dist to collect again and not seen since but now going back up in class and distance.

After 2 falls and a PU in 3 valuable handicaps there is something amiss with Ad Hoc and he has shown he is not ready yet.

But watch what the trainer does. A month later he sends him to Kempton to contest the Racing Post Chase over 3m a handicap class 464. Carrying 10-6 he runs much better held up, then chasing the
leaders 3 out but one paced over the last 2 fences, recording a SF of 111. Racing Post Postmark shows he achieved a rating of 145 and note also he was backed from 8/1 to 5/1.

Again watch what the trainer does. He gives the horse a 2 month rest until tackling an even higher class chase over a significantly longer
distance. Set to carry 7lb more with 10-13 over 4m 1f in class 600 at Ayr (Scottish National) the horse improves again making good headway to chase the winner 2 out, but one paced after though recording a SF of 111 again and a 10lb improved Pmark of 155+. Despite a lay off, going up in class for the 2nd successive time over a longer distance and carrying more weight, this horse has improved again and can now be placed to win. This his trainer does by sending him to a race
where his charge has the best balance of form and class and is now coming back 3 ½ f in trip and carrying 9lb less.

Figure out why Jocks Cross and Whats Up Boys were overlooked to gain more insight into the overall procedure. Also consider why a horse improves or doesn't. Surely if a horse is sent up in class with maybe more weight or even over a longer trip and shows improved form then the prospects of a near future win must be high."

Fulham,

The 'some' come from the area that you've just mentioned in your last post.

Barney,

There's been enough said on this thread already from what I can see. I've been kicking my heels a bit the last few days with the weather as it is. I think I'm away skiing as of next week (should have been last and this, bad timing). I'll let you know how many bones I break on my return!

You've posted since your last post!! So in my post where I refer to your last post, I actually mean the one before your last post!!

.Barney

Sorry you are doing it to me again.

how can you question form for soliel noir he was last of 13. form? Roushayd NOT.

I never mentioned Roushayd, I was talking about c/form. Soliel Noir finished 4th but was disqualified and placed last.

niniski up in class? Won a 198 Group 2 last time out
sol up in class? 4th in a 704 Group 1 last time out, race before won a 470 Group 1

Son Of Love 4th in a 293 Group 2 last time out.

Stetchworth won 38 handicap that's magnitude!!!

Nearly as bad as 2nd in a 6 handicap going into a 90 Championship race. I struggle to see the relativity in that as well.

Be Lucky

thank you very,very much.Well worth the time and effort, in my view.

Please send my thanks and good wishes to the origional author, and perhaps you may be able to persuade him to give us some more of his views in this more congenial enviroment.

race class was 550 not 100 that was for second

I dont know what form you are looking at but it appears somewhat differeent from mine.

Sol- last race g2, class 293, 1m 5 1/2f ,carrying 8-5, soft, placed fourth

nin- last race g2, class 198, 1m 5f,carrying 8-1, good, won

soleil noir- was actually 6th placed last, g1, hdd ,class 704, GOOD.

Barney,

Lost me again!!

I know what the grade of the Leger was, I never mentioned 100. The 90 I did mention was for the Erin.

However I do appear to have made a mistake, Soleil Noir did finish 6th and then placed last. The print is very small and a little hazy. I have to concede as Soleil Noir was beaten further than I thought, he is not a form horse. By the same token I have at least 3 other horses that are in form with higher ability ratings than SOL.

Be Lucky

I can understand the frustration,

without spelling it out, I dont know what really I can say. I am not in the same ball park as guest in that respect.

in vdw's words=tgyovdw,35,para5, sent 1.


hope this helps.

Barney

I'm glad you found the Ad Hoc material of interest. You can imagine what an eye opener it was for me when for ages I thought the Roushayd method was LITERALLY that set out in "Systematic Betting".

As to further contributions, I think the author, and possibly others, might well post (or in some cases resume posting) if there was significant interest in the thread on issues of methodology, using either VDW's examples or current ones like the Compton Commander race as the focus. But time and other reasons make it less likely that people will contribute if the emphasis is on the pre-race postings of "selections" with all that that entails. (And, sadly, at present only Mtoto, you and me seem to be posting regularly on methodology issues.)


Lee

Would it be reasonable for me to conclude that you see most of VDW's early selections, including such as Derrylin, Battlement, Love from Verona, Kings Ride and Son of Love, as c/fs? I certainly agree that some of the later ones don't seem to be. How he found Pagan Sun, for example, to win a class 13 handicap off 11.6 on 20/12/85, with the following record, currently defeats me:

13/12/85 - class 16 hand. 7th, beaten 31 leng, carrying 11.6

25/11/85 - class 12 hand. 6th, beaten 21 leng, carrying 10.13

14/3/85 - class 238, 19th. Beaten quite a distance (exact length unavailable from the Form Book) carrying 11.0.

Pagan Sun may be assumed to have had a degree of ability by virtue of its pre 1985 Cheltenham form. But after the races on 13/12 and 25/11, how did VDW work out that it held a winning opportunity on 20/12? All I know about VDW suggests there will be a logic, but currently I can't find it!

Good luck with the skiing.

I have thought of an analagy that may help.

When studying VDW, it is a dark path we are walking down. Consider ability ratings, as street lamps that light up the road, they help us see a lot clearer where we are going.

BUT THEY ARE NOT THE ROAD.


Fulham, it does my head in as well that.