26 Oct.

Terrible selections! All unplaced.

mtoto
in your earlier post,regarding or,the or of the horse is as important as the or of its competitors,they are both important

Greg,

I hear what you say about the actual OR of the horse. The folk that don't think OR's are important keep banging on they are just a rating, just a guide. The handicapper may have under rated one or two horses in a race but the chances are he hasn't under rated all/most of them.

When I analyse a race (or horse) the only OR's I look at are the ones from the previous races. If my selected horse is within 10 points of the top OR it's a plus for me. However if it isn't it's not an automatic minus I just go back and re check the figures. If a horse with a lower OR wins or runs well it doesn't mean it is a poor horse, it often just means the handicapper hasn't had a chance assess it fully.

Much is made of some with the weight aspect in VDW, I think too much at times. There are examples of horses carrying 15lbs more than in it's last few races. Add to this VDW didn't expect 7lb turn around to reverse a neck beating. Plus VDW said don't adjust the s/f to allow for today's weight, ok the example was a non handicap, but would he adjust for the weight change in a handicap?

VDW said weight was a great leveller and many agree with him. I just think class is an even bigger hurdle than weight. There are countless examples of horses going up and carrying more and more weight to victory. The one thing that stops them is the rise in class this brings about.

Be Lucky

Wednesday, October 27.

Vdw flatrace of the day:

400 Yarmouth, £17.4K , Listed A1 stks, 1m 6f.

My shortlist:
Bowstring
Goslar
Modesta
Opera Comique.


Difficult, but I'll go for Goslar.
Dutching would be my way, if I were betting on the race.

mtoto,
yet another good post,but regarding paragraph 2,you are talking about group races,non hcaps?.
because i think there is a misconception in hcaps,that high or`s are important.
i also agree with the class part as well,there are numerous examples of horses who win regularly in say a class d,and struggle in class c races,the only reason for this is that horses have a class barrier

Result October 27.

Vdw Flatrace.

Modiba won at 3/1.
Bowstring was 3rd at 2/1.

Goslar, my selection, was unplaced, 4th.



The other from the short-list came nowhere ( O.C., top OR 104).

M and B were the others from the top 3 OR; the winner 95, the third 97.
They were also top two RPR.

Nearly forgot to mention that M, B, and OC had all run in a £60K race lto.

I picked the wrong one from the short-list once again, but luckily, I follow Cecil, so did back the winner on Betfair!

Greg,

As I said I don't look at the OR until I make my final selection. However I'm not sure I agree that a good/high OR isn't important in a handicap. I am looking for good horses in good races, and where are most of the good horses found in a handicap? Yes, a few improving horses can get in with a low(er) mark, but I am only interested if that horse is proven in this class or higher. The horse with a low OR is usually unproven in the class, or if it is, it is based on one or two races otherwise the handicapper would have got a grip of it.

To be honest the majority of my best wins have come from the top or very near, of the handicap. It never fails to amaze me the prices some of these horses are allowed to go off at.

Be Lucky

Thursday, October 28.

VDW flatrace:

420 Lingfield, £13.5K, C1, stks 7f.

My attempt at a VDW type selection is

KHABFAIR.

Not well drawn, 6/1 2nd fav in RP betting forecast.

mtoto,
regal gallery and lygeton lad look ok at ling today,high or`s

Seanrua
Khabfair has an excellent chance IMO, with Little Good Bay a danger. Draw not so important over 7f.

28 Oct.

Result VDW type race.

My selection Khabfair was a fast finishing 2nd at 7/1.

Winner was Goodenough Mover, low weight, rifdden by claimer. OR 86.
Won a £9.5K hcp at 33/1, lto.
That day, " trainer had no explanation for the improved form shown".

Khabfair, OR 99, won a £15.7K hcp at Ascot, lto ( 9/2fav).

johnd:
I must be rating in a similar way to your good self now, as I also had Little Good Bay as a contender.
I plumped for the more fancied one on Betfair.

Greg and Mtoto.

Re Lygeton Lad,

I don't think Gay has got hers fit yet.
They're usually a bit burly at the start of the season (AW).

Dunno what's happening about jockeys; Micky Fenton's away to Dubai, and Mongan is supposed to be her stable jockey.
Something isn't right at present.

Investor,

Many thanks for the advice. Sorry you feel like that - you could always laugh at pillocks like myself.

Maybe, just maybe I've learnt something from your posts. I've certainly saved 8 points on top weights, and do now look at the other horses in a race and try to work out what they've done compared with the horse I'm looking at - another 5 points saved.

With my beginners luck and your advice I'm now seven on the trot - it can't continue the beginners luck is going to run out.

I do have to add, it did seem a little pompous your leaving post - just my honest view, no malice intended.

Anyway thanks for the help and good luck to you.

Friday, October29.

VDW type flatrace:

315 Newmarket, £17.4K Listed A1 Stks, 1m 2f.

Very difficult, with nothing outstanding to my eyes.

My selection is BONECRUSHER.

29 Oct.

Result.

Selection unplaced.

Winner was Spanish Don;2nd TOP OR 100, lto won a £75K race at this course, TS 109.
Also C D.

Saturday, October 30.

VDW type flat race:

310 Newmarket, £17.4K Listed A1 Stks, 1m.

Shortlist:
Take A Bow
Tout Seul
Funfair

My selection is TAKE A BOW ( forecast fav).

30 Oct.

Selection 3rd at 6/1.

Result was amended, bu the horse that crossed the line first was joint 2nd top OR and fav, Babodana.
B had come 3rd in a £34.8K at this course lto.

The one promoted to winner had only had one previous race which he won.

mtoto,guest,lee,investor,everyone looking back at todays racing..was very optimistic, a vdw candidate....sir rembrandt,.. any roushayd type profiles running today thanks for any feedback

Theres nothing quicker at shutting this thread down as a tipping challenge.

Obviously as there are only a finite number of original examples, any thread that confines itself solely to those ancient equines will inevitably exhaust itself. So in order to keep itself alive, it must broaden its scope.

The natural developement for a vdw thread should be to accept the challenge of current racing where its adepts can demonstrate the methodologys' delightful subtlties with occasional juicy selections that would of course have the thread humming like one of my beehives.

However as soon as EpiG gets us to put our theories to the test then like a shotgun discharge in a field of crows everyones takes flight up to the gallery! Investor has so got the wind up that after an initial treble that left him as giddy as an apotheosis he has fled the board altogether because his next three selections lost!

The vdwers are the ones who are giving the lie to the myth, for it is these, its dearest upholders, that abandon it as soon as the idea is asked to show it works. If they have so little faith in its properties how can the likes of myself, who find its defects obvious, be regarded as hostile to the subject?

Each time this public abandonment of VDW takes place its credibility gets knocked about. Unfortunately that means that not just the silly ideas get trashed but so do the better ones.

Im not sure how much more the idea can take, especially as Ectoo states most of the ideas had seperate origins and were never novelties until cobbled together (and unfortunately a lot of rubbish managed to creep in too) under the one flag.

VDWers examine your consciences! Are you going to leave Sean holding the colours whilst you hide in your secret forums?

quote:

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If they have so little faith in its properties how can the likes of myself, who find its defects obvious, be regarded as hostile to the subject?

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JIB,

With respect, you, along with many others that continue to knock, by your own admissions, haven't looked properly. Which, to me at least, says it all.