Guest,

Class/form. I am puzzled how this is worked using your method of vdw. I have been back and re read the literature I have on this, sorry to say I haven't a lot. Maybe you could help me out.

I make Magic Combination the class/form horse using your method. He is the class horse backed up by the ability rating (ability = class). The way the ability rating is worked he also must have the form to back it up. I agree he is not a consistent horse at the moment, but as you said. Consistency is not form.

Through The Rye is consistent, but without proven form or ability, using Guest's method. I am not for one moment suggesting that Magical Comination is a bet, but I can't see how he can be deposed as the c/f horse. VDW said ability doesn't fluctuate, it is there for all time. I can't understand how an inferior horse can be promoted over the c/f horse, and then be called the c/f horse. Either he is or he isn't, surely there can only be one. If he fails on consistency, or anything else so be it, but he is still the c/f horse.

Determined.

Once again, right or wrong I made TTR the bet today. Using the same method I have been banging on about. I still say it is based on pure vow thinking, the same method that gave 10 out of 10 in the vdw examples, and the winner of the Champion Hurdle. What I am going to do is log all the selections, forgetting about value, and see how close I can get to the magical 80%

Did I back the horse today? no! I had some family matters to attend to.

Regards

Thanks again. More expense but hopefully it will be worth it.

Regards,

i totally agree with your last post.magic combination was the class horse in the race for me but there were to many factors against weight/going/consistancy to make it anywhere near a probable bet,from an earlier posting of mine you can see my top 3 and ruling out mc left through the rye and mytimie but as stated earlier i thought ttr to be competing above its class.on reflection (and watching the race)what i should have said was the trainer was competing above his class,the horse however had other ideas.here we saw a proggressive horse and i am afraid i let previous form cloud my judgement when assessing todays race which led me to mytimie.
as others on this thread are no doubt aware i am new to the vdw concept and my way of thinking is not in line with traditional vdw,not only does the horse have to pass general criteria so does the trainer.maybe this is not the way to go from a vdw point of view only time will tell.
i must say that after my initial success though i do find it an interesting exercise and will persevere.
max.

Mtoto/others - First off, the Kelso race provided a perfect situation to make a book with the 2 most likely winners highlighted by class and form. At 4/1 the pair it made for a 6/4 winner. Various crosschecks showed TTR as the most probable winner but also that Mytimie could not be totally ruled out judged on his last run. The horses with higher ability ratings had certain factors against. Magic Combination had class, but was out of form and had topweight. The equation is class coupled with form, not class coupled with out of form. Maceo had a higher ability rating, but had finished behind Mytimie 2 runs back before winning a decent value race involving moderate novices. This is where the form part comes in, because many will say that because Maceo won last time it was in form. A study of the form showed it to be dubious and not on a par with TTR or Mytimie. As the form horse with the highest ability rating, TTR was the class/form horse. Bear in mind that form needs to be consistent using this method.

If anyone cares to check the races at all 3 meetings today you will see that the class/form horse was dominant owing to others factors going their way. Carrick Troop and Lady Bear were 2 worthy of attention. It's interesting that in the other races the class/form horse had factors against and duly failed ie Lordberniebouffant & Strong Magic.

Again I must stress that whilst the basics are useful, it is the use of the unrevealed factors that are crucial to finalising a solid selection. These factors are there to be seen in any form book but until the issue is approached in the right way they will remain slightly hidden. I know I keep repeating this, but the clues are there in VDWs text. It's just that he conveyed it in a subtle way so that not many took too much notice. To be fair he probably over estimated us all on the form reading front, but when the answers are known it makes it easy to think that everyone should be able to see them. It's like the much repeated quote from "Who Wants To Be A Millionaire" - It's easy if you already know the answers. Yes it is, but the tricky part is dicovering just what we have to look out for.

Evening Guest or is it good morning,

Lady Bear a bet today ? With the greatest respect to you ( judged on the horses you have considered good investments so far whilst on the thread )I never expected to see such a horse put up as a probable.

Did you actually place an investment today ? If so, a big well done.

For me, day 2 of the flat season on this ground with question marks over the draw I never even gave the race a second look.

Mtoto,

I was going to E mail you with regard the class/form horse in the 2.25 Kelso but I note Guest has already done so and far better than I could have done.

Regards,

Determined - Lady Bear was the class/form horse and one of the 3 most consistent. The ground was no problem and the draw is no where near as important as you may think, in my view. Her last run was an improved effort when raised in class (more ways than one) and despite the decent prize money today, very few had the class or form to be given serious consideration.

Good morning,

Thank you for your immediate response to my comments of last night.

Today is a very interesting days racing and I really hope the thread receives one of your `before` racing summaries.

In particular your thoughts on the 7 TV races will be of keen interest.

I think you know by now that I do not want it on a plate and I sincerly hope you do not think I`m taking you for granted. If so, be frank and tell me so.

Well done again wit Lady Bear. Must go , my Racing Post awaits.

Regards,

guest
re 225k
another question if you dont mind,i also had the same class form horse but had given it the beating of the other two,when i saw moonshine bay here i saw unknowns. sure the form wasnt as good,sure the horse hadn't been tested this high(tried too high?), but it had won well allbeit on a lesser track- he was the one that stopped me betting, i couldnt get classified out of my head.

Morning all,

ORIENTOR has alot of plus` today.

ADIEMIUS - class/form horse and on the numerical picture looks to have a major chance. That said, going in this class has to be a question; distance, yet a/n question ( remember Ile de Chypre - a group 1 horse albeit later couldn`t cope with the drop back in distance ); without doubt a hcap snip but too many if`s. No bet.

2.00 Newbury - factors against class/form horse Colourful Life ? I think so. Who is 2nd on class/form ? For me it is Lussino.

2.35 Newbury - too much conflict for me.

3.10 Newbury - not a race for me

3.40 Newbury - class/form horse; S Nomad and HOA Shindy.

The `determined` novice must go as there is more hard work to do.

Regards,

determined

colour full life has performed very very well with this weight in the past although not in this grade and over the bigger obstacles.

Hello All,

Guest - thank you for todays pre-race post. When I get the time I'll take a good look at them.

I do get confused by the use of the word "form" as in "form horses". At present I can think of 3 definitions of "form horse". There is one that mirrors your response to Mtoto. Another 2 that satisfy a previous post. I think there are 2 definitions for "form horse" each used in a different context.

Barney/Investor/Statajack - When you talk about "a winner in a race" are you all using the same definition? There seems to be a Barney version and an Investor/Statajack version with a big area of overlap.

The Strong Magic race has been mentioned, so can I ask the following question. Was Coastguard a winner in a race?

As ever you can ignore that question.

All the best
hedgehog

I agree with you that Colourful Life has performed very well recently and in effect is set to carry 2 lbs less today ( apprentice allowance ).

Today however I believe is his toughest task to date against better opposition, ie - Ravenswood although having shown nothing to date ( illusion ? ) could be a hcap blot ( well supported this morning ).

Also, who ran in the better class last time, C.Life or Lussino ? For me the latter.

My opinion ( novice ) and who am I to question you who is `on fire` at the moment but I feel C. Life is reaching too high today and yes I am very keen on Lussino.

Good luck,

Guest,

I`ve been speaking to a friend this morning who saw LB`s Wolverhampton run.

I think I now understand what you meant by " more ways then one ".

I`ve always maintained there are 2 form books, ie - Raceform and the one we all should make from what we see with our own eyes.

***** by the way, where are you ?

Regards,

A busy day with probably too many meetings on. In the Lincoln the class/form horse is Adiemus and he is also one of the consistent horses. Upon inspection of the form it looks good in context and the race has been his target for some time.

In the 4.10 at Don the class/form horse is Orientor and again upon inspection of the form it looks good relative to the other form horses.

At Newbury there are 3 races worthy of attention. The 3.10 shows Indeed to Goodness as the class/form horse with Maninga 2nd on c/f. However there is some conflict in the form and given the type of event it's a race to watch. The 2.35 has Luzcadou as c/f and A Piece Of Cake 2nd c/f. Study of the form shows A Piece Of Cake having the better credentials and using another method he comes out as a good thing. The 2.00 shows Colourful Life as the class/form horse with Haditovski 2nd c/f. Looking at the form we can see it has the required credentials and also looks a good thing.

At Fontwell in the 3.50 the class/form horses are Luke Warm & Chosity but there are factors against. Luke Warm looks more likely but not strong enough to bet.

At Uttoxeter Lord O'All Seasons is class/form and things look to go his way. Providing a reasonable price is available he should be taken.

At Bangor the class/form horse is Nosam and again he looks most probable.

No doubt about the class/form horse in The World Cup, but not at the price.

So there are potential bets in a number of races, but not all should be backed. Bear in mind that if 80% of class/form horses won, we could just punt till our hearts content. But they don't all win. It is considering the other factors that shows us when to go in on a class/form horse. That is how a good strike rate is achieved.

Have a good day all.

Just a quick one during this busy afternoon, I think you may have interpreted 'Guests' comment regarding 'raised in class' in more ways than one, not quite right. Have another look.

would any one care to have a look at the new topic on this thread.any comments much appreciated.
max.

bad day at black rock

Barney

It depends on one's expectations.

Colourful Life - not a convincing winner last time out; today trying to win a slightly higher class race off a 5lb higher OR, 12lb higher than just five weeks ago.

A Piece of Cake - out of form lto, just a fortnight ago; today raised in class very slightly over an unproven distance.

Adiemus - some carry turf form to AW and vice-versa, others don't. Simply a gamble as to whether Adiemus would carry his AW form to the turf, albeit one that nearly came off.

Orientor - many questions in this race: the most obvious being how could one be confident that Orientor would beat Needwood Blade in the light of their previous meetings?

Lord O'All Seasons - unproven on the heavy going, again a gamble.

I couldn't, alas, find anything that seemed a worthwhile bet today.

hi there..sorry it took a while to get back to you,in answer to your question,COASTGUARD wasn,t a winner in the race (in my opinion) neither was it a form horse,it had a bit of unexposed form but wouldn,t have been strong enough in any case.regards investor

Is it me or did Guest give out 3 good things
that all lost yesterday.Has no one else noticed
this or am i imagining things?Looks bad to me.
The strike rate now reads 2 out of 6.


Maggsy

Maggsy