Trojan -

Nice quote ! - where is it from - or did you just "conjure it up" ???




Don't worry about the shoot up, the Tribe - Long ago "lifted their tents" and walked into their wilderness, but they keep coming back to peer over the fence to see what "might have been" - they retreat like jackles , when a few stones are thrown at them !!

Welcome to VDW !!

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Hi TC,

Not quotes as such, rather issues of "postmodernism" from "postmodern jurisprudence"

Trojan -

"To thine own Self - be True " !!!!




JIB - Deals with the "Big Words" !!

Barney
If it's so good over there, what are you doing over here. Your face has been peeking over the wall far more than most.
Like most of your posts, it doesn't make sense.
Good to see you've learned something from Fulham, though.
Your welcome to his world.

YUP !!!

Jib
I would hazard a guess its to see if any of us have found the "key" as none of them will have.Do any of them realize they are like a fox in a hen run on this forum, welcome in small doses for novelty value only, but oh! what am I saying they have had three winners today all proofed after racing-should we roll out the red carpet & welcome them with open arms-dont think so!!!!lol

JIB,

I think you should at least get the facts right. There may well be a CD, but as far as I know it only contains some not all of Guest's posts. This tape was made well before the folk left, for that reason it is not complete. It wasn't made as you suggest because the thread was coming to an end. Nor did the thread stop for the reason you would have some believe. It ended as you know well because of the mindless abuse.


I don't agree with the posting that was posted today, it was only to wind some up. A pointless stupid idea, but no more so than other posts on here. I don't subscribe to the Dosage method/idea, you do. I didn't come on to your thread and take the p*ss, I just read what you had to say and asked a few questions. When contributors to this thread came on and made wild statements about having winners, they were taken to task on more than one occasion. When people asked questions in the main they were treated with respect and some tried to answer them.

I don't agree with every thing Guest and others came up with. I do believe they genuinely believe their ideas are correct. I don't, but that hasn't stopped the discussions. They didn't dream up the c/form idea, it is a VDW idea/formula. I think it works, I just think it is being applied to the wrong horses. They are happy with the a/rating, I'm not. It wasn't how VDW found his selection in his first example. VDW says it is a simple way to judge ability, he didn't say it is the only way.

There are many things that can be discussed, and I do agree that the best way to do this is with a variety of people with differing ideas. To have a discussion both parties must have a base to work from, the trouble with VDW is that base can only be the old examples. This is because they are the only VDW selections we can be sure of, when recent races are discussed we can only guess at the possible selections. To go into any detail, all the VDW literature, and at least some old form books are needed. I think you will find most who are serious about VDW have accumulated these items. It can be more than a little time consuming to explain what is going on to someone who hasn't got them. If I wanted to discuss the Dosage method with you in any depth I would first read and try to understand all I could before starting the conversation. I would do that out of respect for you, and the time you would spend on the answers.

Finally I am no genius, but I do think Fulham, Guest and a few others have gone into enough detail that their selections for recent races can be worked out. That's not to say I will agree with them, or they with mine.

Be Lucky

One thing I would say is that of the "VDW disciples" who posted before leaving, some did at least put up selections before the off, none of which gave any of them an acclaimed authority to lecture any other peeps interested in VDW methodology about any letters VDW had a sentence in which could be made to to invalidate anyones selection, thats the main issue here.
To have the guts to post up a selection & be wrong about it is no shame, for f*ck sake the man himself got 17 selections out of 100 wrong(supposedly).I dont assume to know every little detail of the method, but on the 80% thread if anyone cares to look will see that I was not in the 80% category, only pipedreamer was, but I had the highest ROI with 6 out of 17.
The point I am making is that peeps who at least had the gumption to post up losers have more respect than the certain Induviduals who refused to post up selections PRE-RACE in order to preserve their self empowered dictatorial rights to preach to people who did, the professor being the main protaganist.
BIO

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Mtoto

"Nor did the thread stop for the reason you would have some believe. It ended as you know well because of the mindless abuse."

You might wish to consider the reason for most of the abuse was stupid postings such as Barney's, and since he, and other 'after timers' such as Fulham and Guest took their leave, they are almost non-existent.



"There are many things that can be discussed, and I do agree that the best way to do this is with a variety of people with differing ideas."

You may also wish to reconsider the above, particularly in view of the way in which this thread was pillaged by your associates for purely selfish reasons.


Those are the real reasons behind the problems this thread experienced, that those days may be behind it now is evidenced by the number of drowning rats clambering back on board.

JIB,

To answer some of your points.

This CD as far as I know, is just a copy of Guest's posts. I have never seen it, I have no idea who made it. If anyone is that interested all they have to do is go through the old postings and cut and paste the relevant articles. I did this just to keep track of some of the disagreements, I would think many others with a real interest did the same. Someone decided that Guest was coming up with that best ideas, and he was/is the man to follow. Even if he is wrong, he has a working example of a person who has put in a lot of work. The articles are still there if anyone else wants to put in the work and copy them.

It is a little unfair to say no one has solved the PK example. I think there are at least a couple of explanations on this thread. Those examples go into a fair amount of detail, and as this race is well known the form of most is there for all to see. I think if PK is put into search it will confirm this. Whether you agree with the solution is another matter. If you don't could you explain why?

Recent races. While much has been written about Attraction, some of it very good and logical. The fact remains we don't know for sure if she would have been a VDW selection. If VDW kept to strict rules she may have been, he didn't. I don't think she would have been a selection because Soviet Song was too close in the ratings. The idea is to find out how VDW worked. Taking the Attraction race apart is an interesting exercise, it many further our ideas on racing in general, but will it improve our knowledge of VDW thinking? If you want to do that, and haven't the form books there are races in the Racing Post data base. I don't seem to remember many of those being brought into the discussions by the folk without the form books.

Johnd,

I have said I think the recent posting was stupid, and served no purpose. It wasn't abusive, I think yours is far more abusive. Why are people 'rats' because they don't do as you want them too? How have they pillaged this thread, have they deleted postings, been abusive or disruptive? No all they did was to refuse to play the game as you and a few others wanted. They were more than happy to explain how they thought it worked. Yes, there was some after timing as you call it, but not by the people you mention. Fulham only mentioned a horse he thought was a good VDW example. He mentioned it because he wanted those who were interested to examine that race, nothing of importance had changed the facts were there for all to see. It was a recent race, most would have had the papers and form to hand. Instead of looking and learning, some jumped up and down claiming after timing. When challenged Fulham was more than happy to prove he had backed it. So to me the anger was more about not sharing his winner than the methods employed finding it. More could be learnt by looking at the race than by just giving a name of a horse to back. Guest posted many pre race selections. so he doesn't fit into that group.

As you say the abuse has stopped but so had the postings. However I feel sure you will correct that with the tone and attitude of your postings.

Be Lucky

JIB,

I’m not sure ‘well done’ is in order as all I did was leave the race alone!

I posted about the chances of Imtiyaz in hope to confirm to those who remain starry eyed about the basic consistency and ability ratings, that there is more to the method than meets the eye.

But that should not be ammunition to those who oppose the two ratings mentioned above as VDW stated many times that people weren’t going the full journey.

“A variety of excuses has been used to mask the failure of my methods – the “key”, the “last piece of the jigsaw”, the “missing link” all come down to the same thing. Many create the numerical picture and say they are stuck and don’t know how to select from the three probables”

It is a logical process, but the main point here is that VDW reiterated once again the importance of consistency in reminding us, not for the first time, that he was selecting from only 3 probables. Surely those who cannot grasp these basics have no room to lodge complaint?

Mtoto

I see your perspicacity has not improved for your absence!
Tc's quote sums it up well, 'To thine own self be true'; some of us are, some of us aren't.


Back to the more serious stuff.
Tillerman is a horse I love to bits. However, he needs some bounce in the ground to show his best.
That should leave the way clear for Salselon at what looks a very respectable price.

The only one to have found the KEY was Mr Davey. He didnt solve VDW but he sold it.Turning the myth into his own 'pot of gold.'

Mtoto,

I cant remember where or when on the thread (it is now so long it really needs an index!) you asked how the PK example was made to fit.

If my memory serves me correctly you asked the question on several occasions; but I remember that at first you never got an acknowlegement.

By insistance you managed to initially get some guff about not being prepared to give away the secret.

When asked again I believe the answer you got you did not find satisfactory. In the end I believe you let the matter rest because you know that PK cannot be explained by Dr Bacon or Guest, not because of their incompetence in the subject as a whole but because they have got one (important) part of it wrong.

If all those months ago they had simply put their hands up and said they didnt know the answer to your question, none of the unpleasantness that arose from trying to defend an untenable position would have followed.

Perhaps if our absent colleagues would like to return they may like to remember that no one has a monopoly on the truth.

JIB,

As I suggested I think if you put PK into the search facility using Guest and PK you will find the post where Guest explains how he works the race. The long and the short of it is BL has to be a non form horse for it to work. If he isn't so classified, he would be the c/form horse using the later explained a/rating. I think Guest and Fulham firmly believes that is the correct way to work the example. So why should they admit to (or hold their hands up) to anything? They then work all their races based on this. Fair enough it is reasonably logical, but is it how VDW worked the race. I don't think so, he didn't say BL was not a form horse. He said it was well out of it on his ratings, a slight but big difference. We all know VDW wasn't prepared to explain his other ratings, but we do know when they are shown the selection is top on both columns. I think it is excepted one of these ratings is speed in one form or another. I can make BL well out of it using speed, but not just a bare speed rating. Who is right, I think I am, many don't agree?

How does any of this explain the nonsense that then appeared on this thread? Three different people came to two different answers to a problem. Their way works for them, mine works for me. Didn't VDW say Jock Bingham was well on the way to solving the puzzle? I haven't studied Bingham's work, but what I have seen in some cases he seems to have yet another idea how the methods work. Personally I think the whole idea was to get people to stop and think before they backed horses. To use a method of gauging ability, to back improving or consistent horses. Most of all to try and think about why the trainer placed the horse in the race, but to confirm for yourself the trainer has the raw material, and isn't tilting at windmills.

I think Nessie has hit the nail on the head why people will never explain in any great detail VDW on any message board. If the interested parties at least armed themelves with the required books, there would be no need to go into detail. As Johnd doesn't seem to understand this could he explain why his selection today lacked in the basic requirements? It was neither consistent or improving. The winner was both. I think that says enough.

Be Lucky

You get a great laugh on here almost as good as Pilly`s "SUPPLIES" ditty on the Adult Humour Thread lol.
Anyway i was sat watching the 5-10 Nottingham race on telly & noticed that Jakarmi`s jockey went for home just after the 3f marker?.
Noticing that he was fav for the race i went straight to the Racing Post Online to look up the form of his last two victories. On both ocassions they timed his challenge at the 1f pole or thereabouts.Why change tictacs today then?.
I see that ol`e chestnut Beacon Light has raised it`s head again & wondered if the riding instructions employed in defeat against Sea Pigeon prior to the erin gave a clue as to the condition of the horse going into the race?.Im sure i read somewhere that he went for home a lot sooner at Sandown than he had previously in earlier victories.
It may just be coincidence right enough?.

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