I was the Ikhtyar supporter.

At least I've not gone totally mad

Thanks for clearing that one up!

Jib
Re World Beater

I would expect Muffin to prevail, but why on earth would the Derby 2nd's owner run his horse over 5f, unless it was to sharpen him up for the 1 mile rematch.

garstonf - re Muffin -

pleased to see that at least one - "New Contributor" - appreciates the "Gravity of the Subject " !!!



tc

Lee
Thanks for the reply. Apologies if I confused your train of thought with others on this thread.
I totally accept that that was your position before the race, and I am reasonably certain that I understand why you thought so.
We will have to agree to differ on this one,as Salselon obviously didn't uphold the form, though others that ran in both races,( Hurricane Alan & Bowman's Crossing), did.

Some thoughts concerning ratings...

I think the Ability Rating is just that. A rating. Mr. Van Der Wheil was clearly happy using it, so are many others who hope to replicate the claims.

But many others are not happy with that particular rating. John has used the Donkey champion of Brighton Beach, (which by the way is all stones – no sand – very harsh on race-day hooves ) to illustrate why this rating doesn’t work for him and that’s fine.

IMO, the Ability Rating was the "rating cornerstone" he used to assess class. But does that mean we HAVE to use it? The purist will say “yes, absolutely”, but I’m not so sure. I think that misses the point. After all, he was willing to reveal that rating method without hesitation. But when asked how he calculated his other ratings, he became very commercial! What might that tell us? Also, he looked for a horse to be within the top 3 on Ability, but the other ratings seem to need the selection to be top 2.

To become a selection, the horse had to be backed up by these other ratings. In other words, he used three ratings, and they all had to broadly agree that this horse was top or thereabouts.

Now consistency. The adding up of the last 3 places actually gives you what… a rating! So in other words, he used FOUR RATINGS. If they all broadly pointed to this horse as being the selection, then “other factors” are considered. So whatever ratings work for you, you just need to use them to help identify the potential selection.

Consistent form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners

Would people agree with my brief comments on these four:

1. Consistent form -recent winning or placed or well positioned in the last 3 outings. Perhaps adding up the numbers as he wrote about. (Although sometimes hidden perhaps by 1oth but beaten 3L). But we know what he meant I think)

2. Ability is the Ability Rating, and I think backed up by his other ratings.

3. Probability. The presence of the horse in the first 5 or 6 of the betting forecast. The better the form figures (111), the more likely the winner.

4. Hard Work. That’s you and me dredging through the form pages for an hour or two, either with or without a pocket calculator to hand!

Which leaves me with Capability…

I’d like to hear what people regard as the “other factors” he wrote about as this is to my mind the capability thing – and probably where the key, missing link, or as I like to think of it… “the piece of the bloody jigsaw no one can properly explain - if it even exists at all that is”!

Is it weight, speed, going, course, comparison to other horses based on the aforementioned factors, etc. etc. I think these all to a greater or lesser extent make up “Capability”. In particular weight and speed both today and in the previous race. And not just of our nap, but also how these factors may affect all of the contenders.

Anyway. That’s where I am with it. No, I’m not achieving an 80% strike rate. Lucky to stay in the 40’s. In fact, lucky to get a winner at the moment. I backed a horse today who was 25/30 lengths clear and easily the winner all over… except it fell. I don’t like chases at all.

I would be interested in any comments from others who have studied this method for longer as to their comments and opinions on any of the above.

BlackCat

Blackcat thankyou for that post.
VDW asked us to watch what a horse did or did not do in the last 2 furlongs of a race & said that this would (provide the answers).In the Spells It All Out articles (TGYVDW) he also speaks of the Schools Athletics Champion meeting his Waterloo if faced with Olympic standard opposition?.

Hi WP

Yes, the class factor of the school champion example is what I think the ability rating helps to pinpoint.

I do recall the comments concerning "what a horse does or doesn't do in the last 2 furlongs". This I have taken to mean coming to challenge, making a race of it, or at least making 'headway'.

Of course, with a horse with 211 figures up against a horse with 121 figures, trying to apply that comment goes out of the window. And indeed sticking to top class races will produce that scenario most of the time. And that's where "other factors" need to be analysed...

It's all very mysterious isn't it? But I'm sure it's not at all mysterious really. In fact it's probably obvious! And I wouldn't be surprised if we have already discussed it.

How close do you feel you are to "solving" the puzzle WP?

BlackCat

ME! Im probably miles away Blackcat but ive always found merit in most of the posts of them that dont think they have anything to offer but are miles ahead of the dictionary brigade who dont know the ears from the arse.

JIB,

You really should stop walking around with your pants down, your argument about the TIME available in which VDW had available to STUDY a race really shows your arse. VDW stated at the TIME that he only bought the sporting chronical for ONE reason, the cards were published days in advance, that gave him plenty of TIME to study the races.

Black cat,

A while ago I started a list of hidden factors for evaluating VDW’s methods if you have TIME go back and find them. I think I was up to about 37 back then there will be little surprise That I now think that there are about 60 but I’m still looking and finding more all the TIME.

Barney,

Thank you for commenting on my post.

Most people I know dont bother with 5 day cards not least because of the inevitable large number of withdrawls, but also because of the uncertainties of the going, was this not a problem for VDW? Or did he keep his arse hidden in another secret way?

Barney: What's the point in BlackCat going back to look? you've never said what the factors are.

Neither Barney nor Guest ever gave a single example of a "hidden factor" so one really still has no idea what they were on about. I got the impression that Guest tacitly admitted the whole "hidden factor" farce was ill advised wool-pulling, I cant imagine why Barney's dug this nonsense up now.

Maybe he's saying it's all about race times? "Time" in upper case twice and "60" as in seconds or minutes.

BlackCat
In reply to one of the points raised in your last post,abilty ratings.I believe the whole concept on how VDW suggested you arrive at abilty ratings to be flawed from the outset and until this is corrected you be left struggling to build on the basic foundations which in turn will lead you into the winners enclosure.Until anyone who has read all the blurb written by him are willing to question the issue raised and change their thinking on how to rate a horse they will be left chasing their tail.

Barney
I remember the 37 "hidden factors",but you posted nothing of note.I would be surprised if you were able to list a half a dozen original ideas of your own without the VDW CACPH old pony.

I remember PKBoy asking if id found IT?.Prior to the King George Kempton 2003.He was relieved when trainer sent the horse to Ireland if memory serves.

I remember PKboy as another of the thorough going twats this thread has been plagued with virtually since it began.

Jib

I used to follow lists of horses based on Stewart Simpson’s handicap quickeners. The problem with my VDW “good things” (losers) is they are all short prices. At least with the handicappers I could get a 10/1 winner, which I find impossible using VDW.

In Great Britain the local evening newspapers have always had the next days racing in them, but to trawl through the form books to calculate ability ratings would have been a mammoth task. So VDW must have used a racing daily, the Sporting Life or the Sporting Chronicle. “The Butterfly” used to read his Sporting Life over breakfast and in his chauffeur driven Rolls Royce on the way to the course. VDW used to read his before sailing off to the Caribbean.

BlackCat

VDW gave us Consistent form as a rating. He gave us Ability as a rating. It makes sense that his other 2 ratings might just be a Capability rating and a Probability rating.