this is very difficult to explain,the best way to do it would be to post up a race for me to look at and ill run you through the horses.
any time over the xmas period,but not tomorow,out on the lash in an hour.preferably a race which is not top class and under 10 runners,it will be quicker for me to run through.

i will do it before the race is off as well

Scent Of Victory's defeat today, unfortunately provides an excellent indication of what happens when you step outside the perameters of VDW's formula.
Although the horse won well over C/D lto, it was a slowly run race in lower class.Because of the ease of its win, I presumed that today would be no problem, and the horse came into the straight going by far the best, only to fall into a hole. He simply didn't stay this distance in this class, and I paid the price for ignoring the signs in his two previous runs. All the other factors were in place, which is progress, anyway,
but I must keep repeating to myself,'No element of gamble must be allowed to creep in'.
At least Chicuelo won, and in the process reinforced my long-held belief, that weight is far less important than the factors VDW laid out for us many times.
2 winners out of 5 is just not good enough, and I will shortly be taking a break from this thread to polish up my new skills, I am now more than ever certain that VDW's strike rates are well within reach, and will hopefully come back and prove it to the sceptics.
For interest the other 2 losers I posted were Ross Moff, which, because of a good run over too short a distance, I presumed had returned to his best after injury, which proved to be a mistake on my part, and Old Feathers, which ran far too badly to begin to understand. Time may tell on this one.
For the 'Dutchers' it may be of some interest that all 3 races were won by the clear second choice, but I firmly believe that dutching is not necessary, particulary at the short odds these races represented.
If there are any selections tomorrow, I will post them, and whatever happens to them, I will do one final post on Sunday.

Regards
Johnd

Greg i will choose a race for you to look at next week sometime within the guidlines you have requested thanks for offering to help, i might have a bash at it with you.

After the discussion of trainers and their placing of horses, has anyone any thoughts on the placing of Hugo De Grez in the Newcastle 2.15 on Saturday?

This will be his first trip over hurdles since April 1999.

After two good wins in handicap chases this season, after unseating his rider in his opening race, putting in an improved performance when upped in class lto, is now dropped considerably (133 to 67)

His hurdle rating is 105 compared to 126 for chases and so he runs off 10-1 in this race instead of the 11-8 he would have had if it was a chase.

2/1 looks remarkably generous to me.

I had a look at this one earlier and my initial thoughts were similar to yours. However it is a long time since he last ran over hurdles, and even tomorrow's C/D may not be enough of a test for him. Good luck if you back him.

Arrowson, if the meeting goes ahead he will take the beating in this race the way the weights are scaled of that i have no doubt.

After your first two selections I thought you had it cracked, but your others were miles different.

also have you give up on placement? the feller today owns a young improving three yr old, which didnt come out at two, he had one runner at the track, booked the best jocky at the track and travelled in excess of 250 mile. to top it all he had dropped it to carry a lot of weight last time to see how good it was.

The prize was plenty big enough. He must have had his eye on the best race on the card for some time.

from a vdw point of view yours was out of form.

Statajack - A very good point re trainers and a reminder to us all. Anyone arming themselves with the majority of the info VDW gave us should be able to see through most of trainers wishful thinking.

Only part of VDWs methods are reliant on basic training methods. Training racehorses or riding them for that matter is a totally different skill to picking winning racehorses. Too many punters put almost blind faith in well known trainers and jockeys opinions. This is nothing new of course and it will probably always be so by the nature of the game.

JohnD - Amongst the real contenders in Chicuelos race, the weight spread was very little really as I noted. It wasn't necassarily the physical weight carried that let it down for me, more the presence of Galant Moss. It was a borderline case much like earlier in the week at Bangor in my view, but I wonder how many who lumped on at a shorter price at Cheltenham were on today?

Hopefully the reasons for setting a price is obvious to everyone and it is an important part of the process. Baracouda didn't jump too well today and hasn't impressed in both races now. The last race could be excused due to the pace, but todays raises some alarms. let's see how the horse is placed in the future and just as importantly when.

Guest what is your view on how we should approach the problem of rating one performance against another, to find the horse best in for the race in question, how many ratings do we need to take into consideration to find the answer everyone would need? .

Hugo De Grez does not have a great record at Newcastle:-

16Jan99 (first ever race) Class 21 Juvenile Novice Hurdle 16f - 7th of 8
19Jan00 Class 30 H'cap Chase 24f - 2nd of 16
16Feb02 Class 377 H'cap Chase 33f - pulled up before 5 out

However most of his races are run at Carlisle, another stiff track, so I reckon the heavier the going the better, because in those conditions he should out-stay the rest.

Strangely he is also entered for the following:-

26Dec Wetherby - Rocom H'cap Hurdle (Class C) - 23f
27Dec Wetherby - Rowland Meyrick H'cap Chase (Class A Listed) - 25f

Still looks like a good bet to me

Sorry, did not mean to ignore your response.

I wish all Geordies a tropically balmy night!

Investor

In the matter of the 1988 Mackeson, I'm assuming you judge Pegwell Bay to have been a good thing. I'd be interested to know why - only in general terms of course. Was it, for example, through your second numerical picture? Then I'll tell you my conclusions.

Your having a laugh! The horse may have been 'out of form' your vdw way, but not from any common-sense approach. The horse simply didn't stay at this level, and if you read his form the logical way, it entirely supports this view.

1.55 Uttoxeter

Gumley Gale looks too big at 20/1.

Had a good win against Young American over C & D
who has gone on to win a 10K race at Haydock this season. GG next run was on firmer going which didn't suit. Had 2 runs this season R/H (looks to prefer left) plus going and then trip also not right. Now back at Uttoxeter off a lower mark than the Young American win.

3.40 Uttoxeter

Not looked at this race in detail yet but Sossus Vlei appears well in off 110 - the form from 9th Feb 02 looks good.

Yes it was through the second picture,That one could differnciate pegwell bay from the rest of the field,Everything was bang on for the horse on the day in question,If you look beyond that day you will also see (hopefully) that vdw was right when he said the horse should win again.

Due to other circumstances I have only evaluated certain cards today. At Ascot I can see 2 good bets in 1.20 Dark N Sharp and 3.00 Tarxien.

At Lingfield 2.55 Brilliant Red is more than capable under this sort of weight and looks a good thing to me.

Have a good day all.

SEEBALD 1.20 A


( Unless the going is any worse than soft).

Luck to all

From my limited understanding of the methods,Tarxien should be a good bet.The only slight reservation is the trip on the track.

This race could prove a good example of the case for/against OR's within vdw methods.Scots Grey O.R. of 132,Tarxien O.R. of 115,yet giving 2lb to Scots Grey.It should prove interesting.