"I seldom consider a horse that excelled lto".

I am not really sure what your point is. Are you saying that a horse should not be considered if it ran well LTO? Do you make a profit from this tactic? If so I would like to see a draft of this plan as it would be a gold mine!
All of VDW's examples were of horses showing improvement, or of ones that had been put up in class for fitness. Trainers frequently bring a horse to the boil on the racetrack and in doing so there will be a sign of improvement somehow through ratings, placings or speed figures. How on earth do you pick them if not?

Sulamani ran 10 lb below its best LTO and for that I would not consider it a bet. It has in fact lost to Bindari.
At this level with the class/form horse you want them to be running to within a few pounds of their best.

I am in fact quite naive and this is a genuine question. Is this thread about VDW or racing methods in general or a bit of both?

I have posted in the hope of saving people money on some favourites that are tipped as class/form bets when, for the reasons I have given they are not banker bets.
Hopefully there will be a big bet coming up as the bookies are winning the battle with the peoples favourites at the moment.

Snow Knight,

Interesting question, but what is VDW about? He gave us some methods, as well as hints on how to look at racing in general.

When many of these examples are looked at, they show horses that didn't always perform to their best last time out but were consistent. Another method showed us how to find a horse coming to its best. All the methods are based on sound general racing knowledge, wouldn't you agree?

Although JIB's main aim seems to be to deride VDW. I do find it annoying that in many cases I can follow his logic. I do wonder if he ever took of the blinkers he could see that in some cases there is very little between their thinking.

As you say a good many short priced possible VDW type selections have been beaten lately. I would venture to say that in many cases these selections had negatives that would have stopped them being VDW selections. True many that have turned the methods into systems will have come unstuck, but that wasn't VDW idea. The only one I'm not sure that VDW would have rejected was Attraction as any outright bet. I think he may have coupled her with Soviet Star as she also had a lot going for her. I would never have taken the short price on A, because I had SS to close to her. This is where I agree with JIB, I think A bounced. Her last race was a much better performance than ever before, in fact to good. It improved her s/f by 5 points, equal to 5 lengths. No horse can keep improving and not feel the strain, without being rested for longer the she was given between runs. Why run her then? She had one horse to beat, was that horse going to perform to its best? If it didn't would A have to be at her best to win? I don't think the owner and trainer ever thought what about the people that may back her, why should they? Even in defeat they have picked up £44,000, and what have they lost?

I don't know if VDW knew about the bounce factor, but if he didn't he would have learnt. I think if you go back, and look at the s/f for those involved in the recent races you may not have been so quick to make them VDW selections at the prices.

Be Lucky

VDW or not

I am not a great fan of the Much advocated C/Form Method - but I have great regard for his suggestions regarding following a Trainer !!

For example today - It was absolutly inconcevable that Sir Mark Prescott would allow his first runner of the season be defeated !

His Pride would simply not allow that !!

Pick a few Trainers and follow their methods - ( did VDW write that ?? )

tc

Again - welcome back Mtoto ! - I enjoy, when you contribute positive postings !

All the while ones opinion is that ratings will give them the answers to VDW, progress will not be made.

It is the trainer that will give you the answers, which are there in the formbook. It is how VDW judged that the trainer/horse were really out to win that is, in my opinion, the crux of the matter. What a horse does will depend on where the trainer sends it next. However, as VDW pointed out, there are trainers and there are trainers.

Attraction would NOT have been a selection for VDW: the price being just one negative. CLASS is king pin and ALWAYS needs confirming. The race was one to leave alone.

As to Sulamani, without doubt the class form horse in the race, but was the prize big enough for the horse to be really out to win? The answer to the question was actually confirmed in the race; the horse wasn’t given a hard time. If the Godolphin camp had wanted to win that race today with Sulamani they could have done easily, however, the formbook told us otherwise, and the going had nothing whatsoever to do with defeat.

Anyone watching CH4's coverage of today's race should have little doubt as to the trainers intentions. Simon Chrisford said, before the race, " We are desperate to get a run into him before the King George".
It is wrong to assume that VDW selections are automatic, it is also wrong to assume a selection must have run to its best lto.

I would agree with what has been said about recognising when a trainer is placing a horse to win. VDW gave Roushayd as an example of that.
There have been some very valuable posts today its a wonder that in a few more days we will all be agreeing with each other and there will be no need to post at all!!!
I don't think that a horse has to run to its best LTO, but not too far short of it in a big prize non-handicap. Attraction for example had a series of 4 wins where it only dropped a few points in the ratings at one stage. It is not the main factor, but I think something to be considered if you are having a big bet.
It will be fascinating to see if Sulamani wins next time out.

JIB,

Are you saying VDW was talking sense, but some of his followers have got it slightly wrong? I have to say I don't think many who have got to grips with it treat horses like machines. If some do, how does that reflect on VDW? I hear what you and others say about the trainers, and looking to see the main aim. That then raises the question is the trainer being realistic? If you take Sulamani, I think we all know the target for him. I can see they wouldn't beat him up for today's race, but if he is going to win one of the big ones should they have to? If he could have won today they wouldn't have stopped him, what reason would they have had? A win wouldn't have meant more weight, and I don't really think they are interested in getting a better price on the day. So with horses like this the only question can be is he good enough, the trainer may think so? Is that enough for VDW, I don't think so, he wants to know if the horse is good enough? How did he tell us to come to that conclusion, you judge the horse by what it has achieved on the track, and only that? So you only follow the trainer if you are sure he can win the targeted race. Are you following the trainer, or the horse?

TC,

I think the c/form idea is to separate these horses. All he has done is shown us a logical way to choose between several horses running in the same race. These horses should have all fulfilled the main criteria(s) so you have to choose one or leave the race alone. It wasn't an idea dreamt up by some, it is there in black and white and explained by VDW. It doesn't matter how the horses are found, from a list or just taking any race. If there is more than one horse, how do you split them?

SK,

We all know where Sulamani will go next, unless he is injured. We all know he will be tuned to the minute and trying to win. At his VERY best is he good enough, that we won't know until we see the field?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Sorry for butting in but i think they want the horse fit and sound to tackle the forth coming Group 1 race,

Could the horse have put to much effort to win this race today?

I think he will be at his best next time as they can now finish preparing him for the race

Mtoto

'xactly - first sensible reply I have seen on the subject !

C/form is a first stage in the selection process

NOT ! an end in itself !!!

We now have - a -List of Horses - But _ How do you split them ???

Still - Trainers intentions I think !!!

Degree in Psychology required - I think !!!

I for one cant get to look into any of the other forums, but then again I have got enough on my plate catching up with this one, my fear with following this and understanding it, is that by the time I get up to speed everyone will have gone home.

And can anyone tell me where I can find this my space /permissions page.

JIB

Congratulations! If you can make a profit that way then I salute you. I can not access the rest of the forums(and don't know how to) I would love to see how you choose them.
Why did you pick the 20-1 first time out?

(None of the above is sarcastic it is really meant. If you are ahead of the game well done)

JIB

I forgot. VDW used to keep lists and then decide when the trainer was placing them to win. Perhaps you are a lot closer to his methods than you think!!
Just an amusing thought,
I must get my beauty sleep

Mandarin,

Here (I hope) is the link to the thread on the Open Forum where Gummy has posted the what I believe are the latest requirements for full membership:

/groupee/forums?a=tpc&s=800602078&f=8786000045&m=395106878

SK,

Here is the post I made about the Passing glance race:

9 Qualifiers tomorrow!

Muqbil 250D is the class horse in this race and is owing a win for his stable. But I am finding too much to quibble about. Hes not proven at the distance, nor do his sire stats excite at 10f. Hes never run on good, a going his sires progeny have not shined at. But he should have liked the g/s lto but came 8th. The fc Evs looks poor value. No bet.

Gateman 300E is a great horse and always has to be respected. Hes returning to this race after winning it last year, the going is the same as is the jock. His OR is down a lb though his weight is up three. Last year he was drawn 9 this year 10. He seems particularly fond of Epsom and you are unlikely to find many horses that will fight so hard to win money for you. A bet.

Vanderlin 300E qualified for the register over 7f on g/f. A mile and a half doesnt lok ideal for him which is the furthest hes ever been and by Halling the sire stats drop markedly from 8f to 9f. Hes still 6lbs above his last winning mark. No bet.

Passing Glance 300E also won over course, dist and going this time last year, though in the hcp. Hes now up 16lbs since that win but has won since last year off 103. However its hard to escape the conclusion that hes been placed to win and is: A bet.

Dutch Gold 300E This looks far too short for a horse that qualified for the register over a mile and a half. No bet!

...To be cont'd...

posted June 04, 2004 10:05 PM
Atlantic Viking 330E is another who won the corresponding race last year and qualified for the register in the process. Although on the same mark theres no Repertory this time to hold the weights down. But how can anyone seriously suggest the horse hasnt been placed to win. Dandy Nichoils has produced more shocks than the San Andreas Fault and Atlantic Viking cant, even as a 9yo, be ignored here. A bet.

Vita Spericolata 540E after 5 races at 5f finally gets back to her lethal 6f. Shes been a long time without winning but is now on a v dangerous mark of 84. A bet.

Tante Rose 235H although dropped in class here qualified for the register at her sires ideal dist of 7f. This is only 6f and the going is easier too. She gives more than a hint that this is part of her training schedule. No Bet.

Needles And Pins 235H continues to look wrong at 6f. No Bet.

Rab,

As I said they could have driven the horse right out, and possibly have won today. I'm not a 100% sure he would have won, he hasn't looked the most straight forward of horses even when the race was right. As you say that was not the idea, they wanted to leave something in the tank for Ascot. The trainer intentions are obvious, the only question is, is the horse good enough? Apart from pace makers most will be trying to win the big one, so we will have a lot of trainer intentions in play for that race.

TC,

Sorry, but I don't agree c/form is the first step. I make it the final deciding step. If the horses came from a list to follow the first step is deciding what the horses have to do to get on the list in the first place. If you are assessing a race from scratch the horses should come from the narrowed field. That is the first step in that case. Now I could be wrong but I think VDW was saying when you have made your selection then you look to see if the trainers intentions make sense.

JIB,

You are correct that I can't get into the main forum. The main reason for my return was to have another look at some old postings. I happen to think this is THE best ever thread on VDW on the web, or anywhere else.

I congratulate you on finding Passing Glance, very nice winner. I can only agree that he was in with a very good chance, and because of the course the trainer would expect him to run well. I have to ask was it the fact that the horse could act on the course that was the final clincher for you in this case? While I can see he may have been on a VDW type list as a horse to follow, I don't think he would have been. I don't think anyone has ever said VDW is the only way to find winners, but I do think it is the most consistent way.

Be Lucky

JULY CUP

The weather will have a big say in today's race, so it is advisable to hold off until one can be sure of the exact going.
Patavellian has, without question, been trained for this race, and would have a very good chance unless the ground gets too soft.

Mtoto.
The point with Sulamani is that he was in yesterday's race to PUT something in the tank, rather than LEAVE something in. He is no certainty to even run in the KG, but needed yesterday's race if he does.

Thanks John, just paid £40, now I need to cough up another £20, is there any small print to read, I have a feeling I am going to have to part with at least another £10 before I can read anything else.