Johnd,

some interesting points there, however the facts must be balanced against the trainers intentions, oops, if the horse is proven there why G3?

Barney
Gummy didn't 'up sticks',fortunately for those who did, he took the opposite course of action.

I never said he did.

Most of the guys that post on this thread will be able to sort any bad feeling between them peacefully now that others Have left,

When i joined this forum i knew nothing of VDW,Never heard of it in my life but i did read some of it and thought some was ok some was not and maybe better ideas could be applied,

Learned members of VDW stuck with the idea that an 80% strike rate could be got with VDW writings,Sadly this was not to be,1 member who im sure never posted a horse before the off would aftertime most races and even said the winner was in the first 5 class/form horses and posted in such a way that he had bet them,Very clever with words but really a very nasty person and knew how to wind people up,(Very sad)

Now if we look at the real picture and think how can we make a few quid from horses,What do we need to do?

I think we need to learn about this lot,

Speed figs
OR
weight carried
Weight of horse(this should be good if made public,We would then have a guide to see if the horse is back to a winning weight if run on same circumstances,At present we only have speed figs or OR's to do that),Or do we?
Distance
Going
Betting
Trainers
How to train
Breeding
Racecourses
What the horse does in race

Anything else please post it up

wrong,

there is not enough info too establish even fomr.it met be aright fur himfrom preston, holty or summat but not vdw.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Barney,

Johnd,

Do you think it would have been better to take your selection apart before the race? The points you have made hold good after the race as well as before it, so nothing has changed. A very good case to show an after the race discussion can be as interesting as a before the race. Your points in order...........

1) Agreed he ran in the highest class race last time out. That fact alone doesn't prove he is the best horse.
2) Here the operative word is beaten. Yes they were proven Group 1 winners, but neither had to run to anywhere near their best. Refuse To Bend was 15 lenghts behind his best. Soviet Song was 4/5 behind hers.
3) I didn't say he was out of form. I said he wasn't consistent.
4) I don't think collateral form, or even conventional form reading, plays any part in VDW
5) We will have to wait and see, but I think the course was a major reason for his defeat. His best ever run (against class we can be sure of) was on a flat course. I also think many of the horses he beat in the first Ascot race had given up the ghost before he made his move.

The biggest truth in your post, is yes, ignore the Top Speed figures. You also say 'it's hardly VDW.' If you look at Braashee V Cossack Guard, I would say that all was down to s/f. CG had a 7lb pull in the weights for a neck beating.

I only came back to look at some old postings, but on seeing your post telling people that it was unnecessary to look at the old examples. I felt something should be said to stop them thinking that was correct.

JIB,

I can only agree with your example, although it is a little extreme. You didn't say what the Derby was worth, so you gave an outlet there. I don't think VDW used the a/rating as explained. I'm also sure the Derby 2nd would be a lot higher than the other opponent in his other ratings.

I don't for one moment think Fulham or Guest will come back to this thread. No matter what you and others think of Fulham I would just say he is the most helpful person you could hope to meet. He is happy to share his studies and most of his thinking with anyone that has put in some work of their own. I still can't see where this after timing comes in with him. Even after some of the personal abuse he received he was reluctant to leave this forum. All this about him leading and recruiting for the other forum is complete rubbish. As far as I can see all he ever tried to do was help, and he is still trying to help anyone who is serious about VDW.

Be Lucky

I can understand reticence with contemory selections but there's no meaning in discussions of "PK" et al if the beans aren't spilled.

Mtoto
It really is all a matter of perception, an area in which you once again show your shortcomings.
I gave you answers based on sound logic, which can be checked by anyone; you respond with mainly esoteric mumbo jumbo which often defies logic.
Firstly, you ask us to believe that Refuse To Bend won a Royal Ascot gp1 when some 30lb below form, convenient, but ridiculous.
You also ask us to believe that in the same race, Soviet Song ran some 10lb below her best, a point which you conveniently ignored when showing us why she was too close to Attraction for you to bet in her next race.
Then, as further proof of your 'theory', you ask us to accept that in the same race, (The Lockinge), Salselon ran the race of his life, yet everything behind him, including numerous gp winners, were out of form.
Finally, and this really does tell the whole story, you continue to see Fulham as some sort of candidate for beatitude when legions of others, on this site and others, see him for the imposter he is. Do you really think they have no justification?


Epi
As with recent discussions, it does help if you see PK's previous run for what it was, a prep run.
Many others missed this, and in so doing had to invent various reasons for his selection, yet VDW himself said, at a much later date, "The trainer 'TOLD' you the horse was REALLY OUT TO WIN", (His emphases, not mine).
In other words, look to the horses training and placing for the answer.

JohnD,

Whilst we all make mistakes I’m surprised that you continue to defend your decision that Salselon was a selection found by the VDW method, and as such confirms your knowledge of the subject.

The decision is made somewhat easier to equate, from a VDW perspective, given the fact that both Refuse To Bend and Salselon ran in the Lockinge Stakes on their last outing, the race where you made Ikhtyar a good thing, with Refuse To Bend finishing one paced back in eighth, whilst Salselon was at the sharp end of the race behind Russian Rhythm, and of course, note the market.

Next it was up in class for them both in the Queen Anne Stakes over the same distance, where Refuse To Bend prevails going some way to confirm his class, whilst Salselon once again takes a minor position.

I would suggest that you have placed far too much emphasis on class in this situation. Yes both Refuse to Bend and Soviet Song have a great deal of class but what about form? There are question marks.

I agree with you that Salselon was a form horse for the Ascot race, but given knowledge of VDW, I can’t understand how you saw him as a selection?

Johnd,

I would just like to point out the mumbo jumbo as you call it can readily be checked.

Refuse To Bend had a top s/f of 125 he was awarded a figure of 110 for the Ascot win. 1 point = 1 length per mile.

Soviet Song had a s/f of 115 she was also awarded a figure of 110 for the same race the points are still 1 point per length per mile.

The Ascot race was slow relative to the conditions and class, not a good race to use as a yard stick.

As you say I thought Soviet Song was too close to Attraction for comfort 115 to 118. SS had been awarded this figure twice, once against male horses on a stiff right handed track. All of A's races had been against her own sex and her last race was her best by a long way. Had she been given enough time to recover?

The Lockinge, yes, he ran a good race, his best yet. Had he progressed in his next race no? It could be because he is inconsistent, or because the stiff track didn't suit. If it is either of those possibilities nothing had changed, that last race didn't make him consistent, and the track is the same.

PK, yes the last race was a prep race. Yes, the trainer had targeted the Erin. The trick is how did VDW confirm the trainer was correct, and the horse had the ability to win a race of that class? The prep race did nothing to confirm it, the best it did was prove the horse was alive and well.

I judge everyone as I find them, including you. You have done nothing to prove me wrong.

Lee,

Interesting, a different set of reasons, but the correct answer. Your not..........

Are you?

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

?

Lee,

VDW, Sorry an attempt at a joke.

Be Lucky

If only

It is a pity Fulham has left the fold because he has given a lot of historical information, which is vital to solving the riddles of VDW. I for one have the greatest respect for the man, but neither he nor any other of the enlightened members has mentioned Prominent King’s third race prior to the 1978 Erin. I refer to the one before the two 2nd places. You may say that this has no significance to VDW methodology but it must have some significance, why else would the trainer run him. The same can be said for Mr Kildare.

The same enlightened members are having problems making Prominent King the class form horse. This is because they are using the ability ratings. VDW would not have used the ability ratings in this particular race as a reliable guide to class for exactly the same reason he didn’t use them with To-Agori-Mou.

If you can relate Beacon Light to Monksfield, then I can tell you that Mr Kildare was almost 2 stone superior to Monksfield.

Garstonf,

Hi,

I think you will find both Guest and Fulham are happy PK is the class form horse. For that matter so do I, the problem is we arrive at that conclusion from different angles. There is one problem with your idea the 3rd last race is significant if VDW was using the To-Agori-Mou idea for ability. There are no recorded s/f for that race, or indeed his last 5 races. However I do think you are on the right track, and the 3rd last race is important. It proved to the trainer that PK had mentioned his form after the poor run in the race before.

I think there is little doubt that Mr Kildare was a class horse, but that had only been proven on the flat up until that point. As VDW said he hadn't run against much class over the sticks.

I do feel it is a very brave shout to say MK was 2 stone better than Monksfield (over jumps) Not sure how you come to that conclusion, but that is by the by.

Be Lucky

Lee
The only reason I can see to question the form of the Queen Anne is the relatively steady pace. Raceform, (I presume),may have had it as a poor performance, the RP didn't, nor did another good judge whom I respect. Different s/f compilers see it differently, the truth is none of them are the speed figures used by VDW, so the argument is somewhat academic.
Salselon was surrounded by a host of gp1 winners, the only exception amongst the first 6 being Tillerman, winner of a weak gp2, but roughly the same distance behind Falbrav last season in a good gp1.
Steady pace, or not, that doesn't explain his poor showing in this race, and I doubt that I ever could accept that a good gp1 could be won by a horse some 30lb below his best form, there just isn't that kind of margin between top class horses.
Don't know where you got that I made Ikthyar a good thing for the Lockinge? The search facility on this thread is useless, but the only time I recall mentioning him was in the Brigadier Gerard, where I put him up as the likely winner with Bandari as a live danger, a no bet race as I recall.

JohnD,

Please forgive me if that was the case re. Ikhtyar – I don’t have the search facility at all but now when I think about it I’m sure you’re right.

With regards to the form, when making the assessment that I did above, which was an honest one and one that I made before the race with regards to Salselon, I didn’t refer to speed figures at all.

It wasn’t that I thought Salselon wouldn’t win the race, as there was most certainly a high possibility that he could, just that I’m sure that VDW wouldn’t have made him a selection given the form on offer.

Like I say this is an honest reflection of how I saw the race before hand, but even so I would have expected him to do better than he did.

On reflection after the race, in view of the comments made here, I checked, via sire stats, to see if the progeny ‘train on’ after the classic 3yo season. This is something that I always do before backing a 4yo+ particularly in pattern races. In the case of Salse I note that his progeny strike rate for 3yo’s in non-handicap races is 12.8%, compared to 7.7% for 4yo+, over the last 5 seasons, which is interesting.