At Punchestown today,I was reminded of what vdw said,about Little Owl and Wayward Lad.

Beef or Salmon beat Tiutchev,but was it a case of the prize money for being second,greater than first prize money in other races.

Pipedreamer,
I notice that Barcelona in the 2-10 @ Fontwell is not a winter animal but has a higher ab.rating than the others. I will be interested in it's run as I'm never sure how to allow for this type of horse.
regards Bumper.

Bumper,
I didn't look at the race closely,but the winner looked to be hard to beat,also the betting forecast told a story.

In some cases horses who win one biggish prize,can create a false impression in terms of the numerical picture.It is interesting to note that he was fav when he last won,and off a 9lb higher mark today,has he ever won off such a high mark?

Many thanks for the kind replies.
The Ultimate Wheil Of Fortune "The VDW Approach"
Quote VDW: Some years ago in the Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book, I made reference to a method which provided, in the illustration, a 20/1 winner in the shape of Desert Hero.The water in which i fished was alive with small fry, a proportion of bigger stuff and the occasional Desert Hero.

The method revolved around sections in the old Sporting Chronicle daily which were headed Summary of Selections.I knew that in certain races a very high percentage of winners would come from the three most popular selections.This narrowed the field of vision from possibly more than a hundred horses on the card down to just three from one race of perhaps a dozen runners.

Reduce The Odds

As you can see this drastically reduced the odds of finding a winner and these were still further put in my favour by the means used to evaluate.

Accept, or better still, prove for yourself , that a high percentage of races are won by Form Horses and that the majority will be in the shorter price end of the market.Also appreciate that reducing the card to three horses did not mean an automatic means of evaluation. Desert Hero was one of the three most popular selections from the Summary, It was a Form Horse, in fact it was the Class/Form horse and for split second fans it was best on time, end VDW!.

On Saturday past taking the main chases at each meeting Sandown, Chepstow, Wetherby, i was left with Our Armageddon at Wetherby & Moscow Flyer at Sandown as being the most likely winners along with thousands of others no doubt.I did consider Sir Rembrandt at Chepstow but being so far out on the class rating i wasn`t best sure how to approach the problem. Although taking the horses consistency rating & two other ratings from the the Daily Mail (formcast) & Racing Post (postmark) he showed up well enough, but in the end i let this one pass.Id be most interested in your views on these races.

I would be interested in ALL you VDW folk giving views on the Bula Hurdle to be run this Saturday..all the runners are known. Before the race would be nice

Ectoo

Time will tell, but I suggest that the form and tone of your post will mean you will be disappointed. To get a positive response I think you would have done better to set out YOUR analysis of the race (not just opinion as to the likely winner), and then invite VDWers to share how they approach the task.

Those who have made progress in understanding VDW's approach are, by and large, happy to share analyses, but for mutual learning purposes, not to satisfy the wishes of those who, apparently with nothing constructive to offer, seem interested only in being destructive.

Strange answer Fulham, then again you a strange man.

I'll put my analysis up gladly..when I see some VDW input. Don't ever criticise me for not giving to boards..I can leave you standing over the last 3 years withe REAL angles..not just hot air and pompous spoutings.

Now lets see your analysis or I might just think you full of hot air. If there is no VDW input then everyone on the board will know it's just an aftertimers hobby.

I think you and others can easily prove me wrong though

Ectoo

I have nothing to add to my previous post. I doubt you'll find any serious VDWers responding to your kind of post, but we'll see.

my kind of post???

simple question..can anyone pick the winner of the Bula hurdle using VDW methodology before the race?

seems simple enough..I'll post my analysis on Saturday.

AlanB/Fulham, don't bother if you are scared to post your analysis, I understand. Please don't speak for other people though in that arrogant manner. There might be some who actually do analyse races beforehand and actually have a bet, unlike you King Aftertime.

serious VDWers? what, just you like? are other VDWers lesser mortals then? deary me you are soooooo arrogant.

Ectoo

You need to learn to read, then you too might be able to get to grips with VDW.

I'm not claiming to speak for anyone else - merely speculating on an empirical matter: whether the form and tone of your first post will encourage the kind of response you seem to want. As I've said, time will tell.

Are there serious, as distinct to less serious, VDWers? You bet. The serious ones:

(a) understand that to achieve anything like the 80+% strike rate to which VDW referred one needs to do far more than calculate ability ratings and consistency aggregates, and have gone on to

(b) put in time and effort to study the 140+ examples VDW gave us - the ONLY way to deduce the essence of his approach.

I'll look forward to reading your analysis.

there won't be any analysis from me without your's appearing first..and there's no danger of that as you are just a complete fantasy merchant, always have been, always will be.

I can read ok, got your number AlanB,,zilch

....and the caravan moves on

Walter,

You found it then, on saturday the Henry The VIII was worth consideration in my view.

ECTOO,

It is almost certain that VDW would not have found a betting opportunity In the bula hurdle, he possibly would have found the winner though.

???

the race is run THIS weekend..looking forward to the VDW analysis..hope it isn't to big an ask

Ectoo

Ah well, I will bear the disappointment with stoicism.

ECTOO,

NOT CLEAR ENOUGH EH? the race is not worth looking at From a "VDW" point of view. That IS MY analysis, And, possibly the only correct VDW based analysis.

Without being totally, what you may percieve, as negative, In my view VDW would be giving consideration to why Longshanks was well supported at this meeting last year in his first ever chase and how the trainer, with hindsight, must have admitted to himself that he dropped a bollock and decided to give it a totally different prep this time round. Have you heard of Prominent King?

Nevertheless you say VDW may well have found the winner even if he were to have concluded that there was no bet. It would be interesting to understand how the winner would be arrived at and why the race would be considered unsuitable.

i see rating a race BEFORE it's run is too much, continue talking about old races because that is a hobby VDW followers all seem to have in common..it's like a deluded middle class club built on the discussion of very old races..sorry to try and break the pattern.

Yes I do remember Prominent King..unfortunately the poor bugger is probably dead so isn't one I tend to follow now.

Would you like to explain how a horse running in the 70's is going to make you some money today?

If you think that studying what one individual horse did nearly 30 years ago in just one race is going to bring you riches you are deluding yourself greatly.

I'll leave you to rummage through the 1950 Derby or summat..deary me I should have known better than to ask for some foresight amongst the worshippers of hindsight.

Epiglottis,

Alas the interest raised in the intricacies of the conclusions that I draw have not, historically, been consuming enough to necessitate the purchase of the "vdw collection for £35.... thirty-five pounds" or, alternatively to accept numerous offers of free deliverance to your abode.

I don’t know you personally, however on reading through this thread IT is entirely evident that you have been a major contributor to its demise, and reluctantly, have decided, that a post which entered into the possibilities of bringing about your enlightenment regards the Bula Hurdle would be as Useless as considering the race itself.

ECTOO,
I have rated the race, fully, forty-eight hours before the event. Just because you do not consider my analysis of the race, or the race rating as I have presented it to you, as explanation, to your satisfaction, of what VDW would do regarding the Bula, please don’t take umbrage with me.
Unfortunately you have overlooked/ignored a point of discussion, on which I was prepared to get involved.

BEST REGARDS

PKBOY

i prefer talking in English though..tell you what..I'll leave you with it..switch the light off when you leave.

i prefer talking to Witnesses when they come a knocking..they seem quite sensible compared to this bollox