tc

In his article of 13/3/1980, VDW wrote: "Handicaps are said to be the graveyards of punters, but I see them as happy hunting grounds".

This view is supported by the balance of the selections VDW gave over the years. Of the 124 I have listed, from 18/2/1978 to 17/2/1996, 72 were from handicaps and 52 were from non-handicaps.

Personally, I seldom bet other than in handicaps. The form of runners in higher grade handicaps (class B and above, and the better Cs) is remarkably stable when assessed the VDW way, the horses are mostly trying, and the prices of selections often in double figures.

Fulham -

As you correctly point out - VDW - never offered "form Ratings" - indeed he - refused to give his sources!! - But he did state that he used them to re-enforce his selections !! - and "That" to my mind is a very important point !!

"VDW" is about a "Structured Approuch" to Picking a "Winner " in a race, and to ignore other "Form" Ratings is "Absolute Folley".

ok - todays "Ratings" may not be the same as those availible to VDW, - but I suggest - that - they, are now - actualy - "Better"! - and that we should make use of them !!


tc

Looking back on my Records, - I seem to have "Dutched" almost every "Handicap" that I have bet on!

There looks to be a "Balance" between "consistency aggregate" and "Form Rating"

I appear to be well "In Profit"

Has anyone got "Views" on "dutching" ???

tc

TC,

I have to agree with you the other ratings are very important, I'm not sure we agree for the same reasons though. I think they were the original ability rating, one based on speed the other who knows? The important thing is when they are shown the selection is top of both ratings, this also applies to the race were they were not shown just spoken about (PK) They are very interesting when you look at the position of some of the other horse you would expect to be well placed in the ratings.

Why do you think ratings today are better? I suppose they may be, but I think they have a bigger following. This effects the prices of the higher rated horses. another thing is vdw used his own, or at least adapted other peoples ratings.

Dutching, It may be the weak part of my betting but I feel it is used to easily many times just to have a bet. I feel it wastes to much money on the losing stakes. If you can't narrow the race to 2 horse I don't bother to have a bet. If I want a saver I back the horse for a place only, this often gives a better return than the dutch.

Be Lucky

tc

Each to his own. If you find ratings useful, good luck. I don't.

As to dutching, in the kind of big-field handicaps in which I mainly bet it is as common for me to back two or three as it is just one. Sometimes, no matter how hard one studies the form of the probables, it seems unclear which is the most probable. VDW advised us, unambiguously, what to do in such situations.

Mototo

Ok

Betfair gives us the luxury of betting for a "Place" --

But --

I still "Love" the satisfaction of a 25/1 winner -

resulting from a "Dutch" !!

is that a "Proper" VDW approach -

Possibly not !

but -

What the Hell - sometimes - we have to let -"Our Hair Down"

--

The "Holy Grail" - is still to find the bet - on which to place our "Mortgage" tho !

tc

Fulham

You don't find "Ratings" usefull-

VDW appeared to do so !!

--

Why do you differ from him in this respect ???

--

do you wish him "Good Luck" in this area as well ???


tc

tc

As a matter of fact, I don't think I differ from VDW on this matter. Appearance can be deceptive, and as in other aspects of VDW matters can look very different when better understood.

That said, others whose views on matters VDW I respect don't agree with me on this point. We may never know for sure who is right.

Fulham

form horse or not

Have been trying to get my head round a horse either
being a form horse or not, so have had a look back
at You're Special 31st Oct Wetherby (25f)

Did the previous run at Hexham tell you his form was
tapering off.

Negatives: for losing race

4 month plus lay off.
Gave 18lb to the winner
U/Hill track
I don't think he liked the going (G/F)
Even though he had won on it at (Weth)
before, over 21f but was not racing
against much class.

Do not want it spelling out, but would like
to know whether I am on the right track or NOT
even at the races

Delboy

Delboy

If you care to email me at Fulham1000@Hotmail.com .....

Just thinking out loud again as ive not had a bet since 22/11/03 Compton Bolter won 9/2 early price, could the vdw method be forecast based?.In Narrow The Field To Gain Winning Strip VDW states "If we add the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast together, we have a numerical picture".I feel this statement is open to interpretation.You could be forgiven for adding the last 3 finishing race positions attained as per the consistency rating.May hold another meaning altogether though i.e. the last 3 placings of the respective horses in the betting forecasts in they`re last 3 races.Could read 3rd in the b/f/c in 3rd last race, 2nd in b/f/c 2nd last race, and 1st in the b/f/c last time out = 3+2+1 = 6pts.He goes on to say a high percentage of winners come from the 3 lowest figures.Im probably way off track as usual but thought i would share some thoughts anyway as the thread has gone quiet,No posts whatsoever! best of luck to those of you who are really into the subject though hope you are making it pay longterm.

Walter

As you say, much that VDW wrote is open to interpretation, and yours re position in the betting forecast is an ingenious one.

However, it doesn't work out with regard to the runners in the race VDW discusses in the "Narrow the Field ... " article. Thus, for example,

Decent Fellow is shown as scoring 7. In his last three races prior to the 1978 Erin, DF was favourite (17/12/77), favourite (27/12/77) and 3rd favourite (28/1/78), which on your suggestion would score 5.

Prominent King is shown as scoring 5. In his last three races PK was 5th favourite (19/2/77), 3rd favourite (31/12/77) and 2nd favourite (28/1/78), which would give 10.

WP,
vdw did say to keep it simple,and there are not too many people who would have the same logic as yourself,but nonetheless,it could be another crosscheck,that provides an edge.

Walter,

Congratulations are well in order, you are well on your way with one of the most important ingredients-TEMPERAMENT, and in fact VDW stated as much >“betting the VDW way-The first step… Temperament.”

VDW goes on to say, “The Ultimate Wheel of Fortune- the vdw approach” That particular ingredient is the hardest to acquire, the one most easily lost and ironically the most important of all.

The article itself is written by VDW and if he says that it is his approach, you believe him. Start with the temperament bit, in analysing the races he instructs and forget everything else on the card.

Thanks for the replies, i was only thinking out loud lol, maybe some more of you should try doing the same, does keep things going you know.Look we dont all have to be vdw experts to contribute & sometimes it`s the little people that can make a thread or discussion what it is. Sure some effort at times can go a long way, even if it`s only to take part on a basic level like myself. I do miss the Bensam`s, Guest`s, Statajack`s, Hedgehog`s, Barney`s, Determined`s and many others, far too many to mention in fact. Their hearts were for the biggest part in the right place although i dont think it would have hurt too much to reveal a little more if in some instances it was at all possible. But if truth be told the real VDW experts will never be found on message boards expounding on the subject, i know this to be true. Pkboy my chest was stuck out a mile when i read your last post re- temperament, some closer were having a good laugh bugger them!.They know me so much better lol.

Walter,

I like you. You have an uncanny knack of looking at things differently to people like myself. To me , it doesn’t matter if you are right or wrong because hopefully , eventually, I’ll prove it to myself one way or the other. I try very hard not to be sheep like and follow the majority thinking, but that’s not always easy. I couldn’t say if you are right or not in your thoughts because I haven’t experimented yet, but people like yourself , with ideas that don’t fit my old or recent dogma ,are what make forums like this so valuable. IMHO.

Cheers.

Well said.

I must admit,that I think I have a good understanding of vdw,and know that he used various methods.However I do get frustrated at times.It appears from reading his books and letters,that there was some missing link,which when all other factors fitted in place,it indicated a bet for vdw.As if it was an alarm going off,but still without this knowledge there are still other methods that he gave,that don't require the same level of grey matter,thankfully.
I am intrigued especially in N.H. racing,to note that many horses seem to win at the same time each year,and this trend has gone on year in year out.

Pipedreamer

Totally agree with you on the horses that win at the same time of year as before,
Another thing ive noticed is they need a couple of runs before they win,mostly in chasers i think,dont keep records but im sure you will be surprised when you look at past results,

Rab