Guest
Over the last few days i have been in agreement with your c/f and 2c/f But Shabernak has completely done me,I understand the last run was a good one but the horse was beaten by a horse that is in the same race today with a higher ability rating and to my mind is a form horse,Gallery god also seems a better option.Like i say i have agreed with all of them except this one horse so i'm confused to say the least.

Determined

re Continent, that is twice recently (the other being Charlie Parkes) we have seen a horse with a chance in a sprint effectively lose that chance by being slow away. Given how little opportunity there is to overcome a slow start in these high class sprints, maybe that explains why (judging by his examples) VDW seems only rarely to have backed in them. (Just conjecture - I know of no hard evidence, save the paucity of examples - to support it.)

Fulham,

Fair point.

On a different matter, what did you think of R.Hills ride on Hazim in the 4.55 ?

Determined

I thought it was a poor ride by, genuinely, my least favourite top jockey. He appeared to me to give Hazim far too much to do, so that when he got him going he had no chance of catching the first half dozen.

Fulham/Determined
Just out of interest did you make Shabernak 2nd c/f.

Determined - Beyond Hazim, the next c/f proved tricky to isolate here, but Shabernak showed hcp form relative to the task he was set today. In the event, I managed to get acceptable prices on my 3 and just failed to collect. The cross bar is proving hard to miss at the moment.

One of the reasons I left Hawk Wing was that horses who win at a bigger price last time and then go up in class at odds on have a bad record. I wanted better than evens but was never going to get it and in the event they say he was lame. Debatable as to if he would have beaten the good winner in any case though and once again Godolphin bring back a very good horse with just a low conditions victory before the big one (remember the Juddmonte 2 years ago?).

As to R Hills, he could be seen to be going very well as they turned in, but he was too far back on Hazim.

Little damage done though.

Determined

Further to my post re VDW and sprints, a quick check suggests he gave 50 Flat examples (only about two thirds of the number he gave on the NH). And only five of the 50 were in sprints: 2 at 5f (Abathatc twice - Chapter 6 of "Systematic Betting"), and three 6f examples (The Old Fellow (not, I think, a bet for VDW), Soaf and Vaigly Great).


Investor

No, as it happens, like you, I differed with Guest on this. For me, Gallery God and Counsel's Opinion were not form horses in the context of today's race. On balance, my 2nd c/f was Muhareb.

Feedback on today,

GUEST,

Me, ever the novice am struggling with your comments on Continent but I feel if I manage to grasp what you are saying I`ll be on the way ???

Your comments on Hazim, I`m pretty sure I`ve understood that one and the money lost is only borrowed.

INVESTOR,

Hazim was clear class/form for me and a confident bet. 2nd class/form horse was more difficult but I had it down as Gallery God which differs from Fulham.

I`m going to have to get to grips with " in the context of the race ".

FULHAM,

Thanks for the details on the lack of sprints evaluated.

*** 2 losing bets today and it looks even harder tomorrow ***

Hi all,
Guest, can I ask if you ever considered Waverley today in the 4-55?
Since reading up on the Roushayd method I had a little touch on him. I think there's something that VDW says in that letter about form and when the horse is running into it that made me look at the winner.
Another interesting one for tomorrow is Nashaab in the Hunt Cup.
Hope you don't mind me asking.
See you soon, Mike.

Determined

"In the context of the race" means nothing more, nor less, than it says: each horse's past performances are assessed bearing in mind the challenge he or she is facing in the race being analysed. And, for example, a horse which has won its last race - like Counsel's Opinion today - may be a form horse for its next race, or not, depending on the relativities.

From memory, one of the best examples of this posted on the thread was by Guest in Spring 2002, in respect of a race won by Through the Rye. There, Guest was clear that a lto winning horse, Maceo, was not a form horse in the context of the race he was considering, which opened up a new avenue of enquiry for me and, incidentally, enabled me to make sense of some previously "difficult" VDW examples. The post and follow-ups (not confined to days immediately following) are well worth study.

Guest
i have had a real good look at Shabernak,And i think i can understand that the horse had shown good form in lower class,Before being raised and again showing good form i think this is why it's important to look at the horses whole carreer which i didn't do i simply dismissed it through the ability rating,Very tricky though like you say.

Fulham,

Helpful as ever.

Problem is the time aspect. Trying to review the old VdW eg`s, the thread itself and evaluate the day to day cards is virtually impossible.

Its a hard life !

Re R-Hills on Hazim
I think if anyone gets the chance to evaluate the draw at Ascot over 12F in a large field you will see that being drawn high is a great advantage.I was torn between Hazim or Researched for my Placepot(which was down anyway)and went for Hazim because of the draw effect,and Researched was drawn low.
After watching the race out of interest, I also came to the conclusion that to fall out the stalls drawn high is even worse than being low as you get shut in with no way out which was the case today, but there were one or two half chances to put Hazim into the race but Hills never took them.The race was lost at the start, although R.Hills was pumping and pushing to get near the front before the first bend Hazim just could'ent get there.
A good 12F h'cap awaits compensation.

Jockeys and there are jockeys,

Not sour grapes because I lost money on Hazim (only lent) but some jockeys haven`t got the balls to go where it hurts. Any jockey worth his fee given the draw Hazim had would have been handy all the way.

Not to worry. VDW`s favourite race is not too far away. Lets hope Hills is otherwise engaged and Supple can be re-united with Hazim.

Mickeddy - I did deliberate hard on Waverley who was improving and had form in such a race as todays. Maybe I made a costly mistake here, but as I say the form establishment after Hazim in this race was tricky, hence my inclusion of Researched who had won when expected on his only run since gelding and was given the benefit of the doubt in conclusion, despite not being a form horse for the race.

As to Hazim, he reminds me a little of another horse trained by Stoute and owned by Hamdan namely Muhib who was fancied for the Magnet Cup a few years ago but ran down the field. Next time after 2 months off he went upto 12f but down in class at Goodwood and won at 10/1.

Hello all
I know that youv'e probably got your plate full with evaluating ascot,But can someone put me straight on the two n/h meetings i.e which one is the principal,Thanks in anticipation.

Investor - Worcestor is the principle NH meeting and also has the principal hcp chase and no hcp chase.

Guest
Cheers mate,That's what i was looking for.

Hello all
Horses to evaluate

2.30 as RIMROD/ARAKAN and NAAHY

3.45 south AVALON BUCK/SUNDAY HABITS

I'm still wading through the Hunt cup.

Ascot 2.30

Tante Rose c/f - Rimrod 2nd c/f - Arakan 3rd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Arakan (4), Saturn (13), Blazing Thunder (9), Naahy (4) - 39% (75%)

Ascot 3.45

Moon Ballad c/f - Falbrav 2nd c/f - Grandera 3rd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Falbrav (5), Moon Ballad (4), Nayef (6) - 40% (60%)

Ascot 4.20

Macadamia c/f - Morahib 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Macadamia (5), Selective (7), Colisay (7), Morahib (6) - 27% (63%)

A truncated list today, but hopefully informative enough for anyone following the process.

There are 2 races I am betting in today. The first race is the 2.30 where Arakan looks a good thing. A good thing doesn't have to be top rated and the 2 rated higher are not as progressive.

The other bet is in the big one at 3.45 and it will probably surprise a few, though I'm sure some will folow the reasoning based on my previous posts. The horse I think will win is Nayef who is consistent but behind on the ability ratings (4th c/f in fact). However, the World Cup on Dirt clouds the issue and one horse improved for the change and others didn't. It is also worth bearing in mind that Nayef was considered by many to be a certainty for that high class dirt race. Back at Ascot it should be a different story.