Time will probably prove you right about Grand Passion.Good to see someone else doesn't think it's all about arithmetic.

Cork 3.30

Marino Marini c/f

3 most cons f/c & field - Belle Du Jour (9), Miss Anabaa (9), Marino Marini (14), Ryans Academy (14) - 98% likely to provide the winner.

Cork 4.00

Sheer Tenby c/f - Danecare 2nd c/f - Definite Spectacle 3rd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Definite Spectacle (13), Commoya (20), Miracle Bridge (20), Nathan Jones (13), Danecare (13), Mikes Baby (16) - 68% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - Definite Spectacle (13), Nathan Jones (13), Danecare (13), Marko Jadeo (11), Mikes Baby (16) - 74% likely to provide the winner.

Cork 5.00

Catalpa Cargo c/f

3 most cons f/c - Catalpa Cargo (4), Goldstreet (8), Mr Sneaky Boo (10), Fairwood Heart (10) - 55% likely to provide winner.

3 most cons field - as above.

Salisbury 3.30

Ashdown Express c/f - Avonbridge 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Ashdown Express (15), Resplendent Cee (11), Avonbridge (5) - 73% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - as above.

Leicester 3.50

Razkalla c/f - Promt Payment 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Barathea Blazer (13), Daraism (13), Razkalla (8), Promt Payment (9) - 97% likely to provide the winner.

You into percentages as well?

Guest
As far as your ratings were concerned Danecare was 2nd c/f,(Cork 4.00) now as far as most people are concerned the horse in question ran a bad race at Haydock last time.I am a personal friend of the racing manager of a client of Mr.A.Burns who trains the horse.Last time out Mr.Burns told J.Quinn who rode the horse he would never ride for him again and had to have his hands taken from his neck by the asst.manager.Mr.Burns is convinced J.Quinn pulled the horse.A Mutual friend who is a manager of a certain SPL Football club & has a horse in training with A .Burns was there and told me about it.Mick Kinane was wanting to ride Danecare at Haydock and told A.Burns he was a certainty, but as A.O'Brien needed him for other races that day could not ride him.Who was on Danecare today-none other than Mr.Kinane himself & the horse won pulling double.Racing is not a matter of what you know but who you know-not all the time but a lot of the time and its the only sport where you need to lose to win,hence my reluctance to take consistency figs at their face value.Another fine days profit for myself with £100 on the nose at 4/1 o/s.Am I blindly backing horses on hearsay-no Im not I get a lot of Info from pals and aquaintences in racing stables which earns me more money than using VDW Methodology except in the certain races which I have already outlined.I have a very good friend who is an apprentice in a top Northern yard who drinks with other apps from other good Northern yards and they all swap info & do all right.VDW is only any use where there is no advantage of pulling a horse.
The consistency rating is as much use in H'caps as a poof with piles.

BT, you speak my thoughts exactly though I wish I was as eloquent as your concluding sentence.

On top of my last post to reiterate what I have already outlined regarding the consistency figs and racing in general.I was sub-contracting to a certain Irish Gentleman who had 6 horses in training.Now the best one of them all was a toss up between D'arblay Street & Movac who finished 2nd to Double Symphony in a nov chase at levels in Ire.
DS finished third in a £27000 chase at Kelso running a great race under P.Carberry.The horse only ever ran well from the front or up with the pace and was entered in a £10000 chase at the same track and same going some weeks later.After opening up at 4/6 the owner my business accomplice and pal grabbed the jockey and told him to sit at the rear(not P.Carberry) and keep the horse out of the race, and after consulting with the 2nd favs connections lumped on that horse which rumped in at 6/1 I believe.I had a phone call just before the off from DS owner asking me if it was all right to put the £200 I had gave him to back DS on the 2nd fav-I had reservations but said yes-result.It maybe lets some of you see what really happens and confirms P.Kenyons report as more accurate than was given credit for.If I dont get the nod from someone on the inside or at least strongly fancy a horse outside Top,Top class races I dont bet and if I do its only a fiver or tenner for an interest in a big race on the telly.To win big time using VDW methodology to my mind works only about 24 x a year.

quote:

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Originally posted by john in brasil:
BT, you speak my thoughts exactly though I wish I was as eloquent as your concluding sentence.

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JIB
I cannot help it,I am from a working class background and despise political correctness,I call a spade a spade and do not care who or what I offend.It is a problem with this country that people cannot express themselves as they want due to POLITICIANS condemning & holding moral high ground over the majoritys wishes & opinions, although I do not condoln racism as most peeps regard it.

DAZZLING BAY

Formfigures prior to yesterday`s romp was 021 ( consistent rating of 13 ).

Guest pointed out that DB whilst the probable winner wasn`t consistent. I cannot argue with the 12th on his seasonal debut but his last 2 runs show a rapidly improving 3yo.

Prior to getting involved with VDW I would have nailed this one bigtime.

It gets very frustrating at times.

Bio

I heard a wee while ago a story of a horse getting pulled,Not by the trainer,It was the owner,
Mrs Reveley and head stable lass thought the horse would win,the latter had said to all her friends and family get on,
P savail who owns it is supposed to have said to K darley take it to the front and then finish well back,As the result came through reveley phoned headlass and was told Mr savail is here and i ask K darley what the hell he was playing at to which he replied ,Just following orders,Reveley said no more about it,
Every owner,trainer or jockey could be up to these tricks so my question is which ones could we trust ?
Good luck,Rab

While I would agree with most of what you say, VDW went to some lengths to explain that similar things happen every day, in almost every race, (See Racing In My System).
It is wrong, though, to assume that this should limit us to so few bets. He certainly knew the time of day, but also knew how to use it to his advantage, and on a far more regular basis than you suggest.

Bio - I'm not denying skullduggery takes place in racing, though if I were you I would keep such tales to myself. The net is not immune from legal action.

The point is, the class/form approach picked up on Danecare today without any need to know connections or suchlike. Half the fiddling in good races is easy to spot when you know what to look for.

I could suggest that if you only go in when getting the nod from your contacts, then they got it wrong with Dumaran even though the class/form approach could see it.

When you backed Dumaran and I questioned the wisdom of putting your entire bank on it, you said it didn't matter as you could top it up. This leads to me to ask, why didn't you put a figure more in keeping with your previous bet on Little Edward if you thought it was a certainty (which I agree it looked)?

VDW used a staking method that ensured a profit, he didn't reduce stakes so drastically after a loser. There is no logic in putting 200 quid on one horse and then 20 on an odds on certainty.

As to your views on the consistency element in handicaps, well look again. In fact Danecare was one of these today as was Lafi/Cripsey Brook/Barolo/Fayr Jag. You might not like people quoting facts and figures at you, but without them you are living in a false reality.

I echo JIBs thoughts-

now at last the thread seems to be getting somewhere.

I am pleased to see that Guest has placed the 80% strike rate - in perspective - by talking about "Dutching" and VDWs staking plans !

also

well done Guest by posting prior to the race - win or lose your views become much more interesting !

tc

Talking about "corruption" -

The "Colin Davey" Method - is almost pure VDW !

tc

quote:

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Originally posted by Guest:
Bio - I'm not denying skullduggery takes place in racing, though if I were you I would keep such tales to myself. The net is not immune from legal action.

The point is, the class/form approach picked up on Danecare today without any need to know connections or suchlike. Half the fiddling in good races is easy to spot when you know what to look for.

I could suggest that if you only go in when getting the nod from your contacts, then they got it wrong with Dumaran even though the class/form approach could see it.

When you backed Dumaran and I questioned the wisdom of putting your entire bank on it, you said it didn't matter as you could top it up. This leads to me to ask, why didn't you put a figure more in keeping with your previous bet on Little Edward if you thought it was a certainty (which I agree it looked)?

VDW used a staking method that ensured a profit, he didn't reduce stakes so drastically after a loser. There is no logic in putting 200 quid on one horse and then 20 on an odds on certainty.

As to your views on the consistency element in handicaps, well look again. In fact Danecare was one of these today as was Lafi/Cripsey Brook/Barolo/Fayr Jag. You might not like people quoting facts and figures at you, but without them you are living in a false reality.

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To correct you on a few points
If any legal action came from anything on this forum I would deny it completely.I thing Gummy has more to fear than I.(T******m Ratings)
Dumaran was my selection not anybody elses,selected using the Roushayed method as it had won far better races on far better tracks disposing of far better horses than he encountered that day.A.Balding(Oaks winning trainer by the way) sent him ALONE in his horse box 840 mls to pick up 9.5G and he ran astinker after running a very good race in the Lincoln and a decent race at Epsom opver a trip too far and on going to fast(reiterated by none other than A.Balding)
After Hamilton he ran a predictable race in his predetermined race, in which I would not have bet him with forged money.But I'll tell you what guest he will pop up at good odds on suitable going,trip with crap consistency figs very soon.
As far as crooked racing is concerned it is the beauty of the sport to look for flaws in trainer placement,going,track & poor jockeyship.
Little Edward was too short to bet.Full Stop, and all it needed was a return to form of Golden Bounty to scupper him at measly odds.
As for living in a false reality then I think its possibly you who is as you obviously dont know anyone in Racing, as you seem so blinded by these consistency figs.Every so often Fineform has massive full page adverts when the figures add up, and nothing in between.
I also have no problems with facts and figs if presented in the proper manner, without resorting to calling me a PRAT.
Finally I have won a lot of dough this weekend-How much have you won?

BT, good for you. Whatever the benefits of pc to civilization may be, they are the kiss of death if used to try and understand horseracing.

BT
Is the Racing Post kidding us with all this recent talk about badly paid and badly treated stable staff? Presumably all your "pals and acquaintances in racing stables" are doing as well as you are with all that grand info they give you. And, of course, you'll be looking after them.

Biotechnology

As I’m sure you realise by now, the majority of people who post on this thread live in a dream world. I’m not calling them shirt lifters but there is something lacking. A Saturday afternoon, having a good swally with your mates and earning a few bob sounds good to me.

Jimmy
Is it in a dream world that Carey Street is paved with tips from stable staff?

There are tips and there are tips.

On a more serious note. I see that Mtoto is present and would like to ask a serious question. I will understand if he does not answer it but what the hell.
I have noticed that on, both this thread and others, you and Guest have posted that such and such a horse is a bet providing you can get such and such odds. Is there any way you can explain, without giving too much away, how you arrive at this?
I’ll be honest in that this is the only use I see for VDW. If you can use the methods to determine the true odds for a horse before a race I would be mightily impressed. Any help would be greatly appreciated, although as I have said if you choose not to answer I will understand.