Tips versus the formbook,

I have stated somewhere on this website that excellent info` does exist and I speak from experience but at the end of the day a good understanding of the formbook would be my choice everytime if I had the choice to make.

That said, the info` I used to receive was from a certain Reg Akehurst yard. What I would give to have that man in training with Royal Ascot just around the corner.

Those were the days.

quote:

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Originally posted by Jimmy:
_Biotechnology_

As I’m sure you realise by now, the majority of people who post on this thread live in a dream world. I’m not calling them shirt lifters but there is something lacking. A Saturday afternoon, having a good swally with your mates and earning a few bob sounds good to me.

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Thanks Jimmy
As you have been there and seen it done I expect, its good to know some arent in dream land
Arkle1
I dont know about that.My contacts are not stable lads but app jockeys & trainers-not many I hasten to add.

Jimmy,

I try to put a price against every horse in any race I'm interested in. This has nothing to do with any of VDW's writings. Except his idea of not going against the odds.

The price is based on a formula that brings the horses chance in the race to a percentage. It is based on recent form, class, horses strike rate, and trainers recent form. It is nothing spectacular, just a guide as I see the race.

I have to say this will be my last post until that appalling post, you posted last night on The Sires thread is removed. I don't agree with Barney posting rubbish on that or any other thread. I do agree with him about his yellow card.

Hope it is taken down VERY quickly. It may be a good idea if all the posts with the same sort of useless content were removed!

Rank Hypocrisy

Including yours to me ?

Mtoto,

Biggest meeting of the year starts tomorrow and it will be the members of this thread who suffer should you not post this week.

Hopefully the message you refer to has beeen deleted.

All we need now is for Gummy to remove those individuals who don`t deserve to be educated by the likes of you, Fulham, Guest, etc.

Hope you have a good meeting. I`d be interested in your thoughts come the Wokingham.
I have placed a decent ante post bet at 33/1 on Ratio who was well overpriced at that.

Cheers,

Its good to see the group developing some Walter Mitty type characters

Guest,

Interesting to see you taken to task for the very thing I think you fail in. The consistency factor. How many of you evaluations would have been winners, if you had applied the consistency element, then the c/form.

I would like to thank you for pointing me in the direction of Cripsey Brook. A race I had discarded for lacking in class, but only just. I didn't back the horse just because you pointed it out, it had to be the selection using my ability rating.

Bio,

You must be congratulated for finding good inside information. I have a friend who has horses, I have lost count of the duff tips. In my youth I worked as a steel erector, a lot of the work was at racing stables. I lost count of the times the staff left for the races saying this was a winner only for it to lose. The staff were often broke because of this, this was at many stables not just one.

Be Lucky

Firstly Bio, contrary to what you may think, I do know many people in racing including owners and pro bettors. However, I don't go advertising who they are regardless of how I perceive them.

Without naming names I know several high profile pro bettors/owners and whilst they do indeed land the odd touch, I am aware of their many failed bets along with plenty of times one of theirs has gone and won without a penny on. They own horses, not because they can make a fortune landing coups and touches, but because they enjoy the thrill of owning horses, though they don't like to admit this.

The real shrewdies imo keep away from publicity and suchlike and don't go telling everyone when they win. You have had a good weekend, fair play to you, but your display of elation only serves to demonstrate your probable temperament.

As to Dumaran, it is not even worth further discussion because you are completely missing the point about VDWs approach. I take things one race at a time on the facts available, and whilst I have no doubt Dumaran will probably get his name on the scoresheet this year, I'll wait til the formbook indicates it.

By the way, trainers send their horses all over the place everyday travelling hundereds of miles round trips. Ever wondered why, given that no more than an average amount win? Could it often be something to do with trying to find an easier race as he is proving difficult to win with?

As to consistency figures, well you probably haven't seen a lot of my bets posted in the past. Quite a few were found without using the cons figures and resulted in a few double figure priced winners. The class and form comes first, consistency is just one element.

Anyway, forget all this puffing of feathers and put your selections up before racing as others are doing. However you are working, it will be interesting to compare.

Walter Mitty was probably that deluded, that he thought others around him lived in a world of their own. And how would he know different?

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Mtoto:

Bio,

You must be congratulated for finding good inside information. I have a friend who has horses, I have lost count of the duff tips. In my youth I worked as a steel erector, a lot of the work was at racing stables. I lost count of the times the staff left for the races saying this was a winner only for it to lose. The staff were often broke because of this, this was at many stables not just one.

Mtoto
I appreciate the time taken to reply.
I have enjoyed racing from when I was a little boy and used to ask my Dad to place a 5p yankee for me from 4 of the old ITV Seven races.
I have had tips from here there and everywhere and used to actively look for them.
Now they just seem to fall into my lap every now and then.Its not all the time or on a consistent basis.The business associate of mine used to tell me to bet this and that but it was only occasionally I actually bet them as to my mind they werent much good(although they paid £50000 for Movac which was very promising when running the following years Queen Mother Champion chase fav Double Symphony closely at levels.He then got an injury,hosed in in his Nov chase at Hexham then disappeared from site.
If I get a tip I only follow it if it has something going for it, or has decent form in the book.Saturday was just a chance meeting from MJ's uncle who he hasnt to my mind had anything from him for years.
I do recieve info from several betting stables in Ireland and around 50% of them win at decent odds.I also get decent info from a wee pal at a certain top Northern trainers yard, but again its only when the wee man is really confident I bet,usually the 2 y olds or Nov Hurdlers,horses who are unexposed and they have good yardsticks in the stable to judge them by,that to me is the most successful way of separating the wheat from the chaff.

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Guest:
Firstly Bio, contrary to what you may think, I do know many people in racing including owners and pro bettors. However, I don't go advertising who they are regardless of how I perceive them.

Without naming names I know several high profile pro bettors/owners and whilst they do indeed land the odd touch, I am aware of their many failed bets along with plenty of times one of theirs has gone and won without a penny on. They own horses, not because they can make a fortune landing coups and touches, but because they enjoy the thrill of owning horses, though they don't like to admit this.

The real shrewdies imo keep away from publicity and suchlike and don't go telling everyone when they win. You have had a good weekend, fair play to you, but your display of elation only serves to demonstrate your probable temperament.

As to Dumaran, it is not even worth further discussion because you are completely missing the point about VDWs approach. I take things one race at a time on the facts available, and whilst I have no doubt Dumaran will probably get his name on the scoresheet this year, I'll wait til the formbook indicates it.

By the way, trainers send their horses all over the place everyday travelling hundereds of miles round trips. Ever wondered why, given that no more than an average amount win? Could it often be something to do with trying to find an easier race as he is proving difficult to win with?

As to consistency figures, well you probably haven't seen a lot of my bets posted in the past. Quite a few were found without using the cons figures and resulted in a few double figure priced winners. The class and form comes first, consistency is just one element.

Anyway, forget all this puffing of feathers and put your selections up before racing as others are doing. However you are working, it will be interesting to compare.

HI guest
Ok I do repect your views on VDW and you do seem to get results, so all the very best to you,I mean that.
I agree with much of what you have commented on
and if one of my Select bets comes up I will post it up.As I said on saturday MJ reckons he will have the winner of the Chesham(he was in the Daily Mail today raving about his Pearl of Love) and as he told Old Jimmy to bet his horse in the race that will be my first post on the 80%
Cheers

Ascot 4.55

Hazim c/f - Shabernak 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Hazim (6), King's Consul (13), Dileer (13), Shabernak (11) - 24% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - Gallery God (8), Hazim (6), Red Wine (9), Pagan Dance (6), Silence Is Golden (9), Saddlers Quest (9) - 47% likely to provide the winner.

Reading the form shows that either Hazim or Shabernak will probably win. Researched doesn't feature in the above and normally I would be happy to discard this one on it's bare faced form. However, it has been gelded before returning with a fto win at York in a fast time albeit over shorter and it is probable that it will improve further. A possible book with these 3, but the market needs monitoring especially given the f/c prices. I'd want a better than evens return the 3.

Ascot 3.45

Indian Haven c/f - Clodovil 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Clodovil (3), Kalaman (6), Martillo (5) - 38% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - Clodovil (3), Kalaman (6), Martillo (5), Statue Of Liberty (3) - 53% likely to provide the winner.

Another race with conflict as the c/f horse Indian Haven doesn't feature in the 3 most consistent, but the probability for the cons horses is low. Form shows that Indian Haven & Clodovil are the most probable winners, but it should be noted that Kalaman bypassed the Irish 2000 won by IH due to conditions. This race will be run under very different circumstances to the Irish or French 2000 and there is no option other than to leave the race alone.

Ascot 4.20

Hawk Wing c/f - Where Or When 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Desert Deer (4), Dubai Destination (4), Hawk Wing (5? or 10?), Where Or When (7) - 51% likely to provide the winner.

3 most cons field - Desert Deer (4), Dubai Destination (4), Gateman (6), Hawk Wing (5? or 10?), Victory Moon (4) - 66% likely to provide the winner.

The c/f horse Hawk Wing looks very strong here, but the price will be too short to get involved. He would have to be evens or better for me to put money down.

Ascot 3.05

Oasis Dream c/f - Dominica 2nd c/f

3 most cons f/c - Oasis Dream (4), Dominica (7), Romatic Liason (5) - 26% likely to provide winner.

3 most cons field - Peruvian Chief (7), Oasis Dream (4), Dominica (7), Olivia Grace (5), Romatic Liason (5) - 42% likely to provide the winner.

Oasis Dream made the big step to group 1 class from a maiden at 2yo. The form was good, but now taking on older horses fto. Dominica achieved this feat last season, but not seen since running 5th in the Nunthorpe last August. Oasis Dream on a speed merit basis is behind a lot of these sprinters as is Dominica. It's a conflicting picture overall and whilst one of these two is the most probable winner, I wouldn't put money on it.

Note - the probability percentages are based on consistency alone. The picture is interesting if the resultant adjusted individual % totals are incorporated into the forecast probability which is 83% initially. For info here are the results of doing so for the above 3 most cons from the f/c.

Ascot 3.05 - 55%
Ascot 3.45 - 53%
Ascot 4.20 - 72%
Ascot 4.55 - 62%

So it would appear one is more likely to find a winner amongst Desert Deer, Dubai Destination, Hawk Wing and Where Or When in the 4.20 and Hazim, King's Consul, Dileer or Shabernak in the 4.55.

If I can get better than evens on my 3 selected (Hazim,Shabernak and Researcher) in the 4.55 then I will take it. Likewise for Hawk Wing in the 4.20. Otherwise I'll just be watching on Tuesday.

GUEST,

Your thoughts and evaluations are as ever very much appreciated.

I have only looked at the 4.55 and I am very strong on Hazim and at this stage he will be a bet.

Cheers,

GUEST,

A question if I may with regards Continent in the King Stand.

His final run last season when well beaten in Sha Tin after avery long season was one race too many and in my opinion can be safely ruled out.

A very similar situation to Hawk Wing ???

If ignoring that last run then Continent with the top ability rating would have to be 1st on class/form.

Admittedly when looking at his career to date he has needed a couple of runs to bring him to the boil plus the fact he has a Group 1 penalty to carry.

Trainer has deliberately waited for Ascot this time around to have a fresh horse for the top sprints.

Stable in excellent form, can carry big weights and the course and the way the race will be run is tailor made for him. Anyone who has the video of last years running of this race should reply the video.

I cannot discount Continent today and he is one of 2 in the race I will be backing.

Your 1st on class/form namely Oasis Dream is my 2nd and is the other horse I will be backing. Connections had a winning chance with Malhub but run OD instead. Trainer knows how to win at this meeting and this one could be the one to lower Airwave`s colours later on.

A 2 horse book for me then.

Cheers,

Continent's last run is easily forgiven as the sharp 5f on fast ground was against him. As he showed in the Nunthorpe, ( And many other times ), he needs good ground or softer at this level, over 5f. Today's stiff track will help, but I reckon he will finish too late.
The in form/out of form approach will always be found wanting unless the considerations VDW spelt out are used correctly.

1 have followed this thread with interest since i joined this board and the info and thought that goes into some of the posts is second to none keep it up chaps but please stop this in house fighting it only spoils what is a great thread

good luck to all today

Johnd,

I totally agree that Continent needs a stiff track over 5 furlongs and a little juice in the ground certainly wouldn`t go amiss.

That said, in the race last year he lost more than he normally does at the start yet still beat Kyllachy who many felt was unlucky.

My money is already on but I`ll settle for 2nd place as long as Oasis Dream is the winner.

What price a course record ? Its gonna be one hell of a pace.

Cheers,

Every time I look at this race -

I come back to Captain Rio and ask- Why Why Why ??

Could this be the Lion in the Bushes !!

Why is Fallon on this, when he could be on Continent ?

Why is the horse back fron a Europian campaign ?

Why is it running 2 years after last running in this country ?

D Nichols does some amazing thigs with horses !
and is not above pulling a stunt like this.




tc

[This message was edited by Tuppenycat on June 17, 2003 at 12:40 PM.]

Determined - Both runs in higher class are excused for Continent. His win in between at Longchamp was a lower class of race than todays, but he did win it. It was a narrow victory though from a couple of average types (in context of the race class).

I'm not saying he won't run well and possibly even win it, but the classification of "form horse" for the method can be quite brutal at times. If this was say a class 700 race then that would bring him into the equation. It isn't though.

This is just one area where people will say what difference does 10 grand or so make?

Well it's all to do with going against the common grain. I think Fulham has described it well with his use of the word "idiosyncratic".