From a 'best form' point, In Contrasts Champion Hurdle 6th is surely the best form in the race!

Investor

I am very conservative in assessing the chances of lower priced horses. However good a thing a horse seems to be there is enough general "nuisance" in racing to cause plenty of upsets - after all, many would have regarded Valley Henry and Coolnagorna as good things yesterday.

No doubt I'm being dim, but I don't quite understand your second question - "2 from 2.25".

Walter,

Well done with NU.

With IC being a non-runner, Tikram would have the best form of the remainder.

Thanks determined hope youv`e had a good day as well i wouldn`t have bothered to mention him at all if you hadn`t posted this morning asking for some feedback but he was something of standout anyway wasn`t he, suppose there will be many who bet him using other methods as well.

Investor

The re-shoeing kerfuffle in respect of Emotional Moment provides a good example of the "nuisance" aspect of racing.

Fulham,

Couldn`t agree more.

Evening all,

Does tomorrow`s National hold that winner in the race or is there a book to be had ?

Does anyone place any store on whether a horses rating is rising or falling?

The 'best form' approach had a miserable day on Thursday, as did most others. Sanity was restored yesterday, wih 4 winners and a seccond
at Aintree.
This is not an indiviual approach, it iis simply a matter of isolating the horse with the best receent foorm, and can be checked by anyone with a Racng Post. In races for exposed horses, it rarely calls for individual judgement.
There are, of course, other factors to be considered, but they are again, simple and logical, as the man said.
The reason for posting the list on Thursday was for comparison with the c/f approach, a complex, subjective, and in my view, misguided, method of finding the REAL class/form horse.
Unfortunately, no one saw fit to take up the challenge, but if anyone wqould care to post the c/f method hvorses for future races, ( Pre rrace, of course ), it is a fair bet that the
above approach will out-perform them.
Is there any of the c/f aficionados with enough confidence in their method to post them against the above, or is it all just after the race wisdom?
Mtoto
I would, of couser, exclude you from the above, as you obviously believe in your approach enough to post pre- race, and, despite what some think, have also shown the capacity to think for yourself.

[This message was edited by johnd on April 05, 2003 at 02:37 AM.]

What annoys me John
is that you told me the 10-1 winner that beat my certainty (LOVE IN SEATTLE) after the event.
You obviously want to be in the VDW club as far as I can see.

In future NAME HORSES BEFORE THE EVENT!!

Not too hard is it?

Actually, John did on his "Sire stats" thread , regrettably I never saw it.

Take a little notice of JIB, he knows what he is on about,
Cheers
Swish

Fulham
I understand what your saying,But if we all thought like that our powder would be dry for the duration of the national hunt.R.e the 2 from 2.25 was in reference to you saying the probability of native upmanship you had at 2 from 3 and you fixed your price on these figures,I was curious what kind of price you would have fixed at with the figures i gave,I hope all that makes sense.

Rooster Booster,

Whilst N.Upmanship was a VDW `good thing` yesterday can the same be said for Rooster Booster today ?

The clear class/form horse but there are factors against most notably the distance and more importantly ( is this race an after thought and if so will he still be in peak condition ? ).

In my opinion RB settles far better this year and will get the trip and he is the most likely winner ( and he will be one of my 2 selections on the Tipping thread ) but I will not be playing at the price on offer.

2/1 may however be a different matter.

Any comments ?

Johnd,

I would like nothing more than to show the class/form horses but until I am confident in assessing IN FORMNESS the VDW way ( still along way off ) I cannot.

Some class/form horse do however stand out as N.Upmanship and R.Booster show but that doesn`t mean they are bets.

Take R.Booster today, I wonder how many of the experts would highlight him as a bet today ?



What I will do a little later is put up my thoughts on the 1.45 and 3.45 races at Aintree but everyone should be very careful with regards taking my thoughts as been right VDW wise.

Cheers,

Investor

Yes, I feared I was being dim.

The figures you suggest imply confidence that a horse would win under the conditions 8 times out of 9. I have only ever rated one horse at near this level of confidence, but if I found another the calculation would be as follows:

1 point for the one "loser"
4.5 points for the minimum 50% return over the nine notional bets

Therefore a notional 5.5 points needed from the eight "winning" bets.

This gives a minimum acceptable price of 5.5 divided by 8, ie in Betfair terms around 1.73 allowing for the commission, or 8/11 in the bookies.

1.45 Aintree

Of the top 4 abilty rated horses I make Newhall and Non So in form and Polar Red and Never out of form.

Non So continues on the improve, is dropped in class today and will not have to contend with Cheltenham`s hill. He beat both Polar Red and Never last time and looks to have a decent chance today.

Newhall, not very consistent this season but her run last time makes her a form horse. Money wise she also drops in class today but todays opposition is better than the Sandown race and for me she is up in class.

In my opinion Non So has the best form of the 2 but I expect Newhall to be far better suited to todays conditions than those at Sandown and I anticipate a better performance from her.

Summary - cannot split the 2 and if I do play it will be a book on them both.

Grand National,

Of the highest rated on ability I make the following in form

214 Ad Hoc
189 Shotgun Willy
181 Youlneverwalkalone

*** Chives ability rating is clearly a nonsense and he is also a form horse.

The classiest National I`ve known in my time and I beleive the winner is among these four.

I will be backing Chives and Shotgun Willy to defy all the stats ( weight ).

Good luck,

Never's penultimate race makes him the best form horse, and there may be a case for regarding lto as a prep-run.
In the Grand National the best form hors is Behrajan,, followed by Shotgun Willy.

Hi all,
After reading VDW notes on the National as regards taking the top 5 on consistency and then selecting the 3 highest ability from these you would have:-
Behrajan, Shotgun Willy and Youllneverwalkalone as the three principals. In form you may also have Goguenard, Iris Bleu and Killusty just on consistency.
I believe the winner wil come from the first three named with Iris bleu as a danger.
Maybe a case of making a book here with four against the field?
Best of luck to everyone, Mike.