Mtoto
would HOLD TO RANSOM be the best horse in the race 2.30 at york and a possible bet.

Mtoto
LOL I think i know what your answer will be,It was quite evident in the horses form that it was far from progressive,So please disregard my last post.

I know this is after the race but I thought it was worth a mention. VDW was keen on backing more than one horse in a race and happy with a small profit. Look at the prices I wish I backed them.

YORK, 13 May 2003, 3:00, Duke of York Hearthstead Homes Stakes (Class A) (Group 2) (3yo+),Winner £58,000.00,(6f3y)6f GD-FM, 16 Runners

Twilight Blues, ........................................................................................Form =(17) Av = 67.7k** , Ab = 17k
38% 108A 7f 4/1 GF Lei 29K (17 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class A, No improv
75% 106A 6f 6/4 GF Asc 58K (227 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
156% 109A 6f 7/3 GF Hay 116K (248 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
.................................. (100%)
Just James, ........................................................................................Form =(17) Av = 50k, Ab = 24.3k
100% 93B 7f 14/13 GF Asc 87K (290 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) UP in class from B, CHK for improv
26% 108A 6f 6/3 GF Ncs 20K (318 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
57% 109A 7f 1/nk GF Asc 43K (328 days)(g) (Chk Dist + WIN)
.................................. (68%)
Bahamian Pirate, ........................................................................................Form =(11**) Av = 38.3k Ab = 0k
40% 114A 5f 2/1 Gd Nmk 29K (10 days) (Chk Dist PLACED) Same class A, No improv
21% 107A 6f 5/2 Gd Nmk 16K (207 days) (** DIST lengths)
100% 116x 5f 4/½L Gd Lon 70K (219 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (59%)
Red Carpet, ........................................................................................Form =(12**) Av = 35.7k, Ab = 18.5k
34% 97A 7f 6/4 GF Lei 29K (17 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class A, No improv
28% 114A 6f 1/¾L Gd Don 20K (52 days) ** DIST + WIN **
77% 108A 7f 5/5 Gd Nmk 58K (206 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (51%)


HEREFORD, 13 May 2003, 3:15, Merrivale Handicap Hurdle (Class D) (4yo+,0-120),Winner £4,946.50,(2m3f110y)2m3½f GD-FM, 6 Runners Handicap

Red Sun, ........................................................................................Form =(17) Av = 7.3k** , Ab = 2.5k
29% 103D 19f 3/13 GF Mar 4K (22 days)(g) (Chk Dist placed ?) Same class D, No improv
62% 109D 17f 4/6 Gd Mar 8K (45 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
74% 104D 17f 14/19 GS Chl 10K (108 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
.................................. (100%)
Dantie Boy, ........................................................................................Form =(14**) Av = 7k** , Ab = 3.7k
100% 107D 21f 6/30 Gd Chl 13K (26 days) (Chk Dist Unpl) Same class D, CHK for improv
20% 96E 21f 6/23 GF Plu 3K (43 days)(g) (Chk Dist Unpl)
39% 110D 19f 2/2 Fm Tau 5K (50 days) (Chk Dist PLACED)
.................................. (96%)
Burning Truth, ........................................................................................Form =(9**) Av = 4.3k, Ab = 4.7k
32% 112D 16f 4/16 Gd Lud 4K (8 days) (UP in dist, lengths) Same class D, No improv
30% 107D 16f 4/19 GF Str 4K (24 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths)
41% 115D 16f 1/6 GF Str 5K (31 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN)
.................................. (61%)
Gregorian, ........................................................................................Form =(11**) Av = 3.7k, Ab = 3.5k
12% 90G 16f 1/11 Gd Lud 2K (8 days) (UP in dist, + WIN) UP in class from G, No improv
25% 89x 16f 5/6 Hy Wex 4K (177 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
31% 87x 16f 5/20 Sft Wex 5K (199 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (40%)

Afternoon Gringo
Still a funny colour then LOL.

Nessie,

Like many others I am interested in your approach, but fail to see how you get your magical percentage figures out of thin air.I initially thought that perhaps yur percentage for each race was the rating expressed as a percentage of the race value or vice versa, but that obviously isn't the case.

As from where you pluck your final percentage figures I'm totally mystified. I know I'm thick, but please enlighten us.

Oldtimer

Oldtimer

Be assured that you are not alone.

I did explain before with Demasta Its class balanced with form.
This a poor seller but for an example Iorana was 113E in a 3k. That was the best LTO so its 100%. Rate the races. The best of the 3 and so on. It does take a lot of work, so I look at the best races if possible.

I think I said cut and paste these examples and work throuh them. It is very accurate.

Consitency Abilty Capabilty Probably and work. I got the idea from the Little Owl example where VDW set out the runners in a table.

Thanks.

HEREFORD, 13 May 2003, 3:50, skybetvegas.com Selling Hurdle (Class G) (4-7yo),Winner £2,422.00,(2m3f110y)2m3½f GD-FM, 18 Runners

Betting Forecast: 4/5 Iorana, 9/2 Dabarpour, 10/1 Stocks 'n Shares, 12/1 Lonesome Dealer, Saddler's Quest,
16/1 Indian Sun, 20/1 Gandon, Midnight Coup, Stantons Church

Iorana, ........................................................................................Form =(9**) Av = 3.7k** , Ab = 3k**
100% 113E 16f 2/¾L GS Wor 3K (11 days) (UP in dist, PLACED) ***DOWN in class from E, No improv
86% 98F 16f 2/1 GF Lud 3K (55 days)(g) (UP in dist, PLACED)
160% 109D 17f 5/13 Sft Tau 5K (117 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
.................................. (100%)
Dabarpour, ........................................................................................Form =(18) Av = 3.7k** , Ab = 2.5k**
48% 82F 20f 5/9 Gd Fon 2K (8 days) (** DIST lengths) ***DOWN in class from F, No improv
65% 74E 16f 9/38 GS Wor 3K (11 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
178% 101D 16f 4/14 Fm Lud 6K (201 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (84%)
Saddler's Quest, ........................................................................................Form =(22) Av = 4.3k** , Ab = 14.3k**
47% 54E 22f 10/49 Sft Utt 3K (10 days) (Down in dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from E, No improv
90% 77E 16f 8/35 Gd Lud 4K (75 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
115% 65C 14f 4/24 Sft Don 6K (550 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (73%)
Stantons Church, ........................................................................................Form =(23) Av = 3.7k** Ab = 0k
62% 71E 17f 8/26 GS Her 3K (12 days)(c) (UP in dist, Unpl) ***DOWN in class from E, No improv
0% 01E 20f Pl/88 GF Hun 3K (51 days)(g) (** DIST lengths)
110% 75D 17f 5/42 Sft Tau 5K (89 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
.................................. (49%)


Last one for a while

HEREFORD, 13 May 2003, 4:55, skybetvegas.com Hunters' Chase (Class H) (5yo+),Winner £1,568.00,(3m1f110y)3m1½f GD-FM, 13 Runners

Mr Dow Jones, ........................................................................................Form =(17) Av = 12k** , Ab = 3k**
100% 92B 21f 5/32 Sft Nab 12K (14 days) (UP in dist, Unpl) ***DOWN in class from B, BUT chk figures
156% 75B 26f 12/70 Gd Chl 23K (61 days) (** DIST Unpl)
11% 127H 24f 2/9 Sft Nby 1K (74 days) (UP in dist, placed ?)
.................................. (100%)
Rocket Radar, ........................................................................................Form =(9**) Av = 7.3k** , Ab = 2k**
29% 109H 27f 3/10 Gd Lud 3K (75 days) (Chk Dist placed ?) Same class H, BUT chk figures
140% 91B 28f 5/45 GF Str 17K (346 days)(g) (Down in dist Unpl)
20% 115H 25f 1/25 Gd Her 2K (364 days)(c) (Chk Dist + WIN)
.................................. (70%)
Quetal, ........................................................................................Form =(17) Av = 10k** , Ab = 4k**
0% 01H 33f 6/104 Gd Chl 6K (13 days) (Down in dist lengths) Same class H, BUT chk figures
133% 64B 26f 13/81 Gd Chl 23K (61 days) (** DIST lengths)
12% 139H 24f 1/9 Sft Nby 1K (74 days) (UP in dist, + WIN)
.................................. (53%)
Romany Chat, ........................................................................................Form =(20) Av = 8.7k** , Ab = 2k**
16% 61H 21f 6/50 Gd Chl 3K (13 days) (UP in dist, Unpl) Same class H, No improv
0% 01B 28f Pl/100 GF Str 17K (346 days)(g) (Down in dist lengths)
52% 97H 25f 4/46 Sft Tow 6K (365 days) (Chk Dist Unpl)
.................................. (24%)

[This message was edited by Nessie on May 13, 2003 at 05:02 PM.]

Don`t worry, Epi will be able to translate.

Christ! Where did that lot come from?

Nessie
Using your'e little strategy,I don't think you've had a loser yet,What you have got to do if you intend putting these figures up on a regular basis is to explain what everything means,Not just put a set of figures up and expect individuals to understand them.

Nessie
Well that's another in the bag,Mr Dow jones 3/1.

I think that 100% is best and 70% is 2nd best and so on. I have explained how you get the % already and that VDW liked dutching.

I've said balance the class with the form. loo at the % and I've also "**" where I thinkits important. Study the tables they are very accurate and work best the better the prize money.

I think that this may have been VDW 2nd numercal picture because he loved % probablity and compared it to class and form. But then again maybe it wasnt,

How can you justify telling Nessie he has to explain after all the rigmarole with Mtoto and the mysterious factor running through the selections? As far as I can tell Nessie is explaining and is the only one on here who is.

Nessie
Well mate you've completely spun me out(doesn't take much doing) you have obviously put a lot of time and effort into your strategy and no doubt it works for you,I personally wish you the very best of luck.

Epi
Point taken where me and nessie differ is iv'e never put any kind of tables or indicated how i come to my conclusions,Whereas Nessie has put tables up on the thread that have pinpointed some very nice winners including a 25/1 shot today.Answer me a question Epi,Do you fully understand the tables ? also before you respond,I have given mtoto the option to e.mail me which he hasn't taken up yet,But i'm not going to throw all my thoughts at the likes of you who can't even be a...d to buy the books.

I haven't looked at the tables but as there have been several explanatory posts I cant imagine they're particularly difficult.

They are if you`re VDW`d

Epi
I understand that nessie is using P/ms and that is obviously where is % are coming from,From a vdw perspective 25/1 shots don't come along that often,I personally backed FEET SO FAST In that particular race from a c/f point of view there is no way this horse could be ommited from any evaluation,That involves vdw It was nowhere to be be seen in nessie's tables that is very hard for me to accept based on the research iv'e done.

Well if anyone starts telling me VDW is easier to figure out from Guest's posts.....