Mtoto/Barney,

Thanks for your thoughts on Demonstrate getting the mile.

Mtoto,

Can I ask, are you still compiling your own speed figures or are you using SS? I ask because I’m trying to understand a couple of your selections that you put up to Investor. I was happy with Hugs dancer and Warrsan. But Fire Up the Band I made him as having a shortfall of 5lbs on a class basis. Did you see Lochridge as the most likely, but FUTB a significant danger?

Altay also has a shortfall on class, as far as I can see, with Man Of Mystery a significant danger albeit out of Novice company. After what you said regarding Bonus I was surprised to see that you’d backed Altay.

I’d be grateful for any comments on these two.

Barney

It's not a race for me, but if you are thinking of having a bet you may care to know that David Lyons, who claims a source within the Godolphin operation and hopes for about eight winners from about ten selections over the season, is giving Blatant as a bet.

As we saw over Cheltenham, Lyons is far from infallible, but his strike rate over 18 months approaches 50%, so his info. is not to be dismissed too lightly.

(I believe he has given just one Godolphin bet this season before today, which came second. His "about eight from about ten" comment post-dates that selection.)

Fulham,

Thanks for that very interesting, if i could be sure that i would get the other nine I would put that sequence of selections to good use this season.

Nessie
well done mate,You pinpointed that one anyway.

Chaz,

Sorry for the confusion, I do something's automatically, and don't always relies I've done them.

FUTB, The figure was taken from the Lingfield run against Feet So Fast. I made that race slightly faster than RFU. So he was dropping 10lbs in class. I have stopped calculating my own figures, but I always check the key races against my data bank.

Altay was slightly different. He was up in class by a few lbs. As I had this race between 2. I thought Brooklyn's Gold was held by A, and this was the target for A. You are right I don't use novice figures when assessing handicaps, in fact the horse is ignored. There were a few in this race.

Did you have Warssan?

Hope this helps, any other problems just drop me a line, and I will try to sort it out.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Your'e using o/r's you crafty monkey combined with weight,And you class that as vdw ah well as long as your'e happy.

Mtoto
I still think A PIECE OF CAKE Was a one off i'm struggling to make that one fit.

Investor,

How many times I don't even look at weight, before, or after. I couldn't tell you what weight they carried, I don't care.

I have always said I use another way to classify the class of a race. When I am looking at the old examples I use the VDW method. I just think using the OR grading is more accurate. Apart from using OR's to grade a race the ONLY other time I look at them is to grade the horse. I very seldom back a horse with an OR of less than 85 on the flat.

If you do understand how I work the only problem for you would be the fact I used my own s/f. Piece Of Cake fits in every other way, yes it is a one off. 20/1 winners don't come along every day. There again 12/1 winners in 6 runner non handicaps don't happen that often. Both were found by the same method.

Be Lucky

quote:

---

Originally posted by investor:
Nessie
well done mate,You pinpointed that one anyway.

---

yeh but he only got the first 3 in the right order, he didn't forcast the non-runner did he?

pants!

Mtoto,

Yes to Warrsan, the Irish St Ledger was the race for me as I recall. Have you got your email working again yet?

Nessie
Well done with Right Approach,
Would you go over how you get the % again as I can't work them out,
Right approach
100%
60%
9%

Atavus
43%
34%
86%
Many Thanks

Nessie, i would like to second the request for a tutorial thread on your method as im sure it would of great interest to everyone.

Nessie

I too would be very interested in better understanding the way you are obtaining and using the percentage figures. I agree that a tutorial thread would be of great assistance.

If I promise to behave myself, can I sit at the back of the class please?

As long as you keep both hands on the desk

You just wait and see, before you know where we are I`ll be the milk monitor. (I did that for 10 years, it took me from 9am till 4pm every day)

The problem with a tutoral is that I take ages to type stuff. But I will try to help as we go.
I was told by jimmy that this is the wrong place to post, so where should I go?

Anyway todays is

YORK, 13 May 2003, 2:30, Tattersalls Musidora Stakes (Class A) (Group 3) (Fillies) (3yo),Winner £34,800.00,(1m2f88y)1m2½f GD-FM, 8 Runners

Betting Forecast: 7/4 Echoes In Eternity, 7/2 Mananiyya, 4/1 Hold To Ransom,
9/2 Geminiani, 8/1 Cassis, 11/1 Buy The Sport, 16/1 Irtahal, 100/1 Helderberg

Buy The Sport, ........................................................................................Form =(11**) Av = 49k** , Ab = 14.5k
100% 90x 8f 6/8 Gd Cap 101K (16 days) (UP in dist, Unpl) ***DOWN in class from 101K, CHK for improv
24% 101A 8f 1/2 St Lin 22K (38 days) (UP in dist, + WIN)
26% 99A 8f 4/2 GF Don 24K (243 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (100%)
Cassis, ........................................................................................Form =(21) Av = 49k** , Ab = 4k
29% 93A 7f 9/5 GF Nby 29K (31 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths) Same class A, BUT chk figures
84% 88x 8f 9/13 Gd Lon 87K (219 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
35% 105A 6f 3/1 GF Nby 31K (235 days)(g) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (98%)
Hold To Ransom, ........................................................................................Form =(16) Av = 54.3k** , Ab = 4k
20% 101A 10f 2/1 GF Nmk 18K (9 days)(g) (** DIST PLACED) Same class A, No improv
30% 97A 7f 4/2 GF Nmk 29K (28 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths)
94% 74A 8f 10/17 GF Asc 116K (227 days)(g) (UP in dist, Unpl)
.................................. (96%)
Geminiani, ........................................................................................Form =(2**) Av = 17k, Ab = 17k
27% 107A 7f 1/1 GF Goo 23K (261 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN) Same class A IMPROVING ***
10% 90D 7f 1/½L GF Goo 11K (285 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN)
0% 0 0f 0/0
.................................. (36%)
Irtahal, ........................................................................................Form =(2**) Av = 6k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
5% 84D 7f 2/1 GS Nmk 6K (11 days) (UP in dist, PLACED) UP in class from D, CHK for improv
0% 0 0f 0/0
0% 0 0f 0/0
.................................. (10%)
Echoes In Eternity, ........................................................................................Form =(1**) Av = 5k, Ab = 5k
5% 94D 8f 1/3 GF Nmk 5K (231 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN) UP in class from D, BUT chk figures
0% 0 0f 0/0
0% 0 0f 0/0
.................................. (10%)
Mananiyya, ........................................................................................Form =(3**) Av = 4k, Ab = 4k
3% 79D 8f 1/5 GF Wdr 4K (29 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN) UP in class from D, BUT chk figures
3% 84D 7f 2/½L GF Kem 4K (232 days)(g) (UP in dist, PLACED)
0% 0 0f 0/0
.................................. (6%)
Helderberg, ........................................................................................Form =(20) Av = 5.3k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
3% 63D 10f 7/11 GF Nby 5K (32 days)(g) (** DIST lengths) UP in class from D, BUT chk figures
4% 63C 8f 3/13 Hy Don 7K (186 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
2% 61D 7f 11/8 GS Nmk 4K (192 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (6%)

Have I overlloked something ref Maldoun
So Why is maldoun 13/8? I've ** on the parts I think are important.
VDW says that we need to balance all the factors.


This is a low class race though but i think its interesting exercise ref balacing the form.

HEREFORD, 13 May 2003, 1:45, 08000 722 421 Freephone Betting From Sky Bet Novices' Hurdle (Class E) (4yo+),Winner £3,477.50,2m1f GD-FM, 14 Runners

Betting Forecast: 11/8 Court Shareef, 13/8 Maldoun, 13/2 Janoueix,
7/1 Champagne Harry, 20/1 Jesper, Monty Be Quick,

Court Shareef, ........................................................................................Form =(10**) Av = 10.7k** , Ab = 8k**
100% 102E 16f 2/3 GS Wor 3K (11 days) (Chk Dist placed ?) Same class E, BUT chk figures
570% 97A 14f 5/10 Gd Not 18K (42 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
334% 93B 12f 3/3 Gd Don 11K (52 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (100%)
Champagne Harry, ........................................................................................Form =(24) Av = 5.3k** , Ab = , Ab = 0k
88% 90E 16f 4/18 GS Wor 3K (11 days) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class E, No improv
0% 01F 19f Pl/55 GF Str 3K (24 days)(g) (Down in dist lengths)
307% 94A 16f 15/26 GS Chl 10K (177 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (39%)
Monty Be Quick, ........................................................................................Form =(16) Av = 3.3k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
67% 69E 16f 3/29 Fm Wcn 3K (22 days) (Chk Dist placed ?) Same class E, No improv
0% 01E 19f Pl/56 GF Her 3K (38 days)(g)(c) (Down in dist lengths)
77% 59E 19f 3/14 Fm Tau 4K (50 days) (Down in dist placed ?)
.................................. (14%)
Glass Note, ........................................................................................Form =(24) Av = 3.7k** , Ab = 4k**
0% 01E 19f Pl/62 GS Her 3K (12 days)(c) (Down in dist lengths) Same class E, No improv
44% 34x 12f 10/23 Gd Trl 4K (258 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
75% 58x 13f 4/5 GF Wex 4K (304 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (11%)
Bellino Empresario, ........................................................................................Form =(20) Av = 2.7k, Ab = 1.5k
62% 64E 16f 9/48 GS Wor 3K (11 days) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class E, CHK for improv
0% 01F 19f Pl/85 GF Str 3K (24 days)(g) (Down in dist lengths)
37% 58F 9f 1/1 GF Bri 2K (258 days)(g) (UP in dist, + WIN)
.................................. (9%)
Janoueix, ........................................................................................Form =(28) Av = 2.7k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
46% 47D 7f 13/9 St Lin 3K (136 days) (UP in dist, lengths) ***DOWN in class from D IMPROVING ***
43% 67F 12f 9/9 St Lin 2K (175 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
0% 01D 9f 9/51 St Wol 3K (192 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
.................................. (8%)
Hamish G, ........................................................................................Form =(18) Av = 2.3k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
16% 17E 16f 13/89 GS Wor 3K (11 days) (Chk Dist lengths) Same class E, No improv
17% 53F 10f 5/3 St Lin 1K (440 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
54% 56D 8f 3/6 St Lin 3K (482 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (8%)
Knight Of Silver, ........................................................................................Form =(20) Av = 2k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
45% 70G 17f 2/14 GF Her 2K (22 days)(g)(c) (** DIST PLACED) UP in class from G IMPROVING ***
20% 31G 17f 8/50 Hy Fol 2K (147 days) (** DIST lengths)
0% 01G 20f Pl/54 GS Fak 2K (170 days) (Down in dist lengths)
.................................. (6%)
Ronquista D'Or, ........................................................................................Form =(25) Av = 2k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
15% 24G 14f 15/15 GF Not 2K (654 days)(g) (UP in dist, lengths) UP in class from G, BUT chk figures
16% 26E 11f 8/19 GF Hay 2K (676 days)(g) (UP in dist, Unpl)
8% 13F 11f 7/31 St Sth 2K (691 days) (UP in dist, Unpl)
.................................. (3%)
Medkhan, ........................................................................................Form =(27) Av = 2k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
31% 32D 16f 12/83 GF Str 3K (319 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) ***DOWN in class from D, CHK for improv
0% 01E 16f 8/84 Sft Wor 2K (338 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
0% 01F 16f 9/40 St Wol 1K (463 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (2%)
Jesper, ........................................................................................Form =(9**) Av = 3.3k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
0% 01x 12f 3/½L Gd Vit 2K (282 days) (UP in dist, PLACED) UP in class from 2K, CHK for improv
0% 01x 12f 3/1 Sft Vic 5K (295 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
0% 01x 12f 3/4 Gd Vic 3K (319 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (0%)
Kaysa, ........................................................................................Form =(20) Av = 5.3k** , Ab = 5k**
0% 01E 19f Pl/62 GS Her 3K (12 days)(c) (Down in dist lengths) Same class E, CHK for improv
0% 01x 7f 9/3 St Neu 8K (163 days) (UP in dist, lengths)
0% 01x 7f 1/4 Gd Rss 5K (521 days) (UP in dist, + WIN)
.................................. (0%)
Maldoun, ........................................................................................Form =(9**) Av = 7.7k** , Ab = 6k**
0% 01x 12f 5/1 Sft Dea 8K (311 days) (UP in dist, lengths) ***DOWN in class from 8K, CHK for improv
0% 01x 12f 2/1 Sft Sai 8K (337 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
0% 01x 12f 2/1 GS Cha 7K (363 days) (UP in dist, PLACED)
.................................. (0%)
Muallaf, ........................................................................................Form =(30) Av = 2.7k, Ab = , Ab = 0k
0% 01G 16f Pl/64 GF Hun 2K (8 days)(g) (Chk Dist lengths) UP in class from G, CHK for improv
0% 01E 16f Pl/96 Gd Kem 3K (174 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
0% 01E 16f Pl/42 Sft Kem 3K (188 days) (Chk Dist lengths)
.................................. (0%)

Nessie, anywhere you like, don`t worry we`ll find you.

Well done again. You certainly seem to be making the thing look worthwhile.