That'll tell him.

TC,

Who am I to argue with you? I would just like to point out the punter VDW was answering, was not a novice punter. He was asking questions most novices wouldn't have even thought of.

I take it from your answer you have no idea how VDW solved the first example. A bit worrying from someone who contributes to this thread. In fact one of the more sensible ones, up until today's outburst.

I will continue posting on this thread until one of two things happen. Gummy rescinds my membership, or this thread is restored to it's former glory (as someone quoted). I fear the latter will not happen until the newer contributors are engaged with some knowledgeable dialogue. It matters not if you don't agree with my ideas (many don't) but they do have the curtesy to offer an alternative.

I do apologise, it was thoughtless to ask a question you have no idea where to start answering. Maybe I should have asked how do you spell bollocks you could have answered that, or what's that dangling on your chin? You seem to know the answer to that

Have you a better thought out reply JIB?

Be Lucky

I thought it rather unmannerly of Mtoto to ask for the how and why from JiB and TC without first offering his own how and why. This ongoing behavioural tendency amongst the pretenders is that which forces one to the conclusion that they are here in a purely parasitic role scrounging for ideas with nothing themselves to offer.

Mtoto - go on -

Justify your statement - that G.Hall was not a "novice Punter" !

Letter 4 provides "No Clues" !!

You and your kind - are just - again - talking - "Out of your A**se "!!

Justify - Your Statement !!!

Mtoto - from your daft comment regarding my "Cigar" - hanging from my chin - I wonder if your "Alter Ego" is not "philly" ???



My Mate - " Bill " - the "Booky" !!!

Hi everyone.

How goes it? I said I'd respond properly, so here goes…

1. Hidden Factors
Hi Barney. To be honest, I really don’t think that Mr. Van Der Wheil had that many factors in mind when he wrote. That’s not to say that what you have come up with isn’t relevant. Perhaps you have found something just as precious. When you apply your findings, what sort of success rate are you achieving?
Hi Epi. Thanks for saving me some time. I thought Barney was saying he’d actually put his factors on the board.

2. Ability
Hi rmd. I think you are right, hence my suggestion that the punter should use what they feel works best. However, there is merit in the original suggestion nonetheless, if the results are looked at with some common sense thrown in.

3. Ratings
Hi GarstonF. That’s an interesting notion. The capability rating would be something like Postdata maybe? What would you suggest for the probability rating?

4. Consistency & Probability
Hi johnd. The reason I have used probability like that is that Mr. Van Der Wheil has given a set of form figures with a probability rating beside. That is: 111 = 33% 211 = 32% etc. I had taken this to be part of the probability section of the equation, but it does straddle both I would say.
Sorry, but I am unfamiliar with the term “SIAO”, so don’t know what you are referring to.

5. Prominent King
Hi Tuppenycat. Interesting you should bring the old PK example into play. Today I saw what I thought was very similar form in a horse. 2.10 Carlisle – Platinum Charmer. Now before everyone screams at me, I know it wouldn’t be a VDW selection as it is a £3k grade ‘F’. But as an example, ratings gave it the nod, you could scrub all bar one other horse off, but the interesting thing was the weights parallel. Don’t get too excited everyone, the bloody thing lost (backed down from 7/4 to even money). So I am with you. However, your post to Mtoto is out of order. He is entitled to his opinion as you are entitled to yours. Didn’t Mr. Van Der Wheil write something about there being no need to subject other contributors to abuse?
Hi Mtoto. I agree with TC, (although I must say not in the manner in which he answers you). The point you make about BL is a good one though. But if Mr. Van Der Wheil’s ratings put him out of it, then there is no mystery. That is the answer. If you used the Mail and Topspeed, you would not have him out of it. That is my opinion anyway. Perhaps the challenge is to discover his ratings, despite what he said!

6. Dutching
Hi JIB. Mr. Van Der Wheil advocated dutching in his books. And when you accept that this is what may have been going on, the dream of an 85% SR feels an awful lot more like reality. There is a thread on RSUK by a tipster, whose service provides two-in-a-race selections, and he claims to have an 80% strike rate.

Now, Mr. Van Der Wheil told Tony Peach that “you do not tell everyone everything”. What if he’d been on Prominent King and Mr Kildare. And what if Mr. Kildare had won? Instead of discussing the weights, might the text have read “Mr Kildare was far more consistent in higher grade races, whilst Prominent King had only been running in Handicap company”? Even though I’ve just written it, I don’t really believe it, but it’s a thought to ponder anyway.

In conclusion then… more questions than answers. Try to behave like good boys and girls. Good hunting everyone!

BlackCat

This message has been edited. Last edited by: BlackCat,

I dug this up from my files it is a post from Mr Ed, to Mtoto on this thread.

Beacon Light had an overall ability rating of (47), In his previous race he was contesting a lower class race (39) and failed (6-4 from 13-8) that`s down turn No1.
In his penultimate race he contested a class (43) race and won, as previously mentioned the horse now came to a class (39) race and failed, downturn No 2, and for good measure your own beloved S/F`s also show a down turn 109-106. That`s three methods of rating *ALL* showing a downturn.

I hope this helps.

Vdw said that 2 methods of rating showed beacon Light well out of it. If Mr Ed is right then that may be how to go about it.

I have also just been reliably informed by e-mail lol that Beacon Lights form comments in the class (39) race were "Hard Ridden Flat".

Now that it`s come down to it i keep a Raceform Comments glossary so if anyone would find them of any use then id be more than happy to share what a horse actually does or does not do in "that" class at the business end of a race.

The Sex Of The Angels

Mtoto,

I'm not sure exactly what I am supposed to proffer about PK, as I have never professed to have an opinion about it. (To be honest it doesnt interest me in the slightest except for two points that married together I feel may show its true significance):

Firstly that VDW used it as an example to get started.

And secondly that you have never been satisfied by the reasons proferred by others as to how he arrived at it.

These two points I fear describe not only the inherent weakness of VDWology as a whole, but the danger of believing it can surpass the constraints of common sense.

(And heres another theory for PK:

When VDW was looking around for an example to illustrate his methods he 'found' the PK race. Whilst he would have checked it to make sure it fitted, if he was in a rush or distracted he may have let it go to print as an example when if he'd looked in more detail at BL it would not have passed scrutiny.)

Before anyone gets excited by the above, it is only an example of the futility of speculating about something which can never now be proved nor denied and is of absolutely no importance when confronted with reality.

To my mind TC is quite correct when he states that at first VDW wrote to the masses. For the simple reason it makes far more sense from the real worlds point of view.

Trojan has taken the piss out of me , but I think that a lot of vdwers need to see a horse win a race first before they talk about c/f horses. And not up in the grandstand or under some distant tree. But in the enclosure where they can see the winners quivering, steaming flesh, its heaving chest and bulging veins, and the way its keeper proudly treats it. Then perhaps they will begin to understand what is really taking place.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: john in brasil,

I was in a stable/ Canadian Barn last week looking over a recent winner when the head lad walked in brandishing a knife.My heart was heaving! never mind the bloody horses.

TC,

VDW started writing to the SCHB in response to a letter penned by Win of Brighton. In this letter he said he could answer the questions asked by Win, but he didn't give an example of how he would answer the questions. PK was the first example he gave. In the first letter from Mr Hall no questions were asked of VDW. VDW had acknowledged Win's letter, out of curtesy the next letter was addressed to Mr Hall.

Letter 4 does give some basic clues, but leaves more questions than answers. He gives the basic c/rating and say 80% of winners come from the first 5/6 in the forecast. He doesn't explain how he judges ability, he doesn't explain the other ratings. Only to say they have BL well out of it. I can find no commercial ratings that would come to that conclusion. So can you explain how I have made it anymore complicated than it already is.

If our friend from Japan would like to go through the old posts he will find many posts explaining how/why others think it works. This has been done in different ways, but I make BL just not good enough. If the posts are read how I came to that decision is made reasonably clear. There are more than a few posts explaining why others think I'm wrong. So this race has been discussed in some detail, to suggest I want to find something for nothing is quite strange.

I only bought this example up again because JIB asked a new contributor for his thoughts on the race. Rightly, or wrongly I thought the race was being used as an example to gauge his knowledge of VDW.

Black Cat,

VDW used this example without an a/rating, do you think after reading some of his literature this would be the case? On reading this example were you not puzzled how/why BL was out of it. Do you think you have been given enough to make VDW work from this example? There was no coverage of this race in the Mail or indeed most if any of the dailies. For that matter I don't think the racing papers carried many ratings for this race. I have said many times I think the 'other' ratings are of paramount importance. He said he would never explain them, and I think the a/rating as explained was an attempt to stop folks asking about them.

Be Lucky

It was sorted quick enough jib, i aint for geldin lol.

Black Cat
Apologies for the acronym. SIAO refers to 'Spells It All Out',letter 39 in The Golden Years.

Tc
I think you were quite right to point out that the London Newspaper Library is in the other direction. G Hall obviously went a long way in a short time without ever going near it!

Lee
As the subject of ratings has been raised again, could I raise a query from one of your recent posts.
I believe you wrote that ratings are not the answer to VDW, yet I also believe you subscribe to the 'Guest' method.
Both assumptions may be wrong, if so I apologise; but I also believe that ability ratings are the bedrock of the Guest approach, and it is difficult, in that case, to square one statement with the other.
Have you moderated your view, or am I reading something in to it that isn't there?

Mtoto,

I doubt very much that VDW introduced the Ability Rating in order to disguise the scent, so too speak. In the example in which Prominent King was his selection he clearly stated that using two methods of RATING all five horses, Beacon Light was well out of it using both methods.

I think it’s necessary to point out, perhaps not to yourself but to others who may not have the letters, that VDW was definite about his interpretation of ‘Rating’ and ‘Ratings’.

In his reply to JP Hollis he states in reference to RATING and RATINGS that they are “two different matters”, and goes on to suggest that RATINGS are a guide and should be used in conjunction with other factors.

He then suggests that there are numerous methods of RATING and it is simple to devise one yourself, but first a sound basis is required.

Interestingly, his infamous ability rating is introduced – and for anyone that cares, this was no coincidence.

JohnD,

I’m pretty confident that I don’t work in the same way as Guest.

Hopefully the above should answer your question. When I stated that ratings are of little importance to the VDW method, I meant speed and form ratings – such as Topspeed and Racing Post Rating, etc.

Hi WP

Re: Raceform Comments glossary

I would be interested in reading that. if it doesn't take up too much of your time to post. Thanks for the offer.

I am away for a couple of weeks (again... it's a hard life ) Just in UK this time, so fingers crossed for the weather. I will be looking in as the place does have internet access.

BlackCat

Epi,

I will show you a hidden factor, form.

Vdw stated ask the bus driver, Many on here are jumping up and down at the bus, in the busy traffic, shouting "where are you going, where are you going", of course what people fail to realise is that the bus driver is concentrating on the road ahead and cant hear a bloody thing anyway. Fortunately, along time ago, some people found the answer to this problem, THEY PLACE A NUMBER AT THE FRONT, now you can just stand there in magnificent knowledge, that this one is not for me.