JohnD - Calling for exponents of the class/form method to post their findings is of little use if everyone has a different view on how the class/form approach works. I'm sure my approach differs from several people on the board, even the one or two who have realised what I am talking about regards class/form evaluation.

For info, I have made 4 bets at Aintree so far and they were in order Coolnagorna Fell, Native Upmanship Won 5/4, Iris's Gift Won 10/11 and It Takes Time 2nd. Only a modest profit of nearly 1 1/2 points via VDWs staking method, but a profit nonetheless.

All - Todays Grand National breaks down as follows for me. In ability order.

446 Bindaree - Last year's winner hasn't shown a lot this year and a 2nd at Chepstow class 238 against See More Business has been his only form shown. Did show some improvement last time, but not enough to warrant serious consideration.

214 Ad Hoc - Has been mixing hurdles and chase runs this year and his best run came last time at Cheltenham 464 in a hcp chase behind Youllneverwalkalone, though it was not a good performance. Did look to be going ok when brought down last year and the hurdle run against Iris's Gift is pretty good, but not a form horse for this race.

212 Fadalko - Patently out of form and best at much shorter trips.

206 The Bunny Boiler - Gone backwards this year and not a form horse.

191 Katarino - Not a form horse and best at shorter anyway.

190 Shotgun Willy - Showed good form and improvement on first run after a planned layoff when winning at Haydock class 638 over 3 m 4 1/2f with 11-12. This was an improvement on his previous run when a very close 2nd over 4m 1f in the Ayr Scottish national with 11-6. A form horse and the class/form horse with 3lb less to carry, but let's see what else is in the field.

182 Youllneverwalkalone - Won last 2 races of good class, but the signs are that Cheltenham was his target and he is up in distance, class with the same racing weight today. Borderline owing to the run over 2m 5f prior with a lightweight, but on balance not a form horse in the context of this race.

178 Gingembre - Missed last season having won the Scottish National in 2001 with 11-2. Made blunders FTO in the Charlie Hall but stayed on well to run a close 3rd against good horses in a good time. Then went up a fair way in class for the Hennessey hcp with 10-13 and went down by half a length to the winner who carried 10-0 on going not thought to be in the horses favour. Then not seen for 2 months until running a distant 3rd in the Pill Property Gd2 chase at Cheltenham won by Behrajan. Not seen since. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what the trainer has been planning for this horse who will come here fresher than most. The weight is a negative, though the trainer knew the likely situation when mapping out the campaign.

161 Iris Bleu - Has made great strides this season shaking off an unwanted tag from last. Went down fighting in Shotgun Willys race last time having been outclassed at Wincanton and a significant jockey change on the same terms suggests it will be close between both horses again.

On a race class basis, mention should be given to Behrajan and Chives. However the former has it to do over this sort of trip in a handicap against higher rated horses. The latter has been performing with great credit in his second season chasing without winning. The Welsh National was a grand effort, but there are classier horses in this race with good chances and 11-5 is not ideal to break your hcp duck at this level. Better than his rating implies, but not placed to deliver yet.

So in conclusion I see this race as a book to be made with Shotgun Willy, Gingembre and Iris Bleu.

The other races show Impek as class/form and Rooster Booster as class/form. Given the opposition I rate both as good bets. In fact I backed both at the festival. RB has clearly improved out of all recognition and faces an odd bunch this afternoon. Impek came up against the real deal last time and back on a flat track and dropped in class he should also win.

All the best.

Determined,

I've always thought there is little, if anything wrong with your understanding of form. I still have big doubts about some of the things about form reading that are laid at VDW's door.

For what it's worth I think you are dead right with your reading on Pablo's bad run. Even taking that into account, I don't think he had proved he could act in that class.

Have to say I agree nearly 100% with you today. I make Non So the BEST HORSE in the race. Also agree about the course, think the hill was against him last time. There is no way I could back Rooster Booster on this course (failed twice). Chives is my bet in the National, happy to say he is another bet to nothing. Backed him at 25//1 and prices down to 14/1 laid him back at much smaller prices. Don't think the going is anywhere as fast as some people think.

I don't go in for fun bets, but I'm going to have a little on Lord Transcend. He could be anything!! and the price is too good.

Good luck to all, and just hope there are no injuries (horses, or jockeys)

Oh, just how jammy is Dobbin?

Be Lucky

I get iris bleu as c/f and shotgun willy as 2nd cf.

determined,

i have chives as oof AND oof for the race.

at lingfield i think that the c/f will win both races and at hereford there is a false fav.

Nice to see some life back in the thread.

Thanks to all those who have posted this morning.

Mtoto,

I agree the going is definately on the slow side on the Mildmay course but in my opinion the National course is a little better but fast NO.

Guest,

I`m not been clever but if I were into laying horses Gingembre would be one I`d be after today. I just cannot have this one today.

Barney,

oof = out of form ?

Chives in my opinion has been placed `out of it` on his last 2 runs but the opposition he has faced could do no more than bring him on.

The jockey rode a very interesting race in the Gold Cup. He won`t be as handy today until the elbow perhaps.

Good luck to all,

could i put up today my selections for the national,,,,gingembre,...iris bleu,...shotgun willy,,, i have received some information regarding stats, trends.....they are..montys pass....maximize....youlneverwalkalone./good luck to everyone. horses and jockeys alike, thanks for all the useful information,
mtoto, could you contact me, many thanks..grundy.

While Impek is clearly tthe class horse in the race, his last 2 runs suggest that this could be on the sharp side. One to watch at that price?

Impek,

Good call Johnd re` Impek.

Easy to back on course and in the race there was evidence that he does prefer racing right handed.



Rooster Booster,

Mtoto has pointed out RB has failed twice on the course so again should he be left to run at the price ?

Guest

I, too, have Shotgun Willy as the c/f for the National, but I have Iris Bleu (most certainly a form horse) as having an ability rating of 141, not 161, and for me the fourth in the c/f list, behind SW, Gingembre and Behrajan.

For what it is worth, David Lyons is saying that the Nicholls stable is confident that Walsh has made the wrong choice, and that Ad Hoc is the better bet. (However, he also said that Vol Solitaire was expected to finish in front of Le Roi Miguel in the 2.20, so his info. is far from infallible.)

Chives,

Never faced the fences and won`t be seen at Aintree again.

Grundy,

Hope you were on Monty`s Pass.

Someone knew what was going to happen they bet the winner in the big race ante-post for a small fortune.

Jib
it's not about greed,It's about placing horses where they are capable of winning taking into account the opposition.Rooster booster was the c/f horse which i'm sure everybody would agree on,He only went down by a head and given the opposition and what they had achieved and how they had been running in there respective racesthe horse was a good bet

Impek on the other hand,Had good consistent form,Going into the race at cheltenham,I personally wouldn't have backed the horse Because like Statajack i couldn't confidently rule out Azertiyoup,For me to have played on impek today i would have liked to have seen him beaten a lot less than 11 lengths.

JIB
The thing is i have opened my mind,What you can't accept is the FACT that there may be something in these methods and there most certainly is,The difference between me and you john is I have tried to find certain parts of the puzzle that were missing,And after quite a long time i understand what constitutes class and form.Rooster Booster was unlucky today,But that's the way it goes sometimes.

When class and form are mentioned,It takes into account all the runners in the race.Rooster booster wasn't proven at the distance i can't dispute that,But what you need to ask yourself is,Was there another horse in the field that was.There are a few with form over today's trip,Who'd had hard races,rooster booster had done nothing wrong,He won the champion hurdle by 11 lengths And was consistently in form prior to that,again you are condemning the methods just because one horse got beat,I'm pretty sure there have been an awful lot of horses not put on this thread in the past,That have done the business,And knowing what i do now i'm looking forward to the months ahead.

JIB
why has Rooster Booster galloped all over the methods,He was included in a book at cheltenham,Get your facts straight john.

JIB - Why do you continue to say that the method has Rooster Booster wrong when it clearly had him right in the Champion hurdle? But for Richard Johnsons cack handedness it would also have shown that class counts for a lot if the opposition isn't up to much, no matter what the distance.

I suppose now that the handicapper's efforts to make the Grand National a classier affair failed so miserably, you won't pay any attention to him anymore?

One footnote to the Novice chase today, like Le Duc, a horse beaten at short prices a few times does tend to pop up when people least expect it. Obviously Le Roi Miguel was relatively short today anyway, but interesting he was odds on against Sun Alliance Chase winner One Knight in his first race and then a short priced 2nd fav to Impek on easy ground at Sandown.

Grundy - Looks like your emailed info was spot on today.

Hi all,
Re- Rooster Boosters race I think there was a classic case here of what the man(VDW) said.
If there are three horses in the race with form figures 111 then it is 99% certain that the winner will come from these and there is no point looking anywhere else.
As for RB. would he have held on if the jockey hadn't dropped his whip at the crucial stage of the race? In hindsight, (a wonderful thing), I suppose the jockey told you Monty's Pass was in form for the National by selecting him over Youllneverwalkalone. When you think he could have ridden half the field, maybe a case of taking all things into consideration?
See you soon, Mike.