Fulham,

Sorry, I have read your last post a couple of times and I'm not sure I understand it. Is there a particular example you are thinking of?

I only use penalty value when I am checking the old examples to stay in line with VDW thinking. The s/f as such counts for little unless there are 2 or more awarded from the same class of race. Novice or Maiden form wouldn't come into it in a conditions race.

It may be easier to give me the example, and then I can/will explain how it works.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

The example I had in mind was Wing and A Prayer.

Barney,

PABLO Gdwd Aug` 02

In form yes but not a form horse in the context of the Gdwd race ?????

Up in class carrying 10lbs more actual wgt` and against classier horses.

Is that the reasoning why we shouldn`t have considered him at Gdwd ?????

And if that is the case then he must have been classed as in form come the first Newmarket run ?????

Does any of that make sense or am I still not past the first hurdle ?

Cheers,

Spot on Determined...The Goodwood run was an illusion
of form

Mister Ed,

Thanks.

determined,

that is one very important half of "not in form for this race".

he was a good bet in each of the two previous wins.

and now for something completely different


This quote from an interview with Richard Guest, in todays Daily Mail, reminded me of something VDW said:-

'and many times I have suggested watching how a PARTICULAR trainer places his charges.'

quote:

---

Guest believes there is a time and a place for all his horses. 'I am particularly good at placing my horses,' he claimed. 'I do not do anything wrong but I do try to get my horses well handicapped. I think about it and I study it. I don't run in races where a horse can get raised a lot in the weights.'

'I make it my job to find out who is going where and what the ratings are. I might look months ahead. A lot of people do not do that.'

'Sir Mark Prescott, a training and handicapping wizard, used to talk about looking for a loophole. That word maybe gives the impression of something underhand. You are not doing anything wrong. You are looking for opportunities, trying to gain an edge.'

---

Cheers IMP

IMP
Thanks for that what a super informative post
that was

imp,

thanks for that, which type's of race will not attract a rise in the weights?

same question crossed my mind.

answers please on a postcard!

Mtoto - Persian Crown won a lower class conditions race from a newcomer last time having been well behind in a lower class conditions race before. Also beaten in an even lower class conditions race on last run previous season. VDWs way shows him as out of the Kempton handicap race.

Wayward Lad was beaten in lower class by a not very highly rated horse in the run up to Haydock. The big clue to Little Owl in addition to the obvious numerical picture was in VDWs clever reply to WIN of Brighton. VDW said "I notice Lesley Ann, another WIN implied was rubbish, has given Wayward Lad another thrashing at Cheltenham just as she did last year."

When one realises what VDW was NOT spelling all out, a lot of his seemingly strange comments become crystal clear.

Fulham,

When I crashed before Christmas I lost the s/f for this race and it is one I haven't checked. you must have the figures and know how I work them.

Wing And A Prayer as long as the figure I'm looking for isn't in his first race is the likely candidate. If the figure comes from his listed race nothing can touch him.

If Just Alick's figure comes from his 3rd last race and WAAP'S is from his first HE would be the one. With this horse that is the only combination that would make him the horse.

The only other possible is Lucky Rascal if his last race is his best

Sorry about not having the figures, I hope a friend will be sending me a copy in the near future.

Be Lucky

Guest,

I agree VDW did show Persian Crown not to be considered for this race, He wasn't consistent. The thing I can't understand is you say it all balances on relativity. Yes, PC was beaten in a lower class race, but so was Love From Verona, the highest race he had ever contested. PC had won the highest class race apart from Dyscole (that race didn't count) so he was the classiest in the race, this is backed up by the ability rating. In so many of the analyses you seem to be saying the ability rating is worthless, ignore it.

Wayward Lad had been beaten 3 runs ago. He has run twice since and improved, you don't seem to give the improving horse any credit and go back to the bad? race.

Bet VDW had a smile when he later wrote he wouldn't have backed WL if the King George had been at Cheltenham. By then he would have known WL couldn't get up the hill, and beating him at Cheltenham didn't necessarily mean that much.

Be Lucky

mtoto - 2 quick points.

First, the ability rating is only a good guide if the horse is in form, VDWs way. Add in the fact that handicaps by their very nature bring horses closer together.

Secondly - You seem to be implying you only see half the story behind VDWs reply to Win of Brighton. As was so often the case, VDW was saying more than one thing with a seemingly throw away comment. Yes, the point was made re Cheltenham but an even better point was made re opposition. The answer lies in Little Owls recent form.

Mtoto

WAAP's highest sf (78 unadjusted) came in a 3yo race on 8/12/84, in which only four other horses had run previously. Just Alick had achieved an unadjusted sf of 88 in a handicap hurdle on 9/11/84.

More generally, you have said that use of the sf as a means of assessing class means that each race performance is considered. Leaving aside the fact that there were no sfs in the British Form Book for races run in Ireland (which means, for example, that there are no sfs for most of the "good" races won by horses in the 1978 Erin), your mention of Lucky Rascal highlights another gap.

Lucky Rascal's last race prior to the one with WAAP was when a close 3rd in the Challow Hurdle on 29 December 1984, beaten 1.5l by the winner at level weights. Two other hurdle races were run on that Newbury card on the day, the winners returning unadjusted sfs of 93 and 84 in races run 13-14 seconds over standard. No sfs were returned for LR's race, not because (as with one of the chases on the card) it was too slowly run for sfs to be relevant but because "Time not taken".

Mccoy's shoulders better,I'm glad to say.

Mtoto
Quiet a few bullets have been fired at you just lately,I'm going to fire one more.Going back to Feet so fast/Artie,There was a horse that came out of the said race Fayr jag that was considered a good thing on it's next run,Unfortunately the horse missed it's chance but it may still be worthwhile looking at it.

Hello everyone,

I’ve enjoyed going over the recent posts and it’s good to see some healthy exchanges taking place between those who are really interested in VDW. I must say thanks to Mtoto for his posts on how he works the method, even if it is just the very basics, and others for going even further to help those that are seriously interested in bettering their ability to pick winners.

We are only 3 weeks in to the flat season and once again VDW is producing the goods. Although some adjustments have had to be made, given the changes to Split Seconds ratings, there have been 4 horses run so far from my list of horses to follow.

Weavers Pride came out at Doncaster in a low class maiden. Nothing else had shown anything like his form as a 2yo in the Champagne Stakes and in my opinion was a good thing at 6/4. Unigold was also a good thing at Nottingham but un-backable at the price. Tomahawk was another at the Curragh, but again was too short for me. The only horse to run so far that was not worthy of support 1st time out was Titurel. He made his reappearance in a class 85 Conditions race where he finished 3rd with a Speed figure of 99 giving a good account of himself and it’s now time to see where the trainer goes next! The method holds up every year and is incredibly successful. The list will grow over the next few weeks and I’d expect to make around 25 – 30 bets from them in the season.

Which brings me on to the main reason for posting the above. In support of Mtoto I would say that some of the above may bear some resemblance to the way he works for both rules and across all ages. The class of race in which Titurel showed his worth as far as speed figures are concerned was in a class 51 maiden over 1m at Newbury. Out first time as a 3yo in a higher-class conditions race against better opposition told us that it was not yet time. But now its time to keep a close eye on him and see where the trainers decides to go next. Remember the premise for the list he appeared on was – from Split Second’s list select those horses which were raced not more than 3 times without winning and which achieved the rating over a minimum of 7f at Asc, Don, Goo, Nby, Nmk, San, Yor.

In posting the above I’m hoping that Mtoto and others will see that Myself/Guest and others are completely aware of the power of speed when assessing the ability of a horse, and realise that when we harp on about the ability rating and it’s worth we are doing so with a WORKING knowledge of both factors. I’ve been following this method now for a number of years and if I thought that it were a better judge of a horses ability than that VDW showed us for older more exposed types I would stick to it, but in my opinion it isn’t.

Just for interrest, I will post the 'Best Form' horses for tommorrow. As I have not got full access to RP online at the moment, I have used the form fromm the weekender; the rest I will post tomorrow. If anyone could post their c/f horses it would be helpful. Fulham will no doubt post his after the race.

2.00 Yeoman's Point

2.35 Valley Henry

3.10 Dark'n Sharp

4.20 Spctroscope

The above list is purely based on my opinion of best form, and takes no account of the other factors.

john who has the best form in the 4.55 your way?.