Walter,

Montreal, I would say.

What run would make him a form horse for this race lee?

4.55 Montreal

5.30 Coolnagorna

Hi,

My BEST horses today.

2:00 Inching Closer. Slight worry about the course. Here I would like to ask a question. What if any consideration does anyone put on the fact He carried a bigger weight in a low class race at Sedgefield? I can see were John is coming from with his selection. I would have been happier with him if he had been placed, even allowing the distance was wrong.

2:35 Valley Henry. Wouldn't consider him at the price. Course should suit, worry about has the Cheltenham race taken too much out of him? He really did try when the pace came on from the third last.

3:10 Dark And Sharp Course will suit better than Cheltenham.

4:20 This race is full of conflict for me. Not one to bet in, I can't split Spectroscope and Well Chief. The general thinking is the course will suit WC better than Cheltenham. S has won on a sharp flat track, all be it in a lower class race. This race raises 2 important questions How can it be a better class race than Cheltenham, and the ability rating, inches between then and only one has that fact reflected in the rating.

4:55 Montreal is the Best Horse, and the track should suit better than Cheltenham. Not a strong selection for me, and I will be watching the price. With the jockey trainer combination don't expect a fair/true price.

5:30 Coolnagorna is 2nd rated in this race, and there is an obvious worry about the course and going.

Guest,

Once again I must say the fact that the horse was second means very little except it was beaten. For me it doesn't reflect on the strength of the form unless it was a true run race and both horses ran to the best of their ability. I still can't see that Little Owl won his next race proves anything were LA is concerned

Lee,

I didn't reject the ability rating on a whim, I did analyse it over a 3 year period. I just don't think penalty value is a good way to judge the class of a race, NOW.

Investor,

Looking back on my notes I had Fayr Jag (in his last race at Newmarket) out classed, and didn't consider him for the race.

Be Lucky

Mtoto
Well in that case,It is quite obvious to me after all that has been passed to you over the last couple of weeks,That you are quite suer in your own mind that your way is the right way,Which is fair enough,But if you didn't consider Fayr Jag a good bet in that particular race you are looking at vdw from a different angle,Good luck to you though.

Morning,

I`m not looking for selections before the race(s) but come on, we`ve got some bloody cracking racing today.

Lets have a little discussion.

Question - I make In Contrast the top rated horse on ability and despite what VDW says I firmly believe IC will run a hell of a race today.

Is IC in form ? In my opinion YES but is he a form horse in the context of todays race ?

Any comments ?

Cheers,

A/n question,

The bare ability ratings in races 4.20 and 4.55 certainly do not tell the full picture, ie -

Iris`s Gift has the best form but 3rd on ability.

Irish Hussar`s ability rating of 47 suggests in comparison to others in the race he`s not a class horse but his last race certainly suggets his ability rating is not a true reflection of his ability ?

Determined

re In Contrast, I'm interested in your comment "despite what VDW says I firmly believe IC will run a hell of a race today". What is it in your reading of VDW that suggests he would not expect IC to run a good race today?

Fulham,

Please do not take that comment as anything other than my way of stating that I am still a novice, ie - there is no way I can suggest anything positive re` VDW`s thinking until I`m confident in my ability to be on your level.

For what its worth, IC has not carried such a weight to victory in this class. That said, he has carried 12.00 in the Champion Hurdle ( far higher class ).

I will be backing IC today ( my 1st since Pablo ) but I will be having a saver on E.Moment.


At this early stage I believe VDW would have N.Upmanship down as a` good thing` today.

morning determined i make native upmanship a strong bet today if theres any reasons why he wont be winning id like to hear them from anyone.

Determined

I think a bit of a case, VDW-wise, can be made for In Contrast: highest, as you say, on ability, and if one regards the last race as over-ambitious and well above today's class, and "excuses" it, the penultimate race was a good performance. However, like you I regard the weight today as a major worry, and I cannot see IC as a form horse in the context of today's race.

That said, I would not be surprised if IC ran well (though not for me a bet). And it helps put me off what I think is probably a fair bet in the race, a book comprising Emotional Moment and Samon.

Good luck with your bet.

Fulham,

Thanks for the feedback.

Your decision is a book ?

E.Moment by your calulations would be first on class/form ?

With regards Samon - an ability rating of 30. I assume his last run in class 435 when 2nd giving weight to Xenophon is more like his true ability hence his inclusion in your book.

I`m confident the winner is among these 3 so one of us will be collecting today.

The same to you = Good luck,

WALTER,

Edredon bleu is top on the ability rating but his form is mostly 2 miles and had to be well dropped to collect at over the minimum, anyway hes out of form.

cenkos and seebald are more consistent than native upmanship but again the form is mostly at two miles, there is some indication that cenkos could be slightly better for the step up in trip based on the old french form.

in the cheltenham race although the others were lower ability I would have expected that the distance would have suited them more there rather than here today.

I think they will finish in ability order native upmanship and cenkos

Determined

No, I won't be betting in the race. Logically, I think a book on EM and S is probably a fair bet. But apart from my general reluctance to bet at such short odds, a worry about IC puts me off.

As things currently stand, the only "bet" I'll be having at Aintree is the arb. I've already had, courtesy of Pricewise, on Exit Swinger in the 3.45.

However, I also agree with the general view that Native Upmanship is the probable winner of the 3.10 (certainly the c/f). At the right price ....

Fulham
What did you feel was the right price for Native upmanship.

Investor

I work on the basis of my judgement of the probability of a horse winning (obviously subjective) and an unwillingness to bet in circumstances where the average return per bet falls below 50%.

In my view, under today's circumstances Native Upmanship would win twice out of three times, so I wouldn't have considered a bet at less than 5/4, producing a notional return of 1.5 points profit over a three race series.

With the possible book on the 5.30, I wouldn't rate the chances of Emotional Moment or Samon winning at more than one in two, so I would only be interested at better than 2/1.

Fulham
Is that the price at which you will not go below for what was in effect a virtual racing certainty,And value at much lower odds than 5/4.

Thanks for the reply barney he won like we expected he would nice when things go as expected. Openened up an account with bsq this morning they were offering 15/8 by the time i was registered & placed the deposit he was down to 6/4 lol, was slightly peeved but managed to get 7/4 shortly after, i`ve been meaning to find out how to use this betfair but it looks too complicated to my simple mind .

Fulham
How do your figures work at 2 from 2.25