JIB,

I only wish I could take the credit, I am still not convinced I have changed that much. The idea was taken from VDW writings, though I will say it's not the fastest horse I am looking at. VDW said speed by it's self is not enough, and he is right. Ok I'm not the sharpest knife in the draw, and I had to see it written by other people, for it to make complete sense.

The only thing I think VDW was wrong about is weight, it is so simple to blame a horses defeat on weight. He is not alone in his thinking on this subject, so it could be me that has it wrong. I watch race after race were the weight makes little or no difference. Then some well known trainer comes on and comes out with the same old maxim Weight stops trains. I also like the method I use because it is one factor the handicapper doesn't use. Although Mr Smith (the official chase handicapper) did say he always had a quick look at the time a race was run in.

I don't think I am looking back, I want to find out as much as I can about how VDW really worked. The only way to do that is to study HIS examples, and as he is no longer putting up examples I HAVE to go back. People moan that I keep going back to Beacon Light, I will go back until I am happy with the race. It works both ways mine and Guest's, I wish someone would explain how Baronet works c/form. The trouble with c/form is there are too many escape routes. If it doesn't work for the c/form horse, maybe he used the second or third c/form horse. I fail to see if the horse is the c/form horse, why there is a second or third. If there is something against it how can it be the c/form horse?

I have to say I did have a look at the Dosage Method, once. It said before the race the first four home in the Derby were non stayers. I gave up then. At no time have I, or would I, say it doesn't work, just because I don't understand it.

Boozer,

I'm not surprised other people before VDW used prize money to judge class. Did they then suggest the other factors, and how to use them?

DETERMINED
Re Adiemus for the Lincoln; the way he ran last year, on softish ground, and the way he ran again on Saturday, suggests that Saturday's race on what's looking to be a fastish surface, would not be enough of a test for him, (IMO).

johnd,all,,,,could i ask some questions you mentioned you have read most american books on horse racing, do you think van der wheil, also looked at the american racing scene, as he was very well travelled,books by robert dowst, had all the ingrediants consistency,percentages,class,defined i believe in the 1930s,also bob mcnight,how to pick winning horses, 1963,eliminate the losers,how to beat the claimers,,,,have you also come across frederick davies, book,,percentages and probabilities, of course van der wheil adapted his methods to the racing in this country,to which a lot of devotees are benefitting from now.steve ahern, must be rated one of the most successful professional punters also of the same era.

Determined,

This is the article that made me re think Spirit Leader. It may be of some help, and at least help some to re think their ideas about weight. In particular the idea that if a horse can carry a big weight in a lower class, it means nothing, when raised in class.

Class, at least as a speed handicapper defines it, is the ability to withstand the effect of pace. As a horse steps up in class, it will be required to run faster fractions. A horse of high class will not find this a problem. But one reaching the ceiling of its class will struggle if any one fraction of the race is run faster than it can manage. A horse with a turn of foot, for instance, will be unable to quicken if tired by a sterner early pace. Likewise, a front-runner will be unable to dominate if faster horses press it for the lead through the early stages. This class factor is clearly demonstrated in the results of restricted handicaps. A horse rated 70, for example, may be able to win readily carrying 10st in a 0-70 handicap, but will often fail from the same mark if stepped up to 0-90 grade. It has less weight to carry the second time, but it cannot cope with the faster pace. In short, it does not have sufficient class. The tough mare Salska is a good example of a handicapper with a class barrier. During a 49-race career to the end of 1998, Salska won seven staying handicaps-all no better than 0-75. She was beaten on all 17 starts in better class. Contrary to popular belief, small horses are not better off with lightweight. Extra weight does have a slightly greater effect on small horses, because it represents a greater percentage of their body weight. But a small horse is still much better off with a big weight-and the class factor on its side. One way to prove this is to look at the respective records of male and female horses carrying big weights in handicaps. Fillies and mares weigh less on average than colts and geldings and provide a test of the effect of weight. It is clear that, between the sexes, there is no variation in the advantage of carrying big weights. Thus body weight is largely irrelevant when considering the effect of weight-the class factor is far more important. When a horse drops into a lower-class handicap, it picks up a bigger weight, but it will usually have more chance of winning, all other factors being equal. Conversely, a horse stepping up in grade will often fail to match a Topspeed figure earned in lower class, unless it is an improving sort, because it will lack the basic speed required to be competitive. So when you are scanning the Topspeed ratings in the form before a race, throw out figures earned in lower-class races unless you are satisfied the horse in question is on the upgrade. Similarly, take note of runners dropping in class and expect them to run well, unless the drop is so sharp that it suggests all is not well.

I have cut the statisics out of the article. As Guest says they prove nothing.That could also be said about the form figure statistics VDW based his method on.

Be Lucky

Fulham,
Sorry for the delay. The conditions would need to be the same as for my consistency question, namely that the examples were all described as bets/good things etc. I think as per "Spells it out", that it should be top 4 ability from the full fields and not just the top 5 in the betting, if thats not too much trouble.
Thanks,

Statajack

I'll look at some more in due course, but the first dozen provides 6 that were in the four highest ARs, and 6 that were not:

In top 4: Rifle Brigade, Derrylin, Orchestra, Celtic Pleasure, Swiss Maid and Buckskin;

Not in top 4: Prominent King, Battlement, Spartan Missile, Baronet, My Therape and Love from Verona.

Johnd,

My comment re` Adeimus was of course made without a full evaluation of the field therefore in hindsight I should have waited.

Your comment re` Adeimus requiring more of a test would appear a very sound one given his record over 10 furlongs on the sand at Lingfield.

2 points to note (a) his defeat in the Lincoln last year was his 6th race in 2 months which may have meant he wasn`t at his best that day ? and (b) his sire Green Desert, from memory loved top of the ground.

It could well be that a true run race over a straight mile on top of the ground could see an even better horse ?

For what its worth I have been going to back Pablo for this race ever since he did the business for me at Newmarket last backend but I need the soft ground which judging by the way he ran on Gdwd last year is essential to him.



Mtoto,

A very good read your latest post re` weight. A big thank you.


Cheers,

Spirit Leader,

Another question if I may.

Was SL the class/form horse for the Pierse Hurdle on 11/01/03 although not a bet ?

Any help with be gratefully received,

Cheers,

Fulham,
Thanks for your initial findings. Interesting the high percentage not in the top 4 rated from these early "pre-ability" examples, I wonder if the picture will change for those bets which came after the first mention of the ability rating?
regards,

Statajack

To give the "post AR" examples a quick test I've pulled out details on nine of the bigger field races where I've the data immediately to hand, with the following results:

in top 4 ARs: Sunset Cristo, Ekbalco, Broadsword, Roushayd, Nomadic Way

not in top 4 ARs: Kings Ride, Justafancy, Desert Hero, Pegwell Bay.

I doubt this is going anywhere, as in my view the real question for VDW was whether his bets were top (or perhaps sometimes second) in the rank order of ARs of the form horses. Thus on my calculations Desert Hero was 12th equal in the rank order of ARs, but in VDW's judgement the top 11 were not form horses and so not potential winners. However, I'll have a look at some others as and when.

Mtoto - The answer to Baronet and the c/f situation is staring you in the face if you look at the form with the idea in mind that class of horse is not the same as class of race.

With the same idea in mind try looking at Flagship Uberalles in the 2002 Queen Mother Champion Chase.

March 15th

"It's time for me to call it a day on the posting front."

I think they've rumbled you Guest. They are not all begging you to stay the way they usually do when you say you're leaving. It looks as if it did not work this time they know you can't stay away.

Guest,

As I have said I can make it work my way, no trouble. Your way I have trouble getting past Town And Country, Petronski, and even Claudio Nicolai.

Cambridgeshire Newmarket This is a 9f race on a stiff course.

Town And Country ability rating 60* c/rating 6 or 4. In form beaten a length and a half in a Group 3 last time. Can carry the weight, won a 70 handicap carry 10st. I can see VDW may not have liked the weight. and possibly the distance. He has won at 10f and it would take a brave shout to say Hern has got it wrong. As this is VDW, and the weight problem I accept he was passed over.

The main problem Petronski ability rating 39* c/rating 9. He has beaten Baronet the last twice they have meet. If Baronet is a form horse so is Petronski. Both are carrying less weight than when they last met, and there is no obvious reason on the form, why the positions can be reversed.

If the c/form horse is the highest on ability that is in form, how is it Baronet? His ability rating is 17*

I may have this wrong, but to get Baronet's TRUE ability you have to go a lot further back. This would not show in the ability rating used by yourself. It also makes it nearly impossible for many, who think the c/form can be found by using just the last three runs.

* Is because these figures could be slightly out, but not enough make Baronet the selection.

This is why I am having problems.

Be Lucky

Baronet / Petronisi,

I`ve had a very quick look this morning and 2 things spring to mind which I accept maybe wide off the mark so apologies if I`m on the wrong track.

Petronisi had actually beaten Baronet 3 times this year and like Mtoto why should the placings be reversed in the Cambridgeshire ?

Could I offer the view that Petronisi`s defeat ( but awarded race ) in his last race worth £2870 was considered a downturn given that in his previous race he had won race 2825 worth £7288 in good style.

Also, his style of running wouldn`t be ideal for this course/distance.

In short, was Petronisi a form horse but not in the context of the Cambridgeshire.

Baronet was beaten by Petronisi in race 3505 worth £2870 and the same view could be made, ie - if he cannot win a race of such value how on earth can he be considered in form for a £18053 race ?

I note Baronet was 2nd in the previous years Cambridgeshire having run a similar race last time in a race worth £1390.

Does anything I`ve said have any bearing on the matter ?

ALSO, if anybody would be prepared to answer my question on Spirit Leader I`d be very grateful.

Cheers,

determined,

I remember having a quick look at the race, I had her as c/f.

My notes state, that unlikely because of the weight against this class and she has just failed a number of times when carrying a similar weight-note trainers comment.

Mtoto/Determined

When viewed from a conventional view, the Petronisi/Baronet situation in the 1978 Cambridgeshire does look odd and, as Determined says, given the history of the two why should anyone expect Baronet to prevail?

From a VDW perspective, the answer is essentially the same one that made Prominent King a "good proposition" for the class 90 1978 Erin when, lto, he was beaten 5l in a class 6 - ie how VDW assessed in-formness. As Guest has told us many times, including in his 12.54am post, the class of a race and of the horses taking part are not one and the same. The Cambridgeshire situation looks quite different if VDW's approach to in-formness, which includes this dimension, is applied.

mtoto,

you state that you now know there is a difference between oof and oof for the race

petronisi is clearly out of form and yet baronet is not. Now why would that be?

There is an almost identical situation to the LFV horse you didnt get as oof.

There is also some similarity with a recent in form runner HORUS which caused a similar problem for some, Guest commented on it but I dont remember how far he went in saying why.

Mtoto

I received a copy of Browzers' "A Catalogue of Books on Betting", Spring 2003, this morning, which includes details of a forthcoming booklet edited by Tony Peach which may be of interest to you, and indeed to others. This is the relevant para:

"VDW is back ... Poste haste. Tony Peach is editing a new book called Van Der Wheil and Career Best Speed Figures based on the fundamental methods of Van der Wheil's teachings and the career best speed figures in the Racing Post. Publication is expected in the near future. Price is likely to be £12 but £10 if ordered in March/April".

HELP,

how many jumps horses are there?

how many flat horses are there?

Morning All

Received a catalogue from Browzers this morning.

A New book from Moss Publications. Van der Wheil & Career Best Speed Figures.
Price likely to be £12. If ordered in Mar/Apr only £10.

Delboy