Mtoto

re Baronet, you wrote:

"As I have said if Baronet was in form so was Petronsis. There is no way you can make one in form and not the other."

From a traditional form analysis point of view, I'd agree with you. But as Guest regularly points out, various aspects of VDW's approach were contrary to commonly held viewpoints.

From his perspective that the class of a race is not the same as the class of the horses taking part, VDW most assuredly saw Baronet as a form horse and Petonisi as not a form horse. Bearing that perspective in mind, do you not see a difference in the profile of the two horses over their last three runs that supports VDW's conclusion?

Fulham,

The thing I find a bit strange in all this is when I first looked at this race many months ago, I had eliminated Petronisi no trouble. It was when Guest posted some c/form horses that were not to me consistent. To get back to this race.........

Petronisi won a 28 race at Ascot albeit on an objection
He won a 72 at York in the race before
He failed in a 104 at Redcar

Baronet was 3rd in the 28 race at Ascot
He won a 38 at Sandown
he finished 3rd in the 72 at york

The one thing I don't like is when Petronisi was raised to a 104 he failed. As he struggled to in the 28 after winning the 72 it could also be argued he is not progressive. Couldn't that same argument be levelled at Baronet? In fact his profile is worse. If you take the line P failed when raised in class to a 104, the same can be said for B except he hadn't been tried at that level in the last three runs. This then brings us to B hadn't won a race of 100 or anything near that. So why is he more likely to succeed than Petronisi? He has been placed in good races without winning, but that doesn't count we are looking for winners. This can be a bit confusing as VDW did say to look and see how it won or WHAT beat it, and by how much.

For me this race is exactly the same as PK in the Erin. Trying to win the race at the second attempt. Having the class and form to do so, but not as the c/form horse as explained by Guest. Although I don't doubt it can be MADE to fit the c/form profile with a little juggling. That's how I see it, I would be more than happy to have it explained to me. In private, if you, or Guest feel inclined.

Be Lucky

Mtoto

With respect, you continue to ignore the point that Guest has emphasised. You evaluate the two horses from the perspective of the class of the races in which they ran, but not the perspective of the class of the horses against which they ran. VDW did both.

There is indeed a parallel with Prominent King. If (as I and, I'm sure, Guest, believe) VDW saw PK as a form horse, it is surely certain that he did not do so from the perspective of the class of the last race he contested.

Mtoto - Petronisi failed in 104 then dropped to collect at York with Baronet just behind giving weight in 3rd. Baronet then won dropped in class with 10-0 then met Petronisi again carrying 10-0 this time giving Petronisi weight, both horses dropping in race class, though one of them was dropping a long way having won a good class handicap.

Surely, given that VDW absolutely did figure weight into his calculations, Baronet deserved great credit for his weight carrying efforts and remaining consistently in form. In form relative to the Cambridgeshire where he had 9-0 that is.

The answers are all there in the form of the Cambridgeshire runners just as they were in the form of the Erins. Did Drumgora not beat Prominent King in a handicap on the same course just a few weeks earlier?

As to the speed figure issue, we have covered that many times and I say again - How do you explain Love From Verona, Orchestra,etc ?

VDW said it was the balance between class and form. Speed is part of the form element in my view.

I'm not even going to discuss ORs because I am adamant they were not part of the process, certainly not as far as class and form go.

GUEST
Reluctant as I am to go through old races,being at a loose end, I thought I would have a look at Baronet.
Looking at Baronet's and Petronisi's last 3 races, and applying ONLY the criteria set out in that very important sentence in S.I.A.O., it quickly becomes obvious which horse will stay, (Again, taking account of class, course, going, and likely pace), and which horse won't.
No assumptions, no 'idiosyncratic reading of form', no 'relative weights', and no manipulation, just looking at it like the man said.
The result, of course, bears this out, but G Hall didn't have that advantage.

GRUNDY,

Of course ther are common factors with all those, can you be more specific.
One thing that I am looking at with roushayd is the fact that VDW didnt consider him worthy of support fto, we all know vdw was not afraid to back fto horses. This suggests to me that roushayd was not a form horse, yet on his penultimate run he had just won a high class 641 handicap!! Yet was not even considered for a class 50, on his debut, at his optimum trip.

mtoto,

that was to show petronisi's shortcomings.

Grundy,

that fact also has implications for the horses to follow list, first and then placed in last two runs of previous seasons.
It seems to me VDW was specifically identifying capable horses that next put in an out of form performance. He was a clever bugger him.

JohnD - Can you really not see the weight situation in Baronet and many other VDW handicap selections form?

The implications of how Baronet may perform at Newmarket over 9fs are clearly in his close 2nd the previous year. I seem to remember recently someone saying Kempton was not the track for Best Mate. It didn't stop him winning and running 2nd in it for the last two seasons.

And how did Best Mate manage to run so well on a course that clearly does not suit him..............CLASS!!!......and a lack of the same factor from others concerned.

This factor alone once grasped is a critical element in certain types of races throughout the year.

"r"

barney thanks for your reply, the factors that seem to be missing in park express compared to roushayd, park express wins to date before the lancashire oaks, were winning a maiden, compared to roushayd as van der wheil stated ;is a good horse capable of winning high class races;... can you suggest any other factors?
guest, mtoto,,fulham,,pipedreamer, johnd, does a horse have to have shown they can carry .the weight in the class, now running in.

john duncan

Guest/Fulham.

If I'm reading this right you have both come up with Baronet, but for different reasons. As I haven't a record of the ability ratings I can't comment on Fulham's suggestion, about a hidden horse in one of B's races.

Guest seems to be suggesting the drop in weight swung it for B. He carried 9st in the race, a drop of 14lbs on his last 2 races. However he carried 8st 9lbs in the 72 race and was beaten just under 2 lengths by Petronisi. Can't see why the drop in weight would make a difference this time.

For me it was the likely hood of having a stronger pace, it would suit B and not P. How did he know that? Baronet's best races have been when there are 15 or more runners to insure a good pace. Interestingly B has only run badly twice in races with plenty of runners. Both times in the Linclon, wonder if there may be a clue there for other examples?

Non of this changes the fact that to find this class form horse you can't just use the last three runs. I don't think I'm the only person that looking at the examples VDW gave for Boxing day, must think he was only using the last three races. That is why I wouldn't call this example a working of the c/form method.

Guest says s/f are of use in form, I use them to define CLASS. You ask about the other examples, yes Love From Verona gave me problems. This can be overcome by the fact there is only one horse to consider when the guide lines have been followed. Son Of Love is the one that causes a bigger problem, I would like to see that one worked by others. Ok I have to admit I wouldn't have back either of the above horses, that is more than compensated by the winners I find, that others miss.The other early examples have given me no problems at all, they work the other way

Pipedreamer,

I think you are right. Possibly part of my problem is I started backing horses when Arkle was in his prime. Someone said, you can't handicap class.

Be Lucky

Mtoto,

Arkle, what a horse. I've never seen one like it since and doubt I ever will. That said, Flyinbgbolt of the same time wasn't too bad either. Thanks for bringing back the memories.

Oldtimer

Hi old timer/mr moto, Hens man thinks best mate is at least equal if not better than arkle & he rode against him, his view is that the mate would have too much speed for him, ive only ever seen race footage of arkle on tv & listened to racing folklore so was never fortunate enough to see the great horse in the flesh, but one can understand why we as racing enthusiasts get attached to certain horses, ive had a personal liking for best mate for a little while now .

Mr.Moto

If you are able to eliminate Town & Country from the 78 Cambs. then you must be able to knock out Petronisi as the reasons are the same, as indeed is Beacon Lights elimination.

Mr e d.

I think I would have been more worried about Town And Country than VDW, but for me he was eliminated because he was second in the ability ratings (the ones I use). I think VDW would have eliminated him because of the distance, if not the weight. I wouldn't have found it so cut and dried. He had won good class handicaps carrying 10st, he had won over 10f on easy flat courses. Putting myself in VDW's place (he had taken the view he wasn't a form horse) it had to be one of the reasons given above. I'm sorry, but I can't find any resemblance between the two horses, I would appreciate any guidance you feel able to give.

Walter,

Who am I to argue with Terry B? Best Mate has proven he has class, and training techniques have improved. Arkle was a one off, and the handicap system had to be change to accommodate him. One set of marks if he ran, and another if he didn't. If he ran the rest were ALL in the long handicap, including Mill House, and other horses that went on to win Gold Cups. I feel Arkle would have treated BM, the same as BM did to the runners in this years Gold Cup. Burnt them off between the 3rd and 2nd last fences, completely blowing away any horse that tried to stay with him. I don't have any s/f for Arkle, wish I had. He was all class, and when he was beaten the horses that finished in front of him knew they had been in a race.

Your not Mr e d are you? he is the only one who calls me Mr and spells my name wrong.

Be Lucky

I'm sure the merits of weavers pride had been seen prior to the race being run today,2 yr olds to follow and all that.

Mtoto

Having endured your wrath on more than one occasion, if you don't mind I'll leave it to others in the room to answer your question, I know for a fact that at least 3 others in the room could answer it for you. However I would mention that Boozer, although unwittingly, went a considerable way to-wards answering your question recently, sadly though he too suffered one of your volleys. Also it looks more and more likely that your weights theory is going to come back to haunt you.

MTOTO
Look at Town And Country from the way VDW told us to.
In his penultimate race, a good class race over an extended 10f at Donny, on good ground, and run at a fast pace, the form reads;

Hdwy 3 out, led ins fnl f, drvn clr, won by 5l.

In other words, the horse was doing all of his best work at the very end of this stiff test. His trainer probably thought so too, as his next race was over 12f.
The way he ran in the Cambridgeshire entirely supports this view.
As Pipedreamer rightly says, a horses' class will often carry him through a race over the wrong distance, but not against horses of the same class.

Johnd,

Thanks for that. I was trying to read the form from a photo copy of the Sporting Life for that day. The print is a little fuzzy, and not that clear. I did think his last race was over 10f as well.

I don't want you to misunderstand me, but I think today was a classic example of why I don't take any notice of weight. The people I have explained how I work to, can confirm that A Piece Of Cake was the BEST HORSE in the race. I think most would have crossed him out as carrying too much weight. My son put the bet on, he followed my reasoning to the letter, even down to the distance factor. The horse had never tried the distance, so had never failed at it.

Mr E D.

You may be right and the weight factor will come and bite me in the a***, but I have had plenty of winners to soften the blow. There are plenty of examples from VDW were he has backed horses carrying more weight.

Be Lucky

I know vdw wasn't too forthcoming with sprinters,Iv'e done all the groundwork that in my interpretation is needed to find selections,And in the 3.40 don i can't split SMOKIN BEAU/NEEDWOOD BLADE therefore i will go dutch,